Notes on Russia’s role in the current world situation, the global class struggle and revolutionary regroupment
By Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 5 November 2022, www.thecommunists.net
In the past period, we have put much emphasis on the ongoing analysis of the political crisis, social contradictions and class struggle in Russia. The reasons for this are obvious.
1) Russia is one of a handful of imperialist Great Powers. [1]
2) The Ukraine War, which the Kremlin has launched on 24 February, is one of the largest wars since decades with no end in sight. [2]
3) This war has direct (and devastating) consequences first and foremost for the Ukraine – but not only! It bears also massive ramifications for the global economy and world politics. See the food and energy crisis, [3] see the dramatic acceleration of the Great Power rivalry, etc. [4]
We will not deal with the analysis of these developments at this place since we have already done so in much detail in other documents (see the RCIT’s literature mentioned in the footnotes). In the article at hand, we rather like to draw attention to some additional issues. While they might be less in the fore of public attention, they seem to us nevertheless as highly important for socialists.
The weakest link of the imperialist chain
First, it is important to recognise that among the Great Powers, Russia is currently the weakest link of the imperialist chain. While its economy is dominated by a domestic monopoly capital, it is without doubt weaker than the combined power of its Western rivals. (Things would be different if Russia would be confronted by individual European states or even by Europe without the U.S. but this is currently not the case.)
For this reason, Russia suffers from the financial and economic sanctions of the “collective West”, albeit less than Washington and Brussels had hoped for. [5] These sanctions could become really harmful in the longer term if Russia does not manage to replace high-tech imports from Western countries like chips.
At the same time, the Putin regime is waging the largest war which an imperialist power has initiated since many decades – at least since the U.S. war in Vietnam in 1965-75. Of course, it is not the largest war from the perspective of the victims, i.e. from the peoples in the semi-colonial countries facing rape by the imperialist predator. Iraq and Afghanistan suffered for many years of devastating wars and occupation regimes – horrible crimes which resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths.
However, these wars were “small” from the perspective of the aggressor. True, they were huge operations in terms of financial costs. But they were small wars in that sense that the occupiers suffered a relative low number of deaths. In 20 years of war and occupation of Afghanistan, the U.S. lost only about 2,500 troops and the whole imperialist “coalition” altogether about 3,500. And 8 years of war and occupation of Iraq resulted in the death of about 4,500 U.S. soldiers. (As we noted already somewhere else, it is remarkable that such small losses were sufficient for the imperialist occupiers to pack and run – reflecting the low morale among the decadent, rich imperialist powers. But this issue is beyond the scope of this article. [6])
Given the relatively small number of deaths, the American (and other Western) societies were not massively affected by these wars. Washington’s wars in the Middle East did not impact daily life of most people in the U.S.
The Ukraine War has very different consequences for Russian society. Putin tried to keep the war away from the population – at least from the majority of ethnic Russians. Things have been differently in the regions of national minorities which have always suffered oppression by Great Russian chauvinism. The army command has recruited heavily among them since the beginning of the war, and they have suffered huge losses. Obviously, the Kremlin hoped to pacify the Russian society by using primarily young men of these oppressed nations as cannon fodder
However, the Kremlin grossly underestimated the determination of the Ukrainian people to defend their country (which is no surprise given the fact that Putin does not even recognise the existence of a Ukrainian nation!). [7] As a result, the Russian army suffered tens of thousands of deaths and wounded.
In order to avoid defeat, the regime saw itself forced to formally annex four Ukrainian regions and to call a “partial mobilisation” of 300,000 additional troops. [8] As is well-known, these measures have provoked a number of popular protests. More recently, such protests have even started among conscripted soldiers. [9]
For all these reasons, the Kremlin had to increase state repression against all forms of dissent and opposition. As we noted already somewhere else, the Putin regime, which always had a Bonapartist character, has moved towards more totalitarian forms of dictatorship since 24 February.
All these developments in combination have put the regime under unprecedented strain – more than ever since Putin took power in 1999. In a recently published article on the world situation, we noted: “The humiliating defeats of the Russian army, the consequential divisions within the elite in Moscow, the mass protests in North Caucasus and other regions against the “partial mobilisation”, etc. – all this are indicators of an approaching storm which could provoke a revolutionary situation and the downfall of the Putin regime.”
The latest protests of soldiers fully confirm our assessment. It does not need much explanation why a revolutionary crisis in one of the biggest countries of the world – which is also a nuclear power, an important energy exporter, a veto-wielding country in the UN Security Council, etc. – would have profound consequences for global politics.
For all these reasons, we consider Russia as key to the world situation – both in the light of the global imperialist order as well as from the perspective of international class struggle.
Indicator of the future
There are also additional reasons why we consider the current developments in Russia as highly important for Marxists. As we elaborated in several documents on the world situation in the past years, the RCIT considers the current historic period as one of capitalist decay, resulting in economic depression, dramatic acceleration of Great Power rivalry and revolutionary and counterrevolutionary crises. In our Manifesto, we spoke not by accident about “catastrophic capitalism”. [10] We can add now that the world has entered an Armageddon Age which makes the alternative “socialism or stone-age” more relevant than ever.
For these reasons, it is inevitable – as long as the ruling class in the major countries has not been overthrown by socialist revolution – that the contradictions between the Great Powers will continue to deepen. In such a context, all Great Powers will increasingly strive to put semi-colonial countries under their exclusive domination and, at the same time, to confront their imperialist rivals.
Hence, it is likely that not only Russia and the U.S. but also Western European powers, Japan as well as China will increasingly feel obliged to launch military interventions in this or that country of the Global South. Likewise, we will see an escalation of tensions and confrontations between the Great Powers themselves. A war in Europe between Western Powers and Russia or in the Taiwan Strait between the U.S. and China is not only possible in the next years resp. within the coming decade but rather inevitable.
Such a dynamic of militarism will have profound consequences for each and every imperialist state. The ruling class will be forced to restructure their economy in order to reduce dependency on rivals or on regions which are not under their domination (the so-called “global supply chain” which bourgeois economists discuss a lot currently). They will have to massively expand their arms industry, their armed forces, etc. Furthermore, the ruling class will only be able to wage big wars or to threaten rivals if they have laid the organisational and ideological foundation for mobilisation of hundreds of thousands of troops.
For the same reasons, the ruling class will have to “counter-revolutionise” domestic politics. A society in arms facing foreign enemies needs an expanded state apparatus to fight “spies” and “traitors”. It needs a radically altered ideological apparatus – from schools to the media – which indoctrinates the population in reactionary chauvinist ideas. Making sacrifices, being mobilised and accepting (at least passively) the danger of being killed “for the fatherland” requires an ideological mindset which hardly exists in Western societies yet.
Of course, there exist many obstacles for such a development – from the institutions of bourgeois democracy, the prevailing decadent ideologies characterised by liberalism, individualism and hedonism, to, most importantly, the resistance of the working class.
Today, the Western governments call their Cold War against Russia as a conflict “between democracy versus autocracy.“ Consequently, they denounce the authoritarian Putin regime and praise themselves for their “values of freedom”. However, this is – and always has been – sheer hypocrisy. Western governments have always counted brutal dictatorships among their allies – from Pinochet to the Gulf regimes. They avoided suppression of parliamentary democracy only because they could – as the richest countries in the world – afford some liberties in domestic policy, at the price of poverty and tyranny in the countries of the Global South.
However, as the global political and economic conditions change and the crisis deepens, the ruling class in North America and Western Europe will themselves become more “Putinista”, i.e. they will increasingly strangle democratic rights and introduce more and more elements of bonapartism. In other words, Western governments will follow the footsteps of Putin and expand the bonapartist state machinery. They will create a Leviathan state monster – to paraphrase the Marxist theoretician Nicolai Bukharin who warned that the epoch of imperialism will see a “New Leviathan, beside which the fantasy of Thomas Hobbes looks like a child’s toy.” [11]
As we have explained since spring 2020, the COVID Counterrevolution – i.e. the policy of responding to a pandemic with anti-democratic, authoritarian measures – was a first dress rehearsal for such a turn towards what we called Chauvinist State Bonapartism. [12]
While such a shift of ruling class policy towards bonapartism is inevitable given the deepening of capitalist crisis, an acceleration of social and political contradictions and revolutionary explosions is equally inevitable. Domestic policy in North America, Western Europe, and Japan did hardly experience any revolutionary crisis since the late 1940s. There is no doubt that such pacifist times are over and that we are heading towards a radically different future! This is why we think that Russia is a mirror of the future for all imperialist powers – in West as well as in East.
Russia as a litmus test for Marxists
Given the above-mentioned developments, the RCIT considers Putin’s imperialist war against the Ukraine, the current acceleration of the Great Power rivalry and the domestic political situation in Russia as a litmus test for revolutionaries. The deepening of contradictions, the imposition of harsh political conditions – these developments expose the character of all forces proclaiming adherence to Marxism. It is one thing for an organisation to announce its policy on war, Great Power chauvinism, etc. “in abstract”, i.e. under relative peaceful conditions of wealth and stability. It is something very different to take such position under concrete conditions of war, crisis, and state repression!
As we demonstrated in a number of articles, most self-proclaimed “Marxists” in Russia have shamefully capitulated to the wave of imperialist militarism and chauvinism. Stalinist-chauvinist forces like Zyuganov’s KPRF [13] or Tyulkin’s RKRP have jumped Putin’s wagon – without a spark of honour (not to speak about Marxist principles)! [14] Pseudo-Trotskyist forces like the Russian section of Alan Woods’ IMT [15] or the RRP have failed to take an anti-imperialist position and opportunistically adapted to the KPRF. [16] As we noted recently: Zyuganov’s KPRF acts as a servant of Putin and the RRP and the IMT Russia act as servants of the KPRF.
Only the comrades of “Socialist Tendency” (which has become the Russian section of the RCIT in summer 2022) [17] as well as the comrades of “Socialist Alternative” did fulfil their duty as internationalists and anti-imperialists and took a position of revolutionary defeatism, i.e. they sided with the national liberation struggle of the Ukrainian people and called for the defeat of the Russian Empire. [18]
Reformist and centrist forces outside of Russia did not fare better. Just think about the numerous Stalinist and populist parties which sympathise with Russian and Chinese imperialism. [19] Many reformist forces preach pacifism and advocate the reactionary utopia of a “multi-polar world order”, i.e. the peaceful coexistence of several imperialist Great Powers. [20] And other parties have lent support to Western imperialism, support its policy of sanctions, vote for the expansion of NATO or are even part of its governments (e.g. Podemos, IU and PCE in Spain or the small reformist Sinistra Italiana in Italy’s subsequent governments of Conte and Draghi). [21] Add to this those centrist organisations which fail to recognise the imperialist character of Russia and China, or which refuse to defend a semi-colonial country like the Ukraine against an imperialist predator.
In short, most self-proclaimed Marxists have failed the political test of the Ukraine War and the accelerated Great Power rivalry. And when the political conditions in Western countries become more similar like those in Putin’s Russia today, one can take it for granted that these opportunist parties will act very similar like the KPRF and the RKRP today. “Putinist” conditions create Putinist “socialists”!
We said above that Russia is a mirror of the future. The same is true for opportunist parties. Conditions of war and crisis push such parties dramatically to the right, towards accommodating and subordinating to the reactionary policy of the ruling class.
However, such conditions also provoke inevitably internal dissents and divisions. In fact, we have already seen individual and collective splits from such opportunist forces in Russia – both from Stalinist parties as well as pseudo-Trotskyist organisations. [22] In some cases, such splits are the result of demoralisation and tiredness. But in other cases, they reflect the process of moving to the left, towards internationalist and anti-imperialist conclusions.
In order to relate to this process and to advance the unification of such revolutionary forces, our comrades in “Socialist Tendency” have published an “Open Letter to Russian Socialists” some months ago. In this document, they call all authentic Marxists to join us in the struggle against social-imperialism and chauvinist patriotism. [23]
There is not doubt that we will see similar processes of internal crisis and splits among reformist and centrist parties in many other countries. “Putinist” conditions do not only create Putinist “socialists” but also divisions and ruptures among such opportunist parties by sectors which are repelled by such a policy, and which prefer adherence to the principles of internationalism and anti-imperialism!
The future Revolutionary World Party will be built, among others, by such revolutionary forces splitting with the opportunist servants of social-imperialism! This is why the RCIT has emphasized in the past months that authentic revolutionaries must unite their forces. This is why we consider the relentless struggle against treacherous social-chauvinist and pacifist forces as an indispensable task of Marxists today.
We conclude this essay by repeating that it is urgent for revolutionaries to break with routinist conservativism and narrow-minded self-complacency. Those who have not decisively broken with the social-imperialist servants must no longer wait. Those who have made such a rupture but could not decide to join forces with other authentic revolutionaries, should also not longer wait. Time is pressing! Comrades, brothers and sisters: do not hesitate – act now, act decisively!
[1] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in Russia and its rise to an imperialist power. The most important ones are several pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: The Peculiar Features of Russian Imperialism. A Study of Russia’s Monopolies, Capital Export and Super-Exploitation in the Light of Marxist Theory, 10 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/; by the same author: Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism. Another Reply to Our Critics Who Deny Russia’s Imperialist Character, August 2014, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-theory-and-russia/; Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18 March 2014 (this pamphlet contains a document written in 2001 in which we established for the first time our characterisation of Russia as imperialist), http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialist-russia/; see also these essays by the same author: Russia: An Imperialist Power or a “Non-Hegemonic Empire in Gestation”? A reply to the Argentinean economist Claudio Katz, in: New Politics, 11 August 2022, at https://newpol.org/russia-an-imperialist-power-or-a-non-hegemonic-empire-in-gestation-a-reply-to-the-argentinean-economist-claudio-katz-an-essay-with-8-tables/; Russian Imperialism and Its Monopolies, in: New Politics Vol. XVIII No. 4, Whole Number 72, Winter 2022, https://newpol.org/issue_post/russian-imperialism-and-its-monopolies/; Once Again on Russian Imperialism (Reply to Critics). A rebuttal of a theory which claims that Russia is not an imperialist state but would be rather “comparable to Brazil and Iran”, 30 March 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/once-again-on-russian-imperialism-reply-to-critics/. See various other RCIT documents on this issue at a special sub-page on the RCIT’s website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.
[2] We refer readers to a special page on the RCIT website more than 140 RCIT documents on the Ukraine War and the current NATO-Russia conflict: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/. In particular we refer to the RCIT Manifesto: Ukraine War: A Turning Point of World Historic Significance. Socialists must combine the revolutionary defense of the Ukraine against Putin’s invasion with the internationalist struggle against Russian as well as NATO and EU imperialism, 1 March 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/manifesto-ukraine-war-a-turning-point-of-world-historic-significance/
[3] See on this e.g. two RCIT documents which can be read here: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/action-program-against-the-food-and-energy-crisis/
[4] See e.g. RCIT: Threats of Nuclear War between Great Powers. On some consequences for the world situation and for socialist tactics in the defence of the Ukraine, 5 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/threats-of-nuclear-war-between-great-powers/; see also Medina Gunić: Recession, Energy Crisis, Strengthening of the Imperialist Blocs – The World Situation will change soon enough, 23 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-situation-will-change-soon-enough/; Michael Pröbsting: World Situation: In the Midst of a Global Political Tornado. Notes on global developments characterized by the Ukraine War, inter-imperialist rivalry, global energy and food crisis as well as spontaneous mass protests, 13 April 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-situation-april-2022/; by the same author: A Peculiar and Explosive Combination. Notes on the current world situation, 6 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-situation-notes-10-2022/
[5] The phrase “collective West” has become popular among Putinista ideologues like Fyodor Lukyanov, Andrei Sushentsov or Boris Mezhuev who are publishing in important think tanks like the Valdai Discussion Club or the Russian International Affairs Council or publications like Russia in Global Affairs (the Russian equivalent to Foreign Affairs in the U.S.).
[6] See on this e.g. the chapter “The Moral Crisis in the Western Imperialist Countries” in our book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, pp. 209-230, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/
[7] See on this Michael Pröbsting: The Program of Great Russian Totalitarism. On a revealing interview with Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, 11 May 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-patrushev-interview/; by the same author: A Revealing Document of Great Russian Totalitarianism. Commentary on an article published by the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti, 7 April 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/ria-novosti-great-russian-totalitarianism/.
[8] The latest RCIT documents on these developments are: Putin Announces Colonial Annexation of Ukrainian Territories, 30 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/putin-announces-colonial-annexation-of-ukrainian-territories/; Russian Empire Escalates its Colonial War against the Ukraine. Down with the shame-“referendums” in the Russian-occupied territories! No to “mobilisation”! Defend the Ukraine - Defeat Russian imperialism!, 21 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russian-empire-escalates-its-colonial-war-against-the-ukraine/; Revolutionary Tactics in the Struggle against Putin’s Mobilisation. On some issues of the program of defeatism under the current conditions of Russia’s war against the Ukraine, 28 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/revolutionary-tactics-in-the-struggle-against-putin-s-mobilisation/
[9] RCIT: Ukraine War: On Spontaneous Protests of Soldiers of the Russian Army, 3 November 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/ukraine-war-spontaneous-protests-of-soldiers-of-russian-army/
[10] RCIT: The Fire of Revolution Will Burn Down Catastrophic Capitalism! Manifesto for the Liberation Struggle of the Workers and Oppressed. Document adopted by the III. Congress of the RCIT, April 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit-fire-manifesto-2021/
[11] Nikolai Bukharin: Toward a Theory of the Imperialist State (1915), in: Robert V. Daniel: A Documentary History of Communism, Vol. 1, Vintage Russian Library, Vintage Books, New York 1960, p. 85, https://www.marxists.org/archive/bukharin/works/1915/state.htm
[12] The RCIT has analyzed the COVID-19 counterrevolution extensively since its beginning. Starting from 2 February 2020 we have published about 100 documents which are compiled at a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. See also our book by Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/.
[13] See on this e.g. the pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: Putin’s Poodles (Apologies to All Dogs). Putins Pudel. The pro-Russian Stalinist parties and their arguments in the current NATO-Russia Conflict, 9 February 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/nato-russia-conflict-stalinism-as-putin-s-poodles/; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/; see also: Russia: Zyuganov Calls for “General Mobilisation” to defeat the Ukraine. The “communist” KPRF leader joins the long-standing demand of the hard-core sector of the Great Russian chauvinist camp a la Igor Strelkov, 13 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/russia-zyuganov-calls-for-general-mobilisation-to-defeat-the-ukraine/; “Socialism” a la Putin and Zyuganov. On a telling dialogue between the Stalinist party leader and the Russian President, 13 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/socialism-a-la-putin/.
[14] See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: “Left” Stalinism and the Program of Russian Social-Imperialism. On the latest resolution of the RKRP about Putin’s “partial mobilisation”, annexation and the Ukraine War, 18 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/rkrp-program-of-russian-social-imperialism/; see by the same author: Russia and the Theory of “Lesser-Evil” Imperialism, On some Stalinists and “Trotskyists” who formally recognize Russia’s class character but reject the political consequences, 28 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-and-the-theory-of-lesser-evil-imperialism/
[15] For a critique of the IMT’s policy during the Ukraine War see e.g. Michael Pröbsting: Nothing Learned and Nothing Forgotten. The theory and practice of Alan Woods’ IMT demonstrates its continuing adaptation to pro-Russian social-imperialism, 15 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/imt-russian-imperialism-ukraine-war/; by the same author: Do the Ukrainian People in the Occupied Territories Really Want Annexation by Russia? Alan Woods’ IMT continues its opportunist adaption to pro-Russian social-imperialism in face of Putin’s mobilisation, 22 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/imt-in-face-of-putin-s-mobilisation/; Zyuganov’s Servants. IMT leaders in Russia join list of Zyuganov’s KPRF – Putin’s pro-war “communists” – for upcoming municipal elections, 25 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/zyuganov-s-servants-imt-russia/.
[16] See on this Michael Pröbsting: Against Russia’s War without Internationalism and Anti-Imperialism? A revealing statement of the RRP (Russia) about Putin’s “partial mobilisation”, 8 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/rrp-russia-and-ukraine-war/
[17] See on this: An Important Step Forward in Revolutionary Unity! Joint Statement on the Fusion of the Socialist Tendency (Russia) and the RCIT, 6 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit/fusion-declaration-between-ct-russia-and-rcit/
[18] See on this Said Kaba - 1985-2022. Obituary for a Russian comrade, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/#anker_40; For our latest critique of the ISA’s position on the Ukraine War see Michael Pröbsting: A Confirmation, Unfortunately. The ISA officially reiterates its refusal to defend the Ukraine against Putin’s invasion, calling it an “inter-imperialist proxy war”, 29 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/a-confirmation-unfortunately/
[19] See on this see e.g. the pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: Putin’s Poodles (Apologies to All Dogs). The pro-Russian Stalinist parties and their arguments in the current NATO-Russia Conflict, 9 February 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/nato-russia-conflict-stalinism-as-putin-s-poodles/; by the same author: Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/.
[20] See on this Michael Pröbsting: “Athens Declaration” on Ukraine War: A Disorientation Smoke Grenade, 17 May 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/athens-declaration-on-ukraine-war/
[21] See on this RCIT: Sweden and Finland Seek NATO Membership: Down with all Imperialist Powers! 17 May 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/sweden-and-finland-seek-nato-membership/; Michael Pröbsting: Only 6 out of 16. On the shameful capitulation of the Finnish “Left Alliance” in face of the parliamentary vote about NATO membership, 19 May 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/finish-left-alliance-parliamentary-vote-about-nato-membership/; by the same author: Crossing the Line. A critique of Murray Smith’s article “Four points on the war in Ukraine” which falls into line with NATO in the name of solidarity with the Ukraine, 12 May 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/ukraine-war-murray-smith-is-crossing-the-line/
[22] See e.g. Ukraine War: Former Russian Members of Alan Woods‘ IMT Speak Out. Two Interviews with a Preface of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 29 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/ukraine-war-former-russian-members-of-alan-woods-imt-speak-out/
[23] Open Letter to all Socialists in Russia: Unite in Fighting Russian Imperialism! Open Letter by the Socialist Tendency (Russia) and the RCIT, 12 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit/open-letter-to-all-socialists-in-russia-12-07-2022/
Notas sobre el papel de Rusia en la situación mundial actual, la lucha de clases global y el reagrupamiento revolucionario
Por Michael Pröbsting, Secretario Internacional de la Corriente Comunista Revolucionaria Internacional (CCRI), 5 de noviembre de 2022, www.thecommunists.net
En el período pasado, hemos puesto mucho énfasis en el análisis continuo de la crisis política, las contradicciones sociales y la lucha de clases en Rusia. Las razones para esto son obvias.
1) Rusia es una de un puñado de grandes potencias imperialistas.[1]
2) La Guerra de Ucrania, que el Kremlin lanzó el 24 de febrero, es una de las guerras más grandes desde hace décadas sin un final a la vista.[2]
3) Esta guerra tiene consecuencias directas (y devastadoras) ante todo para Ucrania, ¡pero no únicamente! También tiene ramificaciones masivas para la economía global y la política mundial. Ver la crisis alimentaria y energética, [3] ver la dramática aceleración de la rivalidad entre las grandes potencias, etc.[4]
No nos ocuparemos del análisis de estos desarrollos en este lugar ya que ya lo hemos hecho con mucho detalle en otros documentos (ver la literatura de la CCRI mencionada en las notas al pie). En el artículo que nos ocupa, nos gustaría llamar la atención sobre algunas cuestiones adicionales. Si bien pueden tener menos atención pública, nos parecen, sin embargo, muy importantes para los socialistas.
El eslabón más débil de la cadena imperialista
Primero, es importante reconocer que, entre las Grandes Potencias, Rusia es actualmente el eslabón más débil de la cadena imperialista. Si bien su economía está dominada por un capital monopolista nacional, es sin duda más débil que el poder combinado de sus rivales occidentales. (Las cosas serían diferentes si Rusia se enfrentara a estados europeos individuales o incluso a Europa sin los EE. UU., pero este no es el caso actualmente).
Por esta razón, Rusia sufre las sanciones financieras y económicas del “Occidente colectivo”, aunque menos de lo que esperaban Washington y Bruselas. [5] Estas sanciones podrían volverse realmente dañinas a largo plazo si Rusia no logra reemplazar las importaciones de alta tecnología de países occidentales como los chips.
Al mismo tiempo, el régimen de Putin está librando la guerra más grande iniciada por una potencia imperialista desde hace muchas décadas, al menos desde la guerra de Estados Unidos en Vietnam en 1965-1975. Por supuesto, no es la guerra más grande desde la perspectiva de las víctimas, es decir, de los pueblos de los países semicoloniales que enfrentan la violación por parte del depredador imperialista. Irak y Afganistán sufrieron durante muchos años guerras devastadoras y regímenes de ocupación, crímenes horribles que resultaron en cientos de miles de muertes.
Sin embargo, estas guerras fueron “pequeñas” desde la perspectiva del agresor. Es cierto que fueron operaciones enormes en términos de costos financieros. Pero fueron guerras pequeñas en ese sentido que los ocupantes sufrieron un número relativamente bajo de muertos. En 20 años de guerra y ocupación de Afganistán, Estados Unidos perdió solo unos 2.500 soldados y toda la “coalición” imperialista en total unos 3.500. Y 8 años de guerra y ocupación de Irak resultaron en la muerte de unos 4.500 soldados estadounidenses. (Como ya señalamos en otro lugar, es notable que pérdidas tan pequeñas fueran suficientes para que los ocupantes imperialistas empacaran y huyeran, lo que refleja la baja moral entre las potencias imperialistas ricas y decadentes. Pero este tema está más allá del alcance de este artículo [6]).
Dada la cantidad relativamente pequeña de muertes, las sociedades estadounidenses (y otras occidentales) no se vieron afectadas de manera masiva por estas guerras. Las guerras de Washington en el Medio Oriente no afectaron la vida diaria de la mayoría de las personas en los EE. UU.
La Guerra de Ucrania tiene consecuencias muy diferentes para la sociedad rusa. Putin trató de mantener la guerra alejada de la población, al menos de la mayoría de los rusos étnicos. Las cosas han sido diferentes en las regiones de minorías nacionales que siempre han sufrido la opresión del chovinismo gran ruso. El mando del ejército ha reclutado a muchos de ellos desde el comienzo de la guerra y han sufrido enormes pérdidas. Obviamente, el Kremlin esperaba pacificar a la sociedad rusa utilizando principalmente a los jóvenes de estas naciones oprimidas como carne de cañón.
Sin embargo, el Kremlin subestimó groseramente la determinación del pueblo ucraniano de defender su país (¡lo cual no sorprende dado que Putin ni siquiera reconoce la existencia de una nación ucraniana!). [7] Como resultado, el ejército ruso sufrió decenas de miles de muertos y heridos.
Para evitar la derrota, el régimen se vio obligado a anexar formalmente cuatro regiones ucranianas y convocar una “movilización parcial” de 300.000 soldados adicionales. [8] Como es bien sabido, estas medidas han provocado una serie de protestas populares. Más recientemente, este tipo de protestas han comenzado incluso entre los soldados reclutados. [9]
Por todas estas razones, el Kremlin tuvo que aumentar la represión estatal contra todas las formas de disidencia y oposición. Como ya señalamos en otro lugar, el régimen de Putin, que siempre tuvo un carácter bonapartista, se ha desplazado hacia formas de dictadura más totalitarias desde el 24 de febrero.
Todos estos acontecimientos combinados han sometido al régimen a una tensión sin precedentes, más que nunca desde que Putin asumió el poder en 1999. En un artículo publicado recientemente sobre la situación mundial, señalamos: “Las humillantes derrotas del ejército ruso, las consiguientes divisiones dentro del élite en Moscú, las protestas masivas en el norte del Cáucaso y otras regiones contra la “movilización parcial”, etc., todo esto son indicadores de una tormenta que se avecina que podría provocar una situación revolucionaria y la caída del régimen de Putin”.
Las últimas protestas de los soldados confirman plenamente nuestra evaluación. No necesita mucha explicación por qué una crisis revolucionaria en uno de los países más grandes del mundo –que además es una potencia nuclear, un importante exportador de energía, un país con derecho a veto en el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU, etc.– tendría profundas consecuencias. para la política mundial.
Por todas estas razones, consideramos a Rusia como clave para la situación mundial, tanto a la luz del orden imperialista global como desde la perspectiva de la lucha de clases internacional.
Indicador del futuro
También hay razones adicionales por las que consideramos que los desarrollos actuales en Rusia son muy importantes para los marxistas. Como elaboramos en varios documentos sobre la situación mundial en los últimos años, la CCRI considera el período histórico actual como uno de decadencia capitalista, que resultó en depresión económica, aceleración dramática de la rivalidad entre las grandes potencias y crisis revolucionarias y contrarrevolucionarias. En nuestro Manifiesto, no hablamos por casualidad de “capitalismo catastrófico”. [10] Podemos agregar ahora que el mundo ha entrado en una Era del Armagedón que hace que la alternativa "socialismo o edad de piedra" sea más relevante que nunca.
Por estas razones, es inevitable, mientras la clase dominante en los principales países no haya sido derrocada por la revolución socialista, que las contradicciones entre las grandes potencias continúen profundizándose. En tal contexto, todas las Grandes Potencias se esforzarán cada vez más por poner a los países semicoloniales bajo su dominio exclusivo y, al mismo tiempo, por enfrentar a sus rivales imperialistas.
Por lo tanto, es probable que no solo Rusia y los EE. UU. sino también las potencias de Europa occidental, Japón y China se sientan cada vez más obligados a lanzar intervenciones militares en uno u otro país del Sur Global. Asimismo, veremos una escalada de tensiones y enfrentamientos entre las propias Grandes Potencias. Una guerra en Europa entre las potencias occidentales y Rusia o en el Estrecho de Taiwán entre EE. UU. y China no solo es posible en los próximos años, o dentro de la próxima década, sino más bien inevitable.
Tal dinámica de militarismo tendrá profundas consecuencias para todos y cada uno de los estados imperialistas. La clase dominante se verá obligada a reestructurar su economía para reducir la dependencia de los rivales o de las regiones que no están bajo su dominio (la llamada "cadena de suministro global" de la que los economistas burgueses discuten mucho actualmente). Tendrán que expandir masivamente su industria armamentista, sus fuerzas armadas, etc. Además, la clase dominante sólo podrá librar grandes guerras o amenazar a sus rivales si ha sentado las bases organizativas e ideológicas para la movilización de cientos de miles de tropas.
Por las mismas razones, la clase dominante tendrá que “contrarrevolucionar” la política interna. Una sociedad en armas que se enfrenta a enemigos extranjeros necesita un aparato estatal ampliado para luchar contra los "espías" y los "traidores". Necesita un aparato ideológico radicalmente alterado -desde las escuelas hasta los medios de comunicación- que adoctrine a la población en ideas chovinistas reaccionarias. Hacer sacrificios, movilizarse y aceptar (al menos pasivamente) el peligro de ser asesinado “por la patria” requiere una mentalidad ideológica que apenas existe en las sociedades occidentales.
Por supuesto, existen muchos obstáculos para tal desarrollo, desde las instituciones de la democracia burguesa, las ideologías decadentes prevalecientes caracterizadas por el liberalismo, el individualismo y el hedonismo, hasta, lo que es más importante, la resistencia de la clase trabajadora.
Hoy, los gobiernos occidentales califican su Guerra Fría contra Rusia como un conflicto “entre democracia versus autocracia”. En consecuencia, denuncian el régimen autoritario de Putin y se alaban a sí mismos por sus “valores de libertad”. Sin embargo, esto es, y siempre ha sido, pura hipocresía. Los gobiernos occidentales siempre han contado entre sus aliados a las dictaduras brutales, desde Pinochet hasta los regímenes del Golfo. Evitaron la supresión de la democracia parlamentaria solo porque podían, como los países más ricos del mundo, permitirse algunas libertades en la política interna, al precio de la pobreza y la tiranía en los países del Sur Global.
Sin embargo, a medida que cambien las condiciones políticas y económicas globales y se profundice la crisis, la clase dominante en América del Norte y Europa Occidental se volverá más “Putinista”, es decir, estrangularán cada vez más los derechos democráticos e introducirán más y más elementos de bonapartismo. En otras palabras, los gobiernos occidentales seguirán los pasos de Putin y ampliarán la maquinaria estatal bonapartista. Crearán un monstruo Leviatán estatal, parafraseando al teórico marxista Nicolai Bukharin, quien advirtió que la época del imperialismo verá un “Nuevo Leviatán, junto al cual la fantasía de Thomas Hobbes parece un juguete para niños”. [11]
Como hemos explicado desde la primavera de 2020, la Contrarrevolución COVID –es decir, la política de responder a una pandemia con medidas antidemocráticas y autoritarias– fue un primer ensayo general de ese giro hacia lo que llamamos Bonapartismo de Estado chovinista. [12]
Si bien tal cambio de la política de la clase dominante hacia el bonapartismo es inevitable dada la profundización de la crisis capitalista, es igualmente inevitable una aceleración de las contradicciones sociales y políticas y las explosiones revolucionarias. La política interna en América del Norte, Europa Occidental y Japón casi no experimentó ninguna crisis revolucionaria desde finales de la década de 1940. ¡No hay duda de que esos tiempos pacifistas han terminado y que nos dirigimos hacia un futuro radicalmente diferente! Por eso pensamos que Rusia es un espejo del futuro para todas las potencias imperialistas, tanto en Occidente como en Oriente.
Rusia como prueba de fuego para los marxistas
Dados los desarrollos mencionados anteriormente, la CCRI considera la guerra imperialista de Putin contra Ucrania, la actual aceleración de la rivalidad entre las grandes potencias y la situación política interna en Rusia como una prueba de fuego para los revolucionarios. La profundización de las contradicciones, la imposición de duras condiciones políticas: estos acontecimientos exponen el carácter de todas las fuerzas que proclaman la adhesión al marxismo. Una cosa es que una organización anuncie su política sobre la guerra, el chovinismo de las grandes potencias, etc. “en abstracto”, es decir, en condiciones relativamente pacíficas de riqueza y estabilidad. ¡Es algo muy diferente tomar esa posición en condiciones concretas de guerra, crisis y represión estatal!
Como demostramos en varios artículos, la mayoría de los autoproclamados “marxistas” en Rusia han capitulado vergonzosamente ante la ola de militarismo imperialista y chovinismo. ¡Fuerzas estalinistas-chovinistas como la KPRF [13] de Zyuganov o la RKRP de Tyulkin se han subido al carro de Putin, sin una chispa de honor (por no hablar de los principios marxistas)! [14] Las fuerzas pseudotrotskistas como la sección rusa de la IMT [15] de Alan Woods o el RRP no han logrado adoptar una posición antiimperialista y se han adaptado de manera oportunista al KPRF [16]. Como señalamos recientemente: el KPRF de Zyuganov actúa como sirviente de Putin y el RRP y la sección rusa de la IMT actúan como sirvientes del KPRF.
Solo los camaradas de “Tendencia Socialista” (que se ha convertido en la sección rusa de la CCRI en el verano de 2022) [17] así como los camaradas de “Alternativa Socialista” cumplieron con su deber como internacionalistas y antiimperialistas y tomaron una posición de derrotismo revolucionario, es decir, se pusieron del lado de la lucha de liberación nacional del pueblo ucraniano y pidieron la derrota del Imperio Ruso. [18]
A las fuerzas reformistas y centristas fuera de Rusia no les fue mejor. Basta pensar en los numerosos partidos estalinistas y populistas que simpatizan con el imperialismo ruso y chino. [19] Muchas fuerzas reformistas predican el pacifismo y defienden la utopía reaccionaria de un “orden mundial multipolar”, es decir, la coexistencia pacífica de varias Grandes Potencias imperialistas. [20] Y otros partidos han prestado apoyo al imperialismo occidental, apoyan su política de sanciones, votan por la ampliación de la OTAN o incluso forman parte de sus gobiernos (por ejemplo, Podemos, IU y PCE en España o la pequeña reformista Sinistra Italiana en Italia en los posteriores gobiernos de Conte y Draghi). [21] Agregue a esto aquellas organizaciones centristas que no reconocen el carácter imperialista de Rusia y China, o que se niegan a defender un país semicolonial como Ucrania contra un depredador imperialista.
En resumen, la mayoría de los marxistas autoproclamados han fallado en la prueba política de la guerra de Ucrania y la rivalidad acelerada entre las grandes potencias. Y cuando las condiciones políticas en los países occidentales se vuelvan más similares a las de la Rusia de Putin hoy, uno puede dar por sentado que estos partidos oportunistas actuarán de manera muy similar a la KPRF y la RKRP hoy. ¡Las condiciones “putinistas” crean “socialistas” putinistas!
Dijimos anteriormente que Rusia es un espejo del futuro. Lo mismo es cierto para los partidos oportunistas. Las condiciones de guerra y crisis empujan a esos partidos dramáticamente hacia la derecha, hacia la acomodación y la subordinación a la política reaccionaria de la clase dominante.
Sin embargo, tales condiciones también provocan inevitablemente disensiones y divisiones internas. De hecho, ya hemos visto divisiones individuales y colectivas de tales fuerzas oportunistas en Rusia, tanto de los partidos estalinistas como de las organizaciones pseudotrotskistas. [22] En algunos casos, tales divisiones son el resultado de la desmoralización y el cansancio. Pero en otros casos, reflejan el proceso de moverse hacia la izquierda, hacia conclusiones internacionalistas y antiimperialistas.
Para relacionarnos con este proceso y avanzar en la unificación de tales fuerzas revolucionarias, nuestros compañeros de “Tendencia Socialista” han publicado hace algunos meses una “Carta abierta a los socialistas rusos”. En este documento llaman a todos los marxistas auténticos a unirse a nosotros en la lucha contra el socialimperialismo y el patriotismo chovinista. [23]
No hay duda de que veremos procesos similares de crisis interna y escisiones entre partidos reformistas y centristas en muchos otros países. ¡Las condiciones “putinistas” no solo crean “socialistas” putinistas, sino también divisiones y rupturas entre tales partidos oportunistas por parte de sectores que repelen tal política y que prefieren adherirse a los principios del internacionalismo y el antiimperialismo!
¡El futuro Partido Revolucionario Mundial será construido, entre otros, por tales fuerzas revolucionarias escindidas de los sirvientes oportunistas del socialimperialismo! Por eso la CCRI ha enfatizado en los últimos meses que los auténticos revolucionarios deben unir sus fuerzas. Es por eso que consideramos la lucha incesante contra las traicioneras fuerzas socialchovinistas y pacifistas como una tarea indispensable de los marxistas de hoy.
Concluimos este ensayo repitiendo que es urgente que los revolucionarios rompan con el conservadurismo putinista y la autocomplacencia de mente estrecha. Los que no rompieron decisivamente con los servidores socialimperialistas no deben esperar más. Quienes han hecho tal ruptura, pero no pudieron decidir unirse a otros auténticos revolucionarios, tampoco deben esperar más. ¡El tiempo apremia! Camaradas, hermanos y hermanas: ¡no vacilen, actúen ahora, actúen con decisión!
[1] La CCRI ha publicado numerosos documentos sobre el capitalismo en Rusia y su ascenso a potencia imperialista. Los más importantes son varios folletos de Michael Pröbsting: Las características peculiares del imperialismo ruso. Un estudio de los monopolios, la exportación de capital y la superexplotación de Rusia a la luz de la teoría marxista, 1 0de agosto de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/#anker_7; por el mismo autor: Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism. Another Reply to Our Critics Who Deny Russia’s Imperialist Character, agosto de 2014, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-theory-and-russia/; Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18 de marzo 2014 (este folleto contiene un documento escrito en 2001 en el que establecimos por primera vez nuestra caracterización de Rusia como imperialista), http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialist-russia/; véanse también estos ensayos del mismo autor: Rusia: ¿una potencia imperialista o un “imperio no hegemónico en gestación”? Una respuesta al economista argentino Claudio Katz, en Periodistas Unidos, 7 de octubre de 2022, en https://periodistasunidos.com.mx/2022/10/rusia-potencia-imperialista-o-imperio-no-hegemonico-en-gestacion/; El imperialismo ruso y sus monopolios, en Periodistas Unidos, 4 de septiembre de 2022, https://periodistasunidos.com.mx/2022/09/el-imperialismo-ruso-y-sus-monopolios/; Once Again on Russian Imperialism (Reply to Critics). A rebuttal of a theory which claims that Russia is not an imperialist state but would be rather “comparable to Brazil and Iran”, 30 de marzo de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/once-again-on-russian-imperialism-reply-to-critics/. Consulte otros documentos de la CCRI sobre este tema en una subpágina especial en el sitio web: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.
[2] Remitimos a los lectores a una página especial en el sitio web de RCIT con más de 140 documentos de la CCRI sobre la guerra de Ucrania y el conflicto actual entre la OTAN y Rusia: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/; En particular nos referimos al Manifiesto de la CCRI: Guerra de Ucrania: un punto de inflexión de importancia histórica mundial, 1 de marzo de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/manifesto-ukraine-war-a-turning-point-of-world-historic-significance/#anker_3.
[3] Ver en esto, p. dos documentos de la CCRI que se pueden leer aquí: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/action-program-against-the-food-and-energy-crisis/
[4] Ver, por ejemplo, CCRI: Amenazas de guerra nuclear entre grandes potencias. Sobre algunas consecuencias para la situación mundial y para la táctica socialista en la defensa de Ucrania, 5 de octubre de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/threats-of-nuclear-war-between-great-powers/#anker_1; véase también Medina Gunić: The World Situation will change soon enough, 23 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-situation-will-change-soon-enough/; Michael Pröbsting: Situación mundial: en medio de un tornado político global. Notas sobre los acontecimientos mundiales caracterizados por la guerra de Ucrania, la rivalidad interimperialista, la crisis energética y alimentaria mundial, así como las protestas masivas espontáneas, 13 de abril de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-situation-april-2022/#anker_3; por el mismo autor: Una combinación peculiar y explosiva. Notas sobre la situación mundial actual, 6 de octubre de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-situation-notes-10-2022/#anker_1
[5] La frase “Occidente colectivo” se ha vuelto popular entre los ideólogos putinistas como Fyodor Lukyanov, Andrei Sushentsov o Boris Mezhuev, quienes están publicando en importantes grupos de expertos como el Valdai Discussion Club o el Russian International Affairs Council o publicaciones como Russia in Global Affairs (el equivalente ruso a Relaciones Exteriores en los EE.UU.).
[6] Ver sobre esto en el capítulo "La crisis moral en los países imperialistas occidentales" en nuestro libro por Michael Pröbsting: Anti-imperialismo en la Era de la Rivalidad de las Grandes Potencias. Los factores detrás de la Rivalidad acelerada entre los E.U, China, Rusia, la U.E y Japón. Una crítica del análisis de la izquierda y una semblanza de la Perspectiva Marxista, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, pp. 209-230, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/libro-anti-imperialismo-en-la-era-de-la-rivalidad-de-las-grandes-potencias-19/
[7] Ver sobre esto en Michael Pröbsting: The Program of Great Russian Totalitarism. On a revealing interview with Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, 11 May 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-patrushev-interview/; por el mismo autor: A Revealing Document of Great Russian Totalitarianism. Commentary on an article published by the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti, 7 April 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/ria-novosti-great-russian-totalitarianism/
[8] Los últimos documentos de la CCRI sobre estos desarrollos son: Putin Announces Colonial Annexation of Ukrainian Territories, 30 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/putin-announces-colonial-annexation-of-ukrainian-territories/; El imperialismo ruso intensifica la guerra colonial contra Ucrania. ¡Abajo los vergonzosos “referéndums” en los territorios ocupados por Rusia! ¡No a la “movilización” masiva para la guerra! ¡Defendamos a Ucrania – Por la derrota del imperialismo ruso!, 21 de septiembre de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russian-empire-escalates-its-colonial-war-against-the-ukraine/#anker_2; Revolutionary Tactics in the Struggle against Putin’s Mobilisation. On some issues of the program of defeatism under the current conditions of Russia’s war against the Ukraine, 28 de septiembre de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/revolutionary-tactics-in-the-struggle-against-putin-s-mobilisation/
[9] RCIT: Ukraine War: On Spontaneous Protests of Soldiers of the Russian Army, 3 November 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/ukraine-war-spontaneous-protests-of-soldiers-of-russian-army/
[10] ¡El fuego de la revolución consumirá el capitalismo catastrófico! Manifiesto de la lucha por la liberación de los trabajadores y oprimidos. Documento adoptado por el III Congreso de la CCRI, abril de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/ccri-fuego-manifiesto-2021/
[11] Nikolai Bukharin: Toward a Theory of the Imperialist State (1915), in: Robert V. Daniel: A Documentary History of Communism, Vol. 1, Vintage Russian Library, Vintage Books, New York 1960, p. 85, https://www.marxists.org/archive/bukharin/works/1915/state.htm
[12] La CCRI ha analizado extensamente la contrarrevolución del COVID-19 desde sus inicios. A partir del 2 de febrero de 2020, hemos publicado alrededor de 100 documentos que se compilan en una subpágina especial en nuestro sitio web: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. Ver también nuestro libro por Michael Pröbsting: La Contrarrevolución del COVID-19: Qué es y Cómo Combatirla. Un análisis y una estrategia marxistas para la lucha revolucionaria, RCIT Books, Viena, abril de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/la-contrarrevoluci%C3%B3n-del-covid-19-qu%C3%A9-es-y-c%C3%B3mo-combatirla/
[13] See on this e.g. the pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: Putin’s Poodles (Apologies to All Dogs). The pro-Russian Stalinist parties and their arguments in the current NATO-Russia Conflict, 9 February 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/nato-russia-conflict-stalinism-as-putin-s-poodles/; Siervos de dos amos. El estalinismo y la nueva guerra fría entre las grandes potencias imperialistas de Oriente y Occidente, 10 de julio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/#anker_9; ver también: Russia: Zyuganov Calls for “General Mobilisation” to defeat the Ukraine. The “communist” KPRF leader joins the long-standing demand of the hard-core sector of the Great Russian chauvinist camp a la Igor Strelkov, 13 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/russia-zyuganov-calls-for-general-mobilisation-to-defeat-the-ukraine/; “Socialism” a la Putin and Zyuganov. On a telling dialogue between the Stalinist party leader and the Russian President, 13 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/socialism-a-la-putin/.
[14] Ver, p. ej., Michael Pröbsting: “Left” Stalinism and the Program of Russian Social-Imperialism. On the latest resolution of the RKRP about Putin’s “partial mobilisation”, annexation and the Ukraine War, 18 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/rkrp-program-of-russian-social-imperialism/; ver, por el mismo autor: Russia and the Theory of “Lesser-Evil” Imperialism, On some Stalinists and “Trotskyists” who formally recognize Russia’s class character but reject the political consequences, 28 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-and-the-theory-of-lesser-evil-imperialism/
[15] Para una crítica de la política del IMT durante la Guerra de Ucrania, véase, p. Michael Pröbsting: Nothing Learned and Nothing Forgotten. The theory and practice of Alan Woods’ IMT demonstrates its continuing adaptation to pro-Russian social-imperialism, 15 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/imt-russian-imperialism-ukraine-war/; por el mismo autor: Do the Ukrainian People in the Occupied Territories Really Want Annexation by Russia? Alan Woods’ IMT continues its opportunist adaption to pro-Russian social-imperialism in face of Putin’s mobilisation, 22 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/imt-in-face-of-putin-s-mobilisation/; Zyuganov’s Servants. IMT leaders in Russia join list of Zyuganov’s KPRF – Putin’s pro-war “communists” – for upcoming municipal elections, 25 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/zyuganov-s-servants-imt-russia/.
[16] Ver sobre esto en, Michael Pröbsting: Against Russia’s War without Internationalism and Anti-Imperialism? A revealing statement of the RRP (Russia) about Putin’s “partial mobilisation”, 8 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/rrp-russia-and-ukraine-war/
[17] Ver sobre esto en: Revolucionarios rusos se unifican con nuestra corriente internacional. Declaración Conjunta sobre la Fusión entre la Tendencia Socialista (Rusia) y la Corriente Comunista Revolucionaria Internacional (CCRI), 6 de agosto de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit/fusion-declaration-between-ct-russia-and-rcit/#anker_4
[18] Ver sobre esto en Said Kaba - 1985-2022. Obituary for a Russian comrade, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/#anker_40; Para nuestra última crítica de la posición de la ISA sobre la Guerra de Ucrania, ver Michael Pröbsting: A Confirmation, Unfortunately. The ISA officially reiterates its refusal to defend the Ukraine against Putin’s invasion, calling it an “inter-imperialist proxy war”, 29 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/a-confirmation-unfortunately/
[19] Ver sobre esto los folletos de Michael Pröbsting: Putin’s Poodles (Apologies to All Dogs). The pro-Russian Stalinist parties and their arguments in the current NATO-Russia Conflict, 9 February 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/nato-russia-conflict-stalinism-as-putin-s-poodles/; por el mismo autor: Siervos de dos amos. El estalinismo y la nueva guerra fría entre las grandes potencias imperialistas de Oriente y Occidente, 10 de julio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/#anker_9
[20] Ver sobre esto en Michael Pröbsting: “Declaración de Atenas” sobre la guerra de Ucrania: una granada de humo de desorientación. Crítica a un comunicado emitido por la “Internacional Progresista” de Sanders, Lula, Varoufakis y Corbyn, 17 de mayo de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/athens-declaration-on-ukraine-war/#anker_1
[21] Ver sobre esto en: Suecia y Finlandia buscan ingresar a la OTAN: ¡Abajo todas las potencias imperialistas!, 17 de mayo de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/sweden-and-finland-seek-nato-membership/#anker_2; por el mismo autor: Crossing the Line. A critique of Murray Smith’s article “Four points on the war in Ukraine” which falls into line with NATO in the name of solidarity with the Ukraine, 12 May 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/ukraine-war-murray-smith-is-crossing-the-line/
[22] Ver, por ejemplo, Ukraine War: Former Russian Members of Alan Woods‘ IMT Speak Out. Two Interviews with a Preface of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 29 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/ukraine-war-former-russian-members-of-alan-woods-imt-speak-out/
[23] Open Letter to all Socialists in Russia: Unite in Fighting Russian Imperialism! Open Letter by the Socialist Tendency (Russia) and the RCIT, 12 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit/open-letter-to-all-socialists-in-russia-12-07-2022/
Notas sobre o papel da Rússia na atual situação mundial, a luta de classes global e o reagrupamento revolucionário
Por Michael Pröbsting, Secretário da Corrente Comunista Revolucionária Internacional (CCRI/RCIT), 5 de novembro de 2022, www.thecommunists.net
No período passado, colocamos muita ênfase na análise contínua da crise política, das contradições sociais e da luta de classes na Rússia. As razões para isto são óbvias.
1) A Rússia é uma das poucas grandes potências imperialistas. [1]
2) A Guerra da Ucrânia, que o Kremlin lançou em 24 de fevereiro, é uma das maiores guerras desde há décadas, sem fim à vista. [2]
3) Esta guerra tem consequências diretas (e devastadoras) antes de tudo para a Ucrânia - mas não só! Ela traz também enormes ramificações para a economia global e para a política mundial. Veja a crise alimentar e energética,[3] veja a dramática aceleração da rivalidade das Grandes Potências, etc. [4]
Não trataremos da análise destes desenvolvimentos neste local, já que já o fizemos com muito detalhe em outros documentos (veja a literatura da CCRI/RCIT mencionada nas notas de rodapé). No artigo em questão, gostaríamos de chamar a atenção para algumas questões adicionais. Embora possam estar menos à frente da atenção do público, elas nos parecem, no entanto, muito importantes para os socialistas.
O elo mais fraco da cadeia imperialista
Primeiro, é importante reconhecer que entre as Grandes Potências, a Rússia é atualmente o elo mais fraco da cadeia imperialista. Enquanto sua economia é dominada por um capital monopolista doméstico, ela é sem dúvida mais fraca do que o poder combinado de seus rivais ocidentais. (As coisas seriam diferentes se a Rússia fosse confrontada por Estados europeus individuais ou mesmo pela Europa sem os Estados Unidos, mas atualmente não é este o caso).
Por esta razão, a Rússia sofre as sanções financeiras e econômicas do "Ocidente coletivo", embora menos do que Washington e Bruxelas esperavam. [5] Estas sanções podem se tornar realmente prejudiciais a longo prazo se a Rússia não conseguir substituir importações de alta tecnologia de países ocidentais como chips.
Ao mesmo tempo, o regime de Putin está travando a maior guerra que uma potência imperialista iniciou desde muitas décadas - pelo menos desde a guerra dos Estados Unidos no Vietnã em 1965-75. Naturalmente, não é a maior guerra da perspectiva das vítimas, ou seja, dos povos dos países semicoloniais que enfrentam o estupro do predador imperialista. Iraque e Afeganistão sofreram durante muitos anos de guerras e regimes de ocupação devastadores - crimes horríveis que resultaram em centenas de milhares de mortes.
No entanto, estas guerras eram "pequenas" do ponto de vista do agressor. É verdade, eram operações enormes em termos de custos financeiros. Mas eram guerras pequenas, no sentido de que os ocupantes sofreram um número relativamente baixo de mortes. Em 20 anos de guerra e ocupação do Afeganistão, os Estados Unidos perderam apenas cerca de 2.500 soldados e toda a "coalizão" imperialista ao todo cerca de 3.500. E 8 anos de guerra e ocupação do Iraque resultaram na morte de cerca de 4.500 soldados norte-americanos. (Como já notamos em outro lugar, é notável que perdas tão pequenas foram suficientes para os ocupantes imperialistas fugirem - refletindo o baixo moral entre as potências imperialistas decadentes e ricas. Mas esta questão está além do escopo deste artigo. [6]
Dado o número relativamente pequeno de mortes, a sociedade estadunidense (e outras ocidentais) não foram massivamente afetadas por essas guerras. As guerras de Washington no Oriente Médio não afetaram a vida diária da maioria das pessoas nos Estados Unidos.
A Guerra da Ucrânia tem consequências muito diferentes para a sociedade russa. Putin tentou manter a guerra longe da população - pelo menos da maioria dos russos de etnia russa. As coisas têm sido diferentes nas regiões de minorias nacionais que sempre sofreram a opressão do grande chauvinismo russo. O comando do exército recrutou fortemente entre eles desde o início da guerra, e eles sofreram enormes perdas. Obviamente, o Kremlin esperava pacificar a sociedade russa usando principalmente os jovens destas nações oprimidas como bucha de canhão.
Entretanto, o Kremlin subestimou grosseiramente a determinação do povo ucraniano em defender seu país (o que não é surpresa, dado o fato de Putin não reconhecer sequer a existência de uma nação ucraniana!) [7] Como resultado, o exército russo sofreu dezenas de milhares de mortos e feridos.
Para evitar a derrota, o regime se viu obrigado a anexar formalmente quatro regiões ucranianas e a chamar uma "mobilização parcial" de 300.000 soldados adicionais. [8] Como é sabido, estas medidas provocaram uma série de protestos populares. Mais recentemente, tais protestos começaram até mesmo entre os soldados recrutados. [9]
Por todas essas razões, o Kremlin teve que aumentar a repressão estatal contra todas as formas de dissidência e oposição. Como já observamos em outro documento, o regime de Putin, que sempre teve um caráter Bonapartista, avançou para formas mais totalitárias de ditadura desde 24 de fevereiro.
Todos estes desenvolvimentos em combinação colocaram o regime sob uma tensão sem precedentes - mais do que nunca desde que Putin tomou o poder em 1999. Em um artigo recentemente publicado sobre a situação mundial, observamos: "As derrotas humilhantes do exército russo, as consequentes divisões dentro da elite em Moscou, os protestos em massa no Norte do Cáucaso e outras regiões contra a "mobilização parcial", etc. - Tudo isso são indicadores de uma tempestade que se aproxima e pode provocar uma situação revolucionária e a queda do regime de Putin.”
Os últimos protestos dos soldados confirmam plenamente nossa avaliação. Não é necessária muita explicação para que uma crise revolucionária em um dos maiores países do mundo - que é também uma potência nuclear, um importante exportador de energia, um país com veto no Conselho de Segurança da ONU, etc. - teria consequências profundas para a política global.
Por todas essas razões, consideramos a Rússia como chave para a situação mundial - tanto à luz da ordem imperialista global quanto da perspectiva da luta de classes internacional.