By Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 25 September 2019, www.thecommunists.net
I would like to share with the readers some observations on the world situation. To make it clear, this is not a comprehensive analysis of the world situation. i I rather want to limit myself to point out some, as it seems to me, highly interesting developments.
It strikes me as highly remarkable that several of the most important figures representing the spearhead of the Western imperialist counter-revolution are tottering. The gang leaders of Western Counterrevolution – Trump-Netanyahu-MBS-Sisi-Johnson – are faltering. Neither of them is out but each of the is weaker than ever before.
U.S. President Trump seems to have crossed a certain Rubicon by pressurizing the Ukraine government to help him by criminalizing Joe Biden, the leading contender of the Democrats for the upcoming presidential election. In addition, the U.S. Administration has suffered a series of public humiliations by military strikes of Iran in reaction to the aggressive sanctions campaign launched by Trump one and a half years ago. ii Furthermore, Trump is stuck in a trade war which he launched in 2018 against China and which he claimed was “easy to win” (remarkable words for history!). It is now evident that whoever will win this trade war, it won’t be the Orange Man! iii
Needless to say that Trump has already provoked the hatred of large sections of the working and middle classes (as well as the bourgeoisie) by his unique combination of arch-reactionary attacks, utter stupidity and outright failures. No one likes a king who pushes boundaries in evilness as well as dumbness and who is a looser at the same time! All this has resulted now in the launching of a formal impeachment inquiry – a nearly unprecedented development in modern U.S. history! iv
Netanyahu, the longest serving Prime Minister of Israel and the driving force in an unashamed racist radicalization of the Zionist society, is now weaker than ever before. Trump’s closest ally in the Middle East has lost two elections in the last six months. Last week he was stopped from launching a war on Gaza by the Attorney General of Israel. Discredited by a lengthy list of corruption cases, he might soon switch the governmental office with the front row of the courtroom. v
General Sisi, the tyrant of Egypt since July 2013, faces now a spontaneous popular uprising. Years of bloody repression with thousands killed and tens of thousands in prison could not silence the masses. His military dictatorship is a pillar of the counterrevolutionary offensive which was waged against the Great Arab Revolution beginning in 2011. A fall of the Sisi regime would have tremendous repercussions and would immediately open a new period of the revolutionary process in the Middle East. vi
His brother in crime and financier, Mohammed bin Salman, likewise faces huge problems. Discredited around the world after the barbarous murder of the oppositional journalist Jamal Khashoggi one year ago, he is facing now a humiliating defeat in Yemen. vii Years of unlimited bombardment and the killing of tens of thousands of people did not succeed in smashing the heroic Yemeni resistance. viii Quite the opposite, the Yemeni collaborators of the Saudi-led military alliance have fallen out with each other and started a bloody civil war among themselves! As it is well-known, MBS is another close ally of Trump.
Related to this is the end of the crucial counterrevolutionary Gulf alliance between Saudi-Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. These two gangsters have now started to turn against each other.
In addition, MBS just faced a major humiliation when Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure was attacked and severely hit on 14 September, resulting in the greatest disruption on record for world markets. All the billions of dollar spent for the most modern weaponry could not stop this attack by drones and cruise missiles (in fact, the Saudis and their American masters did not even see this attack coming until the oil fields were burning!).
We note in passing that another important figure in this counterrevolutionary alliance, General Haftar in Libya, has also suffered a series of setbacks in his military offensive against Tripoli. ix
Add to this Trump’s new twin, the blond clown in Downing Street No. 10. Boris Johnson tried everything to launch a coup against the parliament and to push through his reactionary Brexit project. Despite all efforts, he first suffered a series of defeats in parliament and now the Supreme Court just quashed his decision to shut parliament. x
Let us add to this that Macri, the conservative whip of neoliberal reforms in Latin America, faces near certain defeat in the upcoming Presidential elections in Argentina. Brazil’s version of Trump remains in power. But Bolsonaro is certainly weaker than he was a few months ago. xi
The Eastern counterparts to these gang leaders are less struck. Xi, Putin, Rouhani and Assad face certainly not as many challenges to their rule as Trump-Netanyahu-MBS-Sisi-Johnson do. None of them seems to be close to removal – in contrast to their Westerns counterparts.
Nevertheless, each of them also faces serious domestic challenges. The Stalinist-capitalist regime in Beijing faces a popular insurgency in Hong Kong – the most serious unrest in China since Tiananmen in 1989. xii The results of the communal elections in Moscow and the series of arrests around this event suggest that the Kremlin’s rule is less stable as it seemed to be. Assad has still not managed to defeat the Syrian Revolution which is continuing its heroic liberation struggle in Idlib. And he has no chance in winning the civil war without the massive help of Russia and Iran. xiii And the Mullah regime in Teheran has also faced a series of protests in the last year.
To avoid any misunderstanding: we do not predict the immediate downfall of the Trump-Netanyahu-MBS-Sisi-Johnson gang. Each of them can manoeuvre to survive for some time (and one or the other probably will succeed in this). But the very fact that the Holy Alliance of Western Counterrevolution is severely battered is in itself highly relevant for all those committed to the struggle for a socialist future! It demonstrates once more, as the RCIT has pointed out numerous times, how wrong those socialists have been who pessimistically view the world situation as thoroughly reactionary or counterrevolutionary and hereby ignored the extraordinary instable and contradictory nature of the current historic period! xiv
As I said before, these are only brief observations which cannot replace a comprehensive analysis of the world situation – a world situation which is characterized by the decline of capitalism (the next Great Recession has already started or is very close to that), the accelerated rivalry between the imperialist Great Powers U.S., China, EU, Russia and Japan (Global Trade War, etc.), the escalation of counterrevolutionary assaults (Kashmir xv, Palestine, South Africa xvi) as well as ongoing or new upsurges of important class struggles (Syria, Egypt, Yemen, Algeria, Sudan xvii, Hong Kong, Yellow Vests in France xviii, mass protests in Honduras xix, the global Climate Strike movement xx, etc.).
Nevertheless, I think that these brief notes are sufficient to draw attention to the fact that big things are coming. Political contradictions are accumulating and quantity might transform into quality rather sooner than later! Watch out, comrades, and prepare!
i The RCIT publishes comprehensive analysis of the world situation on an annual basis. Here is our latest document: World Perspectives 2019: Heading Towards a Volcanic Political Eruption. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, 2 March 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2019/. This document contains links to earlier World Perspective documents.
ii See on this e.g. RCIT: Aramco Attack: Defeat the US/Saudi/Israeli Warmongers! Defend Iran against any imperialist aggression! But no political support for the reactionary Mullah Regime in Teheran! 16 September 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/aramco-attack-defeat-the-us-saudi-israeli-warmongers/
iii The RCIT has published a number of documents on the Global Trade War. They are collected in a special section on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/
iv See on this e.g. Yossi Schwartz: United States: The Need for a Labor Party, 23 July 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/north-america/united-states-the-need-for-a-labor-party/
v See on this e.g. the latest statement of our section in Occupied Palestine / Israel: ISL: Israel: On the Results of the National Elections, 21.09.2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/on-the-results-of-the-national-elections-in-israel/
vi See on this e.g. RCIT: Egypt: Bring Down the Tyrant Sisi! Spontaneous mass protests shatter the military dictatorship of General Sisi, 23.09.2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/egypt-bring-down-the-tyrant-sisi/
vii See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: The Barbaric Slaughter of Jamal Khashoggi, 13.10.2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/the-barbaric-slaughter-of-jamal-khashoggi/
viii See on this e.g. RCIT: After the Death of Saleh: Continue the Defense of Yemen against the Al-Saud Gang of Aggressors! 12.10.2017, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/yemen-after-the-death-of-saleh/
ix See on this e.g. RCIT: Libya: Defend Tripoli! Defeat Haftar! For Popular Militias to organize an independent struggle against the counterrevolution! 9 April 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/libya-defend-tripoli-defeat-haftar/
x Our British comrades have published a number of articles on the actual developments around the Brexit crisis. Here is the latest: Joseph Adams: Britain: Defy Boris Johnson's Coup Attempt to suspend Parliament! Organize Mass Protests up to an Indefinite General Strike! 06.09.2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/uk-defy-johnson-s-coup-attempt-to-suspend-parliament/
xi Here is the latest statement of our Brazilian section: CCR: Brazil: Bolsonaro’s Auto-Putsch Failed! Workers on the move to the general strike on June 14! 31 May 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/latin-america/brazil-bolsonaro-s-auto-putsch-failed/
xii Here is the latest RCIT statement on the mass protests in Hong Kong: RCIT: China: Solidarity with the General Strike in Hong Kong! For an international solidarity movement as the Stalinist-Capitalist regime in Beijing prepares a brutal crackdown! 01 August 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/solidarity-with-the-general-strike-in-hong-kong/
xiii The RCIT has published a number of booklets, statements, and articles on the Syrian Revolution that can be accessed on a special sub-section of this website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/collection-of-articles-on-the-syrian-revolution/. Here is our latest article by Michael Pröbsting: Syria: The Fall of the Martyr City Khan Sheikhoun. Despite this setback, the struggle against the tyranny of the Assad regime continues! 22 August 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/syria-the-fall-of-the-martyr-city-khan-sheikhoun/
xiv For the RCIT’s analysis of the present historic period see e.g. Michael Pröbsting: The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, RCIT Pamphlet, May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; RCIT: Advancing Counterrevolution and Acceleration of Class Contradictions Mark the Opening of a New Political Phase. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries (January 2016), Chapter II and III, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 46, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2016/; Michael Pröbsting: The Great Robbery of the South. Continuity and Changes in the Super-Exploitation of the Semi-Colonial World by Monopoly Capital. Consequences for the Marxist Theory of Imperialism (Chapter 14), RCIT Books, Vienna 2013, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/great-robbery-of-the-south/.
xv The RCIT has published a number of documents on the national liberation struggle in Kashmir that can be accessed on a special sub-section of this website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/collection-of-articles-on-the-liberation-struggle-in-kashmir/
xvi See on this e.g. ANSA (Nigeria): Statement on the Xenophobic Attacks in South Africa, 4. September 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/ansa-nigeria-statement-on-xenophobic-attacks-in-south-africa/
xvii The RCIT has published a number of statements and articles on the revolutionary process in Algeria and Sudan that can be accessed on a special sub-section of this website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/collection-of-articles-on-2nd-wave-of-great-arab-revolution/
xviii See on this e.g. RCIT: France: Defend the “Yellow Vests” Movement against State Repression! Build local Action Committees! Push the Trade Unions to Join the Movement! Organize an Indefinite General Strike! 03.12.2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/france-defend-the-yellow-vests-movement-against-state-repression/
xix See on this e.g. Tomás Andino Mencía: Del auge al ocaso de la dictadura de “JOH”, 18 julio, 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/forum/del-auge-al-ocaso-de-la-dictadura-de-joh/; SOLIDARIDAD TOTAL CON EL PUEBLO HONDUREÑO, Declaración conjunta de la Agrupación de Lucha Socialista y Partido Obrero Socialista (México), 25.7.2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/solidaridad-total-con-el-pueblo-hondureno/
xx See on this e.g. RCIT: Revolutionary Change to End Climate Change! Only expropriation of the capitalist corporations opens the road towards the end of climate change, 20 September 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/revolutionary-change-to-end-climate-change/