China: An Imperialist Power … Or Not Yet? A Theoretical Question with Very Practical Consequences!

Continuing the Debate with Esteban Mercatante and the PTS/FT on China’s class character and consequences for the revolutionary strategy


A Pamphlet (with 11 Tables) by Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 22 January 2022,








I. The importance of the dialectical method


Transition and totality, quantitative and qualitative changes





II. A summary of our characterization of China as an imperialist Great Power


A theoretical definition of imperialist states


China’s role in the capitalist world economy


A backward economy?


China’s military and political role in world





III. On China’s unevenness and vulnerability


Vulnerability of the U.S. and the EU


IV. The Taiwan question in its historical and geostrategic context


The genuine historical roots of Taiwanese nationalism


An issue subordinated to the inter-imperialist rivalry





V. Is China a Great Power without imperialist features?


The key role of East and South-East Asia


VI. Can China’s development as an imperialist power be aborted?





VII. China, imperialist wars, and revolutionary tactics


A military confrontation over Taiwan: the most likely war scenario


What would a potential war scenario mean for socialists?


The class interests are the decisive issue!




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Part 1






The current debate between Esteban Mercatante and the author of these lines about China’ class character is by no means accidental. It rather reflects the fact that the “China question” is a crucial issue of our time and that Marxists must have a clear analysis and program on this issue. Without such they would be confused and disorientated in world politics and the global class struggle.


Our tendency has repeatedly pointed out that the acceleration of the rivalry between the imperialist Great Powers – among which the U.S.-China conflict is the most important element – is a key factor in the current historic period which is characterized by a fragile global order and the decay of capitalism as a social formation. This political and economic crisis will deepen as long as the world is dominated by a small layer of monopolies and a few Great Powers. In fact, against the background of such decay, this rivalry between the Great Powers will inevitably continue to escalate – first in form of sanctions and trade wars, proxy wars and, finally, direct military confrontations. [1]


For all these reasons, the China question – i.e. the question of the class character of one of the largest countries in the world in terms of economy, military, politics, and population – is not merely a theoretical issue but one with strong practical consequences. Should socialists side with China in such conflicts or not?


The Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), to which the author of these lines belongs, has elaborated an extensive analysis of China and its development in the past decade. We have arrived at the conclusion that China has become an imperialist Great Power at the beginning of the current historic period which opened with the deep recession of the global economy in 2008-09. We explained in our works that despite all peculiarities und unequal features in its development, China had crossed the Rubicon and became an imperialist power, i.e. a state which plays a key role in the world economy and world politics and which exploits semi-colonial countries. [2]


Such an analysis has important consequences for the strategy and tactics of revolutionaries. Among these are that socialists must not defend China in any conflict with other states. They rather have to take a position which is called in the Marxist tradition as revolutionary defeatism and which is associated with the famous slogan of Karl Liebknecht “The main enemy is at home!”. [3]


In contrast to our analysis, comrade Esteban Mercatante – a leading theoretician of the Socialist Workers Party (PTS) and its international current (Fracción Trotskista) – considers China as an “imperialism under construction” by which he resp. his comrades in the PTS/FT mean that China is in the process of becoming an imperialist state, but it is not such yet. Consequently, they do not apply a policy of defeatism in principle but rather make supporting resp. not supporting China dependent on the concrete situation. [4]


The comrades of the PTS have published the latest exchange in our debate on their website. [5] This essay shall deal with the arguments of comrade Esteban Mercatante in his latest contribution in order to deepen the debate and to clarify the issue.



I. The importance of the dialectical method




At the beginning of his contribution, comrade Mercatante emphasizes the “importance of theorizing transitional forms”. Replying to me, he wrote: “To begin with, I would like to re-emphasize the importance of theorizing transitional forms. You pointed out the question of the leap from quantity to quality, but part of that process is the development of a whole series of transitions until that qualitative change takes place. The notion of imperialism under construction applied to China seeks to account for a transition, pointing to a direction (towards consolidating itself as imperialism) but without considering it inevitable that it will advance towards it.


At a later point in the discussion, on the issue of which side socialists should take in a conflict between the U.S. and China, the comrade states that such an issue can only be decided case by case: “I believe that this ultimately cannot be determined a priori, but by a ’concrete analysis of the concrete situation’.


We will deal later with the issue of China’s class character and revolutionary tactics. At this point we want to pick up comrade Mercatante’s suggestions that an approach to this issue needs to be based on the dialectical method and the importance of viewing things concretely as well as in their movement.


While we can not but wholeheartedly agree with the emphasis on applying the dialectical-materialist method, we think that the comrade does so in a one-sided and, ultimately, undialectical way. Let us explain this first on the level of method and then in discussing concretely the issue of China’s class character.




Transition and totality, quantitative and qualitative changes




Comrade Mercatante points to the importance of focusing on a “series of transitions until that qualitative change takes place.” This is indeed a highly relevant issue since there is hardly a country in the world which has experienced such a rapid capitalist development in the past three decades like China. (The only other example is Vietnam.) But one can only understand the nature of a transition process if one knows where this process started, where it is heading and at which stage of this development we are currently in. Without such an approach, one can recognize only the process of the transition as such but not the totality in which it is situated. In other words, quantitative changes can only be understood if such are located within the qualitative stage of development.


This relates to a central requirement of materialist dialectic: viewing transition – as well as the concrete – not in isolation but in relation to other processes, other concretes. Hence, transition or concrete exist – and can only exist – as part of a given totality. Such a conception was masterly elaborated by the German philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel whose works on dialectics were crucial for Marx and Engels in their elaboration of the materialist Weltanschauung. In his “Philosophy of Nature”, Hegel characterized the “substance” as the “totality of moments of actuality”. [6] Building on such an approach, Marx – in his famous Grundrisse, the groundwork for the Capital – characterized the reality as the “rich totality of many determinations and relations.” He spoke about the concrete as follows: “The concrete is concrete because it is a synthesis of many determinations, thus a unity of the diverse.“ [7]


Likewise did Lenin, in his Philosophical Notebooks, define the “essence of dialectical cognition” as “the unfolding of the sum-total of the moments of actuality.” [8] Such an approach was defended by later Marxist theoreticians like Abram Deborin, the leading philosopher of the USSR in the 1920s before the Stalinist clampdown. He formulated this issue very well. “Nothing in the world exists in and of itself but everything exists in relation to the rest of the totality.” [9] And Georg Lukács, a remarkable Marxist philosopher albeit not without weaknesses, summarized the issue in the following pointed formula: „The primacy of the category of totality is the bearer of the principle of revolution in science.[10]


Such emphasis on the category of totality is decisive for understanding the nature of a process of transition. Without it, it is impossible to correctly locate the character of such transition and the stage of its development. We see this in the discussion on China’s class character. Emphasizing the process of transition is only useful if it is combined with a clear characterization of the stage of development, with clarifying if quantity has transformed into quality, if the Rubicon has been crossed and China has become essentially an imperialist state.


Without integrating and subordinating the process of transition into recognition of the totality, by fixating ones mind on only the process of transition itself, one runs into danger of replacing the dialectical materialist analysis with an empiricist description based on an eclecticist method.


Taking account of the category of totality is also crucial in order to avoid the following danger. In our discussion of the process of China’s transformation into an imperialist power we have always emphasized that one has to view its relationship with other countries, with other Great Powers, with the world economy, etc. We warned that by looking exclusively at China’s economy in isolation, taking a checklist if it is fulfilling this or that criteria, one can easily fail to recognize the overall class character of a state. Hence, we have always insisted on the necessity to view China in its relationship to other states and, by doing this, to take into account the totality of its economic, political, and military features – “the entire totality of the manifold relations of this thing to others“ (Lenin). [11]


[1] The RCIT has dealt on numerous occasions with the inter-imperialist rivalry of the Great Powers. See e.g. RCIT: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021,; see also our book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019,; see also the following two pamphlets by the same author: “A Really Good Quarrel”. US-China Alaska Meeting: The Inter-Imperialist Cold War Continues, 23 March 2021,; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021,; for more works on this issue see these sub-pages: and

[2] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in China and its transformation into a Great Power. See on this e.g the following works of Michael Pröbsting: Chinese Imperialism and the World Economy, an essay published in the second edition of The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (edited by Immanuel Ness and Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020,; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4,; China’s Emergence as an Imperialist Power (Article in the US journal 'New Politics'), in: “New Politics”, Summer 2014 (Vol:XV-1, Whole #: 57); How is it possible that some Marxists still Doubt that China has Become Capitalist? (A Critique of the PTS/FT), An analysis of the capitalist character of China’s State-Owned Enterprises and its political consequences, 18 September 2020,; Unable to See the Wood for the Trees (PTS/FT and China). Eclectic empiricism and the failure of the PTS/FT to recognize the imperialist character of China, 13 August 2020,

[3] For our programmatic approach on inter-imperialist conflicts see e.g. RCIT: Theses on Revolutionary Defeatism in Imperialist States, 8 September 2018,; see also chapters XVI to XX in the above-mentioned book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. See also the German-language essay by the same author: Lenin, die Bolschewiki und ihr Kampf gegen den imperialistischen Krieg. „Umwandlung des imperialistischen Krieges in den Bürgerkrieg“,

[4] You can read several contributions of Esteban Mercatante on China in Spanish ( as well as in English (see e.g. and His latest book is El imperialismo en tiempos de desorden mundial.” (

[5] The exchange between the two partly took initially place on the Marxmail list (it can be read here), and later in the form of a direct dialogue. The PTS translated and republished this direct exchange on its website in the section Ideas de Izquierda”. It can be read here: Meanwhile the text has also been translated and published in Portuguese language on the website of the Brazilian comrades of the PTS ( The RCIT has republished this exchange on its website in English as well as in Spanish and Portuguese language. (See All quotes of Esteban Mercatante are taken from this exchange if not indicated otherwise.

[6] Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel: Die Naturphilosophie. Einleitung; in: Enzyklopädie der philosophischen Wissenschaften, Teil I, Werke 8, Frankfurt a. M. 1986, p. 284. (our translation). Likewise, Hegel stated in his “Science of Logic”: It is of the greatest importance to perceive and to bear in mind this nature of the reflective determinations we have just considered, namely, that their truth consists only in their relation to one another, that therefore each in its very Notion contains the other; without this knowledge, not a single step can really be taken in philosophy.“ (Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel: Science of Logic, George Allen & Unwin, Ltd, New York 1969, p. 438)

[7] Karl Marx: Grundrisse [Outlines of the Critique of Political Economy (Rough Draft of 1857-58)]; in: MECW 28, pp. 37-38

[8] V.I.Lenin: Conspectus of Hegel’s Science of Logic (1914); in: Collected Works Vol. 38, pp. 157-158

[9] Abram Deborin: Lenin als revolutionärer Dialektiker (1925); in: Nikolai Bucharin/Abram Deborin: Kontroversen über dialektischen und mechanistischen Materialismus, Frankfurt a.M. 1974, p. 136 [our translation]

[10] Georg Lukács: The Marxism of Rosa Luxemburg, in: History and Class Consciousness: Studies in Marxist Dialectics (1923), The MIT Press, Cambridge 1971, p. 27

[11] V. I. Lenin: Conspectus of Hegel’s Science of Logic (1914); in: Collected Works Vol. 38, p. 220


Part 2


II. A summary of our characterization of China as an imperialist Great Power




Taking the “totality of relations” as the starting point, we focus our understanding of China’s class character not solely on its internal development – albeit this is of course also an important issue – but also on its role in the global system of imperialism. In his contribution, comrade Esteban Mercatante states: “China's superiority is accompanied by a situation in which the balance between the set of dimensions configures a less "coherent" socioeconomic formation. What do I mean by this? I mean that today we still have many “Chinas” within China; a southeast where the most advanced of the world's industry and technology is located, where the companies that compete head to head with US, German or Japanese firms to dominate some of the cutting-edge technologies are formed; while in the rest of the country the situation is much more unequal.“ He also points out that China has an “aggregate productivity which is one third that of the USA.


Of course, the comrade is correct in pointing to these features. It is, in summary, the result of Chinas belated development as a capitalist – and even more so as an imperialist – state. As a result, it has regions which are basically as modern as Western states and other regions which are more backward.


All this is true. But the decisive question is to identify the main character, the totality of these concrete features and relations. What is the result of these characteristics which the comrade identifies?




A theoretical definition of imperialist states




Let us begin with a brief recapitulation of our definition of imperialist states which we have elaborated in our works. This is important since, in our opinion, many Marxists lack a clear theoretical understanding of what makes a state imperialist (respectively semi-colonial). Another, commonly occurring, mistake is the one-sided focus in the analysis on only one or two specific features of a state (e.g. its military power, its capital export, etc.). In contrast, we consider it as decisive to apply a dialectical approach which views the totality of political, economic, and military features as well as the relation of a given state to others within the capitalist world order.


Hence, we have arrived in our works at the following theoretical definition of the imperialist class character of a state. “An imperialist state is a capitalist state whose monopolies and state apparatus have a position in the world order where they first and foremost dominate other states and nations. As a result they gain extra-profits and other economic, political and/or military advantages from such a relationship based on super-exploitation and oppression.[1]




Hence, the decisive point is not to look at China’s internal development and the relationship of the different provinces to each other nor to focus only on this or that feature but rather to analyze China’s political, economic, and military development as a whole, to view its relationship to the world, to other countries, to other Great Powers.


From a global point of view, it is clear that China plays a leading role in the world. It is not a state which is dominated – politically, economically or military – by other powers. It rather plays a dominating power itself. We have demonstrated this in our works on China. At this point we limit ourselves to demonstrate China’s dominating role with the help of a few facts and figures.




China’s role in the capitalist world economy




Irrespective of the fact that China’s domestic economy is unevenly developed and that its labor productivity lags behind that of the old imperialist powers in the West, it plays nevertheless a dominating role in the world economy.


According to latest figures, China had become the leading nation in world manufacturing – the heart of global capitalist value production. By 2019 it accounts for 28.7% of global manufacturing output and in 2020 this share did already grow to 31.3%. The U.S. ranks as second with 16.8%. (See Table 1) Likewise, it has become the leading economy in world exports and is in a nearly equal position with the U.S. in terms of imports. (See Table 2 and 3)




Table 1. Top 10 Countries by Share of Global Manufacturing Output in 2019 [2]


                                                Share in Global Manufacturing Output


China                                    28.7% (2020: 31.3%)


U.S.                                        16.8%


Japan                                     7.5%


Germany                              5.3%


India                                      3.1%


South Korea                        3.0%


Italy                                       2.1%


France                                   1.9%


UK                                          1.8%


Indonesia                             1.6%




Table 2. Share of U.S. and China in World Merchandise Exports, 2003 and 2020 [3]


                                                2003                       2020


U.S.                                        9.8%                       8.4%


China                                    5.9%                       15.2%




Table 3. Share of U.S. and China in World Merchandise Imports, 2003 and 2020 [4]


                                                2003                       2020


U.S.                                        17.1%                    13.9%


China                                    5.4%                       11.8%






A backward economy?




Some of our critics argue that such a leading position does not reflect the whole picture since Western monopolies would super-exploit Chinese workers, i.e. while the production takes place in China, the extra-profits end up in the pockets of American, European or Japanese shareholders. [5] However, as we have demonstrated in our works, while such a mechanism exists to a certain degree, it is not the dominating feature in the relationship between China and the world economy.


This can be clearly seen in the light of the rapid development of Chinese monopolies and Chinese billionaires. If a major part of the surplus value, created by Chinese workers, would end up in the pockets of the Western monopoly bourgeoisie, the latter would have kept and extended their lead in global ranking. However, the opposite is the case. It has been mainly the Chinese monopoly bourgeoisie which has appropriated the bulk of the surplus value created by Chinese workers. This becomes very evident from the actual figures of the leading global corporations as well as the world’s billionaires.


As one can see in Table 4, China has become the leading nation among the largest monopolies in the world (as calculated by the Fortune Global 500 list). We see the same picture when it comes to the global ranking of billionaires. (See Table 5)




Table 4. Top 10 Countries with the Ranking of Fortune Global 500 Companies (2020) [6]


Rank                      Country                                                                Companies                           Share(in%)


1                              China (without Taiwan)                                    124                                         24.8%


2                              United States                                                      121                                         24.2%


3                              Japan                                                                     53                                           10.6%


4                              France                                                                   31                                           6.2%


5                              Germany                                                              27                                           5.4%




Table 5. China and U.S. Lead the Hurun Global Rich List 2021 [7]


                                2021                       Share of “Known” Global Billionaires 2021


China                    1058                       32.8%


U.S.                        696                         21.6%




Comrade Esteban Mercatante, as we quoted above, points to the uneven development of China’s economy. True, but in the end, the decisive question is, if one takes all factors into account, what is the totality of these elements and their relationship to each other? What is the totality of China’s economic relation with other imperialist powers?


We did already demonstrate above the leading role of China in various fields of the capitalist world economy. However, as the latest UNIDO report shows, China has become not only a strong but also a very modern economy in the field of modern technology. As Table 6 demonstrates China has rapidly expanded its stock of industrial robots – one of the key areas of economic-technological power. While its share of industrial robots was merely 3.2% in 2010, it increased to 31% within ten years. In contrast, the share of the so-called “Industrialized Economies” – this is a bourgeois economic category for Western imperialist countries – declined in the same period from 95% to 63%. As readers can see in this table, the countries which bourgeois economists call “Developing and Emerging Industrial Economies” – i.e. semi-colonial capitalist countries which are super-exploited by the imperialist monopolies – only hold a negligible quantity of industrial robots (about 6% by now).




Table 6. Share in Total Stocks of Industrial Robots, 2010 vs. 2020 [8]


                                                                                                                                                                2010                       2020


“Industrialized Economies”                                                                                                            95%                        63%


China                                                                                                                                                     3.2%                       31%


“Developing and Emerging Industrial Economies”, Europe                                                   0.5%                       1.2%


“Developing and Emerging Industrial Economies”, Latin America                                       0.7%                       2.2%


“Developing and Emerging Industrial Economies”, Asia-Pacific                                            0.7%                       2.8%




This means that by now, China alone has half as many industrial robots as all Western imperialist countries – the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. – combined! From this follows, logically, that China has become the world's leading economy with the largest number of industrial robots operating!


And industrial robots are not an isolated example. In fact, China has become the No. 1 or 2 in various crucial trendsetting industries like Artificial Intelligence, renewable energy, or medical research – to name only a few examples. [9] To make a historical analogy: China is a is a late bloomer in the current phase of imperialism, as Japan and South Korea were before and as Germany was in the late 19th and early 20th century.


In summary, comrade Mercatante is right to say that “today we still have many “Chinas” within China“. But, for Marxists it is not sufficient to point to different features of a phenomenon, that “on one hand there is this and on the other hand there is the opposite”. In order to avoid an eclectic approach, we must identify the essence, the main element which is dominating – the backward or the advanced elements of China’s capitalist development? Are the backward features dominating the advanced elements or are the advanced elements dominating the backward? Or, to put it more allegorical, does the city dominate the village or the other way round?


Hegel once stated that the truth of being is essence.[10] And, indeed, the decisive issue is to identify the essence of China’s economy? In our opinion, there is no doubt that, despite all its uneven features, China is not only a large economy but also among the world's leading countries in all relevant fields, including modern technologies. It is a country dominated by a monopoly bourgeoisie which is closely interwoven with the Stalinist-capitalist regime and which plays a leading role in the capitalist world economy.




China’s military and political role in world




In the field of military power, China has also experienced a rapid process of catching-up. As one can see from the Tables 7, 8 and 9, the U.S. was and remains the largest military power. However, Russia is not far behind and China is catching up. Beijing’s military spending is the second highest in the world after the United States. It far exceeds that of its neighbors and was greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in 2019. [11] The renowned Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) observes: “Chinese spending has risen for 26 consecutive years – the longest streak of uninterrupted increases by any country in the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.[12]




Table 7. World Nuclear Forces, 2020 [13]


Country                                Deployed Warheads         Other Warheads                Total Inventory


USA                                       1,800                                      3,750                                      5,550


Russia                                   1,625                                      4,630                                      6,255


UK                                          120                                         105                                         225


France                                   280                                         10                                           290


China                                                                                 350                                         350




Table 8. The U.S. and China as the World’s largest Military Spenders [14]


                                Military Spending            Growth of Military Spending


                                in 2020 (in $Billion)          2011-2020 (in %)


U.S.                        $778 Billion                          -10%


China                    $252 Billion                          +76%




Table 9. The World’s 10 Top Exporters of Weapons, 2016-20 [15]


Rank                      Exporter                               Global Share (%)


1                              U.S.                                        37%


2                              Russia                                   20%


3                              France                                   8.2%


4                              Germany                              5.5%


5                              China                                    5.2%




Add to this that, according to the latest Pentagon report, China has now the largest navy in the world. “The PRC has numerically the largest navy in the world with an overall battle force of approximately 355 ships and submarines, including approximately more than 145 major surface combatants. As of 2020, the PLAN is largely composed of modern multi-role platforms.[16]


Of course, such development must be viewed in context. While the US Navy's battle force numbers approximately 293 ships as of early 2020, it remains far ahead in the key metric of tonnage, meaning the US Navy operates much larger warships than China. The Chinese navy approaches 2 million tons, while the US Navy tops 4.6 million tons, according to a 2019 estimate by the Center for International Maritime Security. However, this difference is also related to different combat missions. “Analysts say part of the reason why China's navy is lighter is because it is heavily concentrated on building a force to secure regional spheres of influence in what Beijing considers Chinese sovereign waters, like the South China Sea and the East China Sea. The US Navy operates larger vessels, like its 11 aircraft carriers, to project force around the world, and China doesn't necessarily need a blue-water navy right now to deter access to the South China Sea.[17]


As a result of its economic as well as military rise, China plays a central role in world politics. This is reflected not only in the fact that it is one of the five veto powers in the United Nations. It is also reflected in the central role of China’s Belt & Road Initiative – Beijing’s version of the Marshall Plan, so to say. As it is known, numerous countries of the South on all continents have joined the BRI initiative. However, in the last years a number of members states of the European Union has also started participating in the BRI. Among these are not only all Eastern European states but also others like Italy, Austria, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus. [18]


Furthermore, China’s transformation is also reflected in the fact that all capitalist governments consider China as a Great Power. Washington has identified Beijing as its main rival – what is this if not a recognition by its chief enemy that China has become a Great Power?! When the imperialist governments of the European Union discuss their foreign policy, the main issues are a) their relations with the U.S. and b) their relations with China. Obviously, imperialism has been sufficiently constructed in China for being recognized as a serious rival by the Western powers!


In summary, it is evident that China has become a leading power in every aspect – in the world economy, in international politics as well as a in the global arms race. Such a power is definitely an imperialist state.


[1] See on this e.g. the above-mentioned book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry, p. 51; see also, by the same author, another book: The Great Robbery of the South. Continuity and Changes in the Super-Exploitation of the Semi-Colonial World by Monopoly Capital Consequences for the Marxist Theory of Imperialism, 2013,; Semi-Colonial Intermediate Powers and the Theory of Sub-Imperialism. A contribution to an ongoing debate amongst Marxists and a proposal to tackle a theoretical problem, 1 August 2019,

[2] Felix Richter: These are the top 10 manufacturing countries in the world, World Economic Forum, 25.2.2020,; output measured on a value-added basis in current U.S. dollars. The figure for China in 2020 is taken from United Nations Industrial Development Organization: Industrial Development Report 2022. The Future of Industrialization in a Post-Pandemic World, Vienna 2021, p. 111

[3] WTO: World Trade Statistical Review 2021, p. 56

[4] WTO: World Trade Statistical Review 2021, p. 56

[5] See on this e.g. Sam King: Imperialism and the development myth. How rich countries dominate in the twenty- first century, Manchester University Press, Manchester 2021. The author of this book, a self-proclaimed Marxist academic, strongly denies China’s imperialist character and takes issue, among others, with my works on imperialism in general and China in particular (pp. 76-82, 104, 226); See also a thoughtful but ultimately wrong analysis by Minqi Li: China: Imperialism or Semi-Periphery? In: Monthly Review, Volume 73, Issue 3 (July-August 2021),

[6] Fortune Global 500, August 2020, (the figures for the share is our calculation)

[7] Hurun Global Rich List 2021, 2.3.2021,

[8] United Nations Industrial Development Organization: Industrial Development Report 2022. The Future of Industrialization in a Post-Pandemic World, Vienna 2021, p. 109

[9] See on these e.g. Daitian Li, Tony W. Tong, and Yangao Xiao: Is China Emerging as the Global Leader in AI? 18 February 2021,; Dominic Chiu: The East Is Green: China’s Global Leadership in Renewable Energy,; Sintia Radu: U.S., China Compete for Medical Research Leadership, 27 September 2019,

[10] Hegel's Science of Logic (Translated by A.V. Miller; Foreword by J.N. Findlay), Allen & Unwin, London 1969, p. 389

[11] Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart: Understanding China’s 2021 Defense Budget, Center for Strategic and International Studies, March 5, 2021,

[12] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: SIPRI Yearbook 2021. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, Summary, pp. 12-13

[13] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: SIPRI Yearbook 2021. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, Summary, p. 17

[14] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: SIPRI Yearbook 2021. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, Summary, p. 12

[15] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: SIPRI Yearbook 2021. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, Summary, p. 15

[16] Pentagon: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2021. Annual Report to Congress, p. 48

[17] Wesley Rahn: China has the world's largest navy — what now for the US? Deutsche Welle, 21.10.2020,

[18] Chris Devonshire-Ellis: European Union Member States Who Joined China’s Belt And Road Initiative Are Seeing Their Exports Rise Faster By Nearly 5% More Than Those Who Have Not, Nov 20, 2020,


Part 3


III. On China’s unevenness and vulnerability




Comrade Esteban Mercatante, as quoted above, points to the uneven character of China, i.e. the substantial differences in the economic development of the country’s provinces. This is of course true. One can say that, broadly speaking, the development between the China’s rich and the poor provinces differs – if we take the economic output per capita as a measure – by about 3:1. In comparison, such a gap between the states within the U.S. do not exceed about 2:1. [1]


The comrade concludes from this: “Although today neither Germany, nor Japan, nor any other country has China's capabilities to challenge the US, neither do they exhibit such a vulnerability.” It seems to us that such a conclusion is an exaggeration. Let us explain.


Sure, the differences in China’s internal development are an important factor. And, no doubt, these contain the potential for instability and vulnerability. However, in order to judge the vulnerability of a country, it is not sufficient to view the state of its economic development. It is also important to take into account the direction of development, the state of the political regime, the ideological cohesion of the society, etc.


We fully agree with the comrade that China’s society is ridden with contradictions and the regime has to work hard to control and contain these. We think that – depending on various domestic as well as international factors – China could experience a social explosion and revolutionary crisis within the next few years.




Vulnerability of the U.S. and the EU




But – and this is an important “but” – the same is true for various other imperialist countries. In fact, the whole world is pregnant with (pre-)revolutionary and counterrevolutionary developments! [2] Look at the U.S.: in summer 2020, the largest imperialist power experienced a popular uprising after the murder of George Floyd which opened a pre-revolutionary situation. [3] Today, one of the most important issues discussed in all publications of America’s bourgeois establishment – from the New York Times and Washington Post to the Wall Street Journal – is the threat of a looming civil war. Many fear that such a political and social explosion could take place by 2024 in the context of the next Presidential elections. The ruling class is deeply divided, the working class and the middle layers are in convulsion. Say yourself, is the U.S. a less vulnerable country than China?!


Or take the European Union. Let us leave aside at this point the current mass protests against the draconic measures of capitalist governments under the pretext of the pandemic. [4] We limit ourselves to state that these developments express a new stage of rupture in the relationship between the capitalist state and large sectors of the popular masses in Europe.


But let us take the European Union as such. We have always emphasized that the European monopoly bourgeoisie has only a chance to play a leading role in world politics and economy if it advances in the formation of an imperialist pan-European state apparatus, i.e. if it creates a kind of European “super-state”. If it fails to do so, it will not be able to challenge other Great Powers. France or Germany alone are no match for the U.S., China or Russia. [5]


It is also worth pointing out that the gap in the capitalist development between the rich and the poor member states of the EU – measured in economic output per capita – is about 3:1, no less than in China. [6]


As “Brexit“ – Britain’s exit from the EU – demonstrated, the European Union is, as a unified imperialist bloc, also highly vulnerable. Yes, it can advance and strengthen its pan-European state structures. But this is by no means guaranteed as the massive tensions between the different EU member states demonstrate. Furthermore, we see that some countries – e.g. in Eastern Europe – have strong leaning to the U.S. In contrast, there are also other countries which have joined China’s Belt & Road Initiative (e.g. Italy) or which develop closer economic relations with Russia (e.g. Germany’s North Stream 2 gas pipeline with Russia). Again, we ask, is the European Union really less vulnerable than China?!


In summary, we agree with comrade Mercatante’s argument that China is vulnerable as a capitalist state and economy. But we believe that such a fragility exists also in other imperialist regions.




IV. The Taiwan question in its historical and geostrategic context




An important issue in the argumentation of comrade Mercatante is the reference to China’s incomplete development as an imperialist power. He points to the lack of military bases abroad (see on this the next chapter) as well as to the Taiwan question. He writes: “Let us add the fact, which in one point is "symbolic" but also of no lesser importance, that we are talking about a state that intends to dispute world domination while at the same time maintaining claims of sovereignty over Taiwan against the support of U.S. imperialism received by the pro-independence government of Taipei. You raise, with some reason, that any Chinese advance on Taiwan could be part of a conflict between powers. But the fact that for China this is a sine qua non condition for achieving national integrity is yet another sign of the contradictory nature of its status.” This is a crucial question since, as we will see later, comrade Mercatante considers it as possible to take the side of China in a military confrontation with the U.S. on the issue of Taiwan.


At this point we will not deal with the tactical consequences for revolutionaries in such a scenario (see on this the last chapter of the essay at hand). We shall rather discuss some concrete issues related with the Taiwan question. First, it is crucial to view the Taiwan question from a historical point of view. Taiwan was annexed by the Qing dynasty in 1683. However, it faced several uprisings by the population who viewed the Empire forces as occupiers. The most important of these was the so-called Lin Shuangwen rebellion (1786–1788). Another significant uprising took pace in 1862-64 under the leadership of Dai Wansheng. [7]


In 1895 the island was occupied by emerging Japanese imperialism which, after some time, imposed an assimilation program, pushing people to adopt Japanese surnames. The colonial masters faced a seven-year resistance and the rebels proclaimed a short-lived “Republic of Taiwan”. [8] Finally, with the crushing defeat of the Empire of the Rising Sun in 1945, Taiwan was liberated.


However, the Chinese civil war between the peasant army led by Mao’s Communist Party and the forces under the command of Chiang Kai-shek’s reactionary Kuomintang (KMT) had important consequences for the island. After the Maoist forces defeated Kuomintang on the mainland, Chiang Kai-shek retreated with his supporters to Taiwan. He announced himself as the leader of all of China and proclaimed Taipei as its "wartime capital". With the help of U.S. imperialism, Chiang Kai-shek brutally crushed the resistance of the communists and the local population. The most important event – which has become a historic date for the Taiwanese nationalist movement – is the so-called “2:28 Incident” referred so because of its start on 28 February 1947. This was a spontaneous popular uprising against the KMT regime demanding some form of autonomy or independence of Taiwan. Chiang Kai-shek’s troops crushed the rebellion, killing between 18,000 to 28,000 people within a few weeks (according to the findings of an official commission in 1992). This massacre allowed the KMT forces to create a pro-Western military dictatorship which existed until the late 1980s.




The genuine historical roots of Taiwanese nationalism




One important consequence of Chiang Kai-shek retreat to Taiwan was the fact that he did not only bring much of China's gold reserves and foreign currency reserves to the island but also some 2 million people – mostly soldiers, KMT members and intellectual and business elites. This population group constituted ¼ of the total population and completely dominated the state apparatus. The KMT dictatorship enforced Mandarin as the official language of state and Taiwanese was not allowed to be spoken in schools or the military. It was only decades later that Taiwanese culture became tolerated and the native Taiwanese people were allowed to enter leading positions in the state.


We have undertaken this brief historical excurse because we want to counter the myth – spread by Chinese Stalinism and its supporters – that Taiwan is simply part of the Chinese nation and that all arguments for autonomy or independence of Taiwan would only represent an excuse for an anti-China and pro-U.S. policy. As we have shown, this is simply not true. Han chauvinism has always been a central feature of the Stalinist regime in China and the national minorities in East Turkestan, Tibet and in other regions have suffered a lot from this. [9] When the KMT created its dictatorship with the support of U.S. imperialism, they did not recognize any specific Taiwanese national identity. Quiet the opposite, they promoted Han chauvinism – like their Stalinist rivals – and suppressed the native population. Hence, Taiwanese nationalism and “separatism” is historically not at all a product of pro-U.S. forces.


What is true is that more recently, Washington has indeed begun to support Taiwanese separatist sentiments. They are doing this because of two reasons. First, Taiwanese nationalism has become the dominant force. According to a recently published survey by the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University in Taipei, the majority of the population identify themselves as Taiwanese nationals and are opposed to a unification with mainland China. More than 60% of the island’s 23 million people identify as solely Taiwanese and only 2% identified as Chinese, down from 25% three decades ago. [10] This process is also reflected in the fact that the Democratic Progressive Party – a bourgeois Taiwanese-nationalist force – has won the parliamentary elections in the recent past several times. [11]


Secondly, U.S. imperialism changed its approach to China about a decade ago. As Beijing became a Great Power which Washington could no longer dictate its policy, the U.S. Administration – beginning with Obama (the famous "Pivot to Asia") – changed their approach to Taiwan. Giving up the hope to influence China’s policy, it adopted an aggressive approach of supporting Taiwan’s drive to independence in order to weaken Beijing. However, this does not change the fact that Taiwanese nationalism has its genuine historical roots which has nothing to do with American imperialism and which, in fact, was brutally suppressed by the pro-U.S. dictatorship of the KMT for a long time.




An issue subordinated to the inter-imperialist rivalry




For all these reasons, we think that Marxists have no reason to parrot Beijing’s propaganda that the “reunification of China”, i.e. the annexation of Taiwan against the will of the local population, would be a progressive demand.


However, this does not mean that socialists should “defend Taiwan against China”. Why? Because the Taiwan question has become an issue which is subordinated to the rivalry between the U.S. and China. It is clear that Taiwan only exists as a de-facto independent state because of its political and military support by Washington. For the U.S. Taiwan is nothing but an instrument to weaken its Chinese rival. Hence, Marxists reject the reactionary Western propaganda that the U.S. would support Taiwan in order to “defend democracy”.


In fact, both U.S. as well as Chinese imperialism want to control the island for political, economic and geostrategic reasons. Han chauvinism has become the most important ideological pillar of the Stalinist-capitalist regime and, consequently, the “reunification of Taiwan” is a paramount goal. In addition, control of Taiwan is essential for domination of the South China Sea as well as the East China Sea. The domination of these seas in turn is precondition to control the world as this region is the most important maritime route for world trade. 60% of global maritime trade and more than 22% of total global trade passes through the South China Sea. Hence, it is only logical that both Beijing as well as Washington are determined to control this region. And in order to achieve this, control of Taiwan is necessary.


Furthermore, there are also direct economic factors which make both sides determined to control the island. Taiwan is a global leader in several sectors of the high-technology industries. Taiwan’s leading chip producer (TSMC) alone accounts for 54% of the global semiconductor market share. Up to 90% of the semiconductors applied by US technological companies – including Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm – rely on Taiwanese manufacturing. Hence, any Chinese attack on the island would have devastating consequences not only for Taiwan itself but also, indirectly, for U.S. corporations. So, both camps have also very good economic reasons to control the island. [12]


Let us note in passing that in the period of China’s civil war until 1949 and later when the U.S. supported the KMT dictatorship, Marxists took a different approach. As our movement has elaborated, China became a deformed workers state, i.e. a country with a planned, post-capitalist economy and politically dominated by a Stalinist bureaucracy. [13] Naturally, socialists had to defend such a state in any confrontation with a capitalist country. Hence, Marxists had to take the side of the People's Republic of China in all confrontations with the Taiwanese KMT regime or U.S. imperialism – like e.g. during the civil war, the First and the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis (in 1954-55 resp. 1958).


However, this situation did dramatically change with the historical defeat of the Chinese working class in June 1989 (the Tiananmen Square massacre) and the consequential capitalist restoration in the early 1990s. [14] It did change even more when China became an imperialist Great Power in the wake of the Great Recession in 2008-09.


[1] See on this Wikipedia: List of Chinese administrative divisions by GDP per capita,; Wikipedia: List of states and territories of the United States by GDP, (both accessed on 21.1.2022)

[2] See on this e.g. the RCIT document: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, This document also contains a number of links to revolutionary developments in individual countries.

[3] See on this the compilation of RCIT documents on the popular uprising after the murder of George Floyd:

[4] The RCIT has analysed the COVID-19 counterrevolution extensively since its beginning. Starting from 2 February 2020 we have published about 125 pamphlets, essays, articles and statements plus a book which are all compiled at a special sub-page on our website:

[5] See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: The Reformist Pipe Dream of a “Socialist” European Union, 01.10.2018,; by the same author: Marxism, the European Union and Brexit; August 2016,; Michael Pröbsting: Does the EU Represent "Bourgeois Democratic Progress"? Once again, on the EU and the Tactics of the Working Class, 16.09.2016,; The British Left and the EU-Referendum: The Many Faces of pro-UK or pro-EU Social-Imperialism. An analysis of the left’s failure to fight for an independent, internationalist and socialist stance both against British as well as European imperialism, August 2015; Americanise or bust’. Contradictions and challenges of the imperialist project of European unification (2004), in: Fifth International Vol.1, No.2,; Die Frage der Vereinigung Europas im Lichte der marxistischen Theorie. Zur Frage eines supranationalen Staatsapparates des EU-Imperialismus und der marxistischen Staatstheorie. Die Diskussion zur Losung der Vereinigten Sozialistischen Staaten von Europa bei Lenin und Trotzki und ihre Anwendung unter den heutigen Bedingungen des Klassenkampfes, in: Unter der Fahne der Revolution Nr. 2/3 (2008),

[7] See on this e.g. Ian A. Skoggard: The indigenous dynamic in Taiwan's postwar development: the religious and historical roots of entrepreneurship, M.E. Sharpe 1996, pp. 14-18; see also: Willard J. Peterson: The Cambridge History of China, Volume 9, Part One: The Ch’ing Empire to 1800, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2002, p. 269

[8] Melissa J. Brown: Is Taiwan Chinese? The Impact of Culture, Power, and Migration on Changing Identities, University of California Press, Berkeley and Los Angeles 2004, p. 8

[9] See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: China: Defend the Muslim Uyghurs against Oppression! 18.10.2018,; by the same author: 37 Signatures Are Worth a Thousand Words. On a letter of 37 states, including Muslim countries, sent to the United Nations defending China's treatment of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, 16 July 2019,

[10] Amy Qin and Amy Chang Chien: ‘We Are Taiwanese’: China’s Growing Menace Hardens Island’s Identity, New York Times, 19 January 2022,

[11] We refer at this point to the often highly informative and thoughtful analysis of Vincent Kolo, a Chinese socialist and leading member of the ISA (which has a section in Taiwan). See e.g. New Cold War Perspectives: Will There Be a Taiwan War? Taiwan finds itself at the center of escalation in the US-China Cold War. The new Cold War is not a temporary phase in global relations — Biden’s anti-China policies aim to “win the 21st Century”,, 13 July 2021

[12] See on this e.g. RCIT: The Coming Inter-Imperialist War on Taiwan. Revolutionary Defeatism against both Great Powers – the U.S. as well as China! 10 October 2021,

[13] See on this e.g. League for a Revolutionary Communist International / Workers Power (Britain): The Degenerated Revolution. The Origin and Nature of the Stalinist States (1982), chapter “Tito and Mao: disobedient Stalinists”

[14] See LRCI: The Chinese Stalinist's Tiananmen Square Massacre (1989),