Russia’s Military Intervention in Kazakhstan: An Imperialist Power Takes Action

 

By Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 7 January 2022, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

The popular uprising in Kazakhstan against the capitalist authoritarian regime – in power since 1991 – is a key event of the current world situation. The RCIT and all progressive forces support the workers and popular masses fighting for democracy and social justice! [1]

 

This uprising has shocked Russia’s Putin regime. It quickly decided to send 3,000 troops as it considers this mass struggle as a direct threat. These troops are decisive for the capitalist authoritarian regime of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to keep in power.

 

On 5th January, the Kazakh masses had effectively taken over Almaty, the country’s largest city, including its airport. In response, the regime sent its most vicious crack forces – it is said that they have included Russian special forces [2] – in order to re-conquer the city. As a result, dozens of protestors have been killed.

 

There is no doubt that Russia is determined to smash the uprising as soon as possible. As one of the world’s imperialist Great Powers, Russia acts as the Gendarme of Eurasia. What are the concrete reasons for Moscow’s determination to liquidate the Kazakh Revolution?

 

 

 

Kazakhstan as a quintessential bridge between Europe and Asia

 

 

 

First, Kazakhstan is not only a neighboring country but also the politically and economically most important state in Central Asia. It is key to the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union. As an observer noted, “without Kazakhstan’s economy, there is no Eurasian Economic Union”. [3]

 

Furthermore, Russian monopolies have important foreign investments in Kazakhstan. Officially, Russian monopolies are the fourth-largest investor in this country. However, its real share is certainly substantially higher given the fact that Netherlands – a major destination of Russian offshore investment – is suspiciously by far the largest foreign investor (29.1% in 2017). [4]

 

In addition, Kazakhstan is home of the Baikonur Cosmodrome – the strategically crucial spaceport, which is leased to Moscow and where all crewed Russian spaceflights are launched to this day.

 

Finally, Moscow fears that the uprising could not only overthrow its allied regime in Nur-Sultan but also threaten the political stability in other Central Asian countries as well as in Russia itself. The Kremlin is aware that – according to a decent Levada Center poll, President Putin’s electoral rating — the number of Russians ready to vote for his re-election — is at 32%, a record low. [5] If the workers and poor in Russia see how an authoritarian regime in a neighboring country can be toppled by a popular uprising, they might turn so similar methods soon!

 

Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a Kremlin-linked think tank, points out that for all these reasons, “Russia had any choice but to intervene.” Pointing to a 2020 revolution in Kazakhstan’s Central Asian neighbor Kyrgyzstan, and last year’s Taliban takeover in Afghanistan, he explains: “Given how violent the unrest was and how unstable the region is, this seems like it was the only option. [6]

 

 

 

China supports Russia’s military intervention

 

 

 

China, another imperialist Great Power, has also large investments in Kazakhstan. Furthermore, the country plays a key role both for China’s energy import (e.g. the so-called China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline) as well as for Beijing’s global project – the so-called Belt & Road Initiative. [7]

 

In addition, China is keen to see the pacification of the mass protests in the neighboring country as there are strong ethnic bonds between the Kazakh people and China's Xinjiang region. This is a border province with a Uyghur-majority population – a Muslim people which has been brutally suppressed by Beijing since decades. [8] Hence, Beijing is worried that the mass unrest could instigate the Muslim Uyghur people. According to the Global Times – the English-language mouthpiece of the Stalinist-capitalist regime – “given the short distance between Almaty and China's Xinjiang region, China will increase its border controls. [9]

 

Furthermore, China – the main rival of U.S. imperialism – has been allied with Russia since a number of years. Both Moscow as well as Beijing fear that the overthrow of its allied regime in Kazakhstan could result in the decline of their influence in Central Asia – something which the U.S. and the European Union might try to exploit.

 

It is therefore only logical that supporters of Putin and Xi claim that the Kazakh uprising is the result of “foreign conspirators” in the service of Washington. Pepe Escobar, a notorious journalist and harbinger of Russian and Chinese imperialism, is already talking about “Kazakhstan’s color revolution” and “Maidan in Almaty”. [10] Likewise, Su Chang, a research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is quoted in the Global Times: “Who would benefit most from the riots? Probably the US and the West. Kazakhstan shares borders with both China and Russia, and the Biden administration's strategic purpose is to contain China and Russia. When Kazakhstan falls into chaos, the stability of the whole region would be affected. [11]

 

Of course, in a world characterized by an accelerating rivalry between the imperialist Great Powers (U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan), every power tries to exploit the problems of their rivals. Hence, Western media expressed their sympathy for the mass protests in Hong Kong while “Russia Today” gives much space to the Yellow Wests in France and the Anti-COVID protests in Western Europe.

 

However, it is utter nonsense to claim that all these mass movements have been provoked or even led by “foreign agents”. No, all these mass struggles had and have their origins in the class contradictions in their respective countries and the determination of the masses to improve their living conditions.

 

For all these reasons, it is hardly surprising that the Stalinist-capitalist regime in Beijing supports Russia’s military intervention in Kazakhstan.

 

 

 

Russia as an imperialist Great Power

 

 

 

The RCIT has demonstrated in several studies that Russia is an imperialist Great Power. [12] Its economy can not rival with that of the U.S. or China. Still, it is the world's eleventh-largest by nominal GDP, and the sixth-largest by PPP. At the same time, it has the largest number of nuclear warheads – together with the U.S. – and is the world’s second-largest arms exporter. (See Appendix)

 

As a result, Russia plays a crucial role in world politics as one of the five veto powers in the United Nations. While Russia plays less a global role – compared to the U.S. or China – it wields important influence in the Middle East (including in Syria, where its Air Force supports the Assad tyranny against a popular uprising, as well as in Libya where it backs General Haftar), in North, East and Central Africa (e.g. it is an important supporter of the military regime in Sudan), in Europe as well as in Asia (e.g. it is a key backer of the military regime in Burma-Myanmar).

 

In summary, Moscow’s military intervention in Kazakhstan is a practical example that Russia is an imperialist power which acts as the Gendarme of Eurasia. It is the foremost duty of socialists – in Russia as well as internationally – to oppose this reactionary intervention!

 

The RCIT emphasizes once more its unconditional solidarity with the popular uprising of the workers and poor in Kazakhstan. We support the struggle of the Kazakh people against Russian imperialism and call for the expulsion of the invaders! A successful revolution will establish a workers and popular government based on councils and militias which will make the country free of domination by any imperialist power!

 

 

 

Appendix

 

 

 

Table 1. World Nuclear Forces, 2020 [13]

 

Country                                Deployed Warheads        Other Warheads               Total Inventory

 

USA                                      1,800                                     3,750                                     5,550

 

Russia                                  1,625                                     4,630                                     6,255

 

UK                                         120                                        105                                        225

 

France                                  280                                        10                                           290

 

China                                                                               350                                        350

 

 

 

Table 2. The World’s 10 Top Exporters of Weapons, 2016-20 [14]

 

Rank                      Exporter                               Global Share (%)

 

1                             U.S.                                       37%

 

2                             Russia                                  20%

 

3                             France                                  8.2%

 

4                             Germany                             5.5%

 

5                             China                                   5.2%

 

 

 



[1] See on this two actual RCIT statements. Kazakhstan: Popular Uprisings Rocks the Authoritarian “Sistema”, 5 January 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/kazakhstan-popular-uprisings-rocks-the-authoritarian-sistema/; Kazakhstan: Tokayev and Putin Are Killers! Down with the Gendarme of Eurasia! mash the “sistema”! Organize and arm the popular masses! Kick out all Russian/CSTO troops! Against Russian imperialism – the Gendarme of Eurasia! 6 January 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/kazakhstan-tokayev-and-putin-are-killers/

All documents on this issues are published on a special page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/compilation-of-articles-on-the-popular-uprising-in-kazakhstan/

[2] Intellinews: CSTO comes out of the shadows for the first time, January 6, 2022, https://intellinews.com/csto-comes-out-of-the-shadows-for-the-first-time-231005/?source=russia

[3] Nikolas K. Gvosdev: What’s Really Behind the Protests in Kazakhstan? The National Interest, January 6, 2022, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what%E2%80%99s-really-behind-protests-kazakhstan-199070

[4] See on this our recently published study by Michael Pröbsting: The Peculiar Features of Russian Imperialism. A Study of Russia’s Monopolies, Capital Export and Super-Exploitation in the Light of Marxist Theory, 10 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/

[5] Felix Light: Russia’s Involvement in Kazakhstan’s Crisis Could Have Wide Implications, Moscow Times, January 6, 2022, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/06/russias-involvement-in-kazakhstans-crisis-could-have-wide-implications-a75985

[6] Felix Light: Russia’s Involvement in Kazakhstan’s Crisis Could Have Wide Implications, Moscow Times, January 6, 2022, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/06/russias-involvement-in-kazakhstans-crisis-could-have-wide-implications-a75985

[7] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in China and its transformation into a Great Power. See on this e.g. the book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/; see also by the same author an essay published in the second edition of The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (edited by Immanuel Ness and Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; How is it possible that some Marxists still Doubt that China has Become Capitalist? (A Critique of the PTS/FT), An analysis of the capitalist character of China’s State-Owned Enterprises and its political consequences, 18 September 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Unable to See the Wood for the Trees (PTS/FT and China). Eclectic empiricism and the failure of the PTS/FT to recognize the imperialist character of China, 13 August 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/. See many more RCIT documents at a special sub-page on the RCIT’s website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.

[8] See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: China: Defend the Muslim Uyghurs against Oppression! 18.10.2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/china-defend-the-muslim-uyghurs-against-oppression/; by the same author: 37 Signatures Are Worth a Thousand Words. On a letter of 37 states, including Muslim countries, sent to the United Nations defending China's treatment of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, 16 July 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/37-states-defend-china-s-treatment-of-uyghurs/; TV Discussion about the Situation of the Muslim Uyghurs in China, Report (with Pictures and Video) by the Austrian Section of the RCIT, 25 March 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit/tv-discussion-about-the-situation-of-the-muslim-uyghurs-in-china/

[9] Global Times: CSTO to send peacekeeping troops to help quell unrest in Kazakhstan,, 6 January 2022, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1245329.shtml

[10] Pepe Escobar: Steppe on fire: Kazakhstan’s color revolution, https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/01/06/steppe-on-fire-kazakhstan-color-revolution/

[11] Global Times: CSTO to send peacekeeping troops to help quell unrest in Kazakhstan,, 6 January 2022, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1245329.shtml

[12] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in Russia and its rise to an imperialist power. See on this e.g. several pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: The Peculiar Features of Russian Imperialism. A Study of Russia’s Monopolies, Capital Export and Super-Exploitation in the Light of Marxist Theory, 10 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/; Russia and China: Neither Capitalist nor Great Powers? A Reply to the PO/CRFI and their Revisionist Whitewashing of Chinese and Russian imperialism, 28 November 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/russia-and-china-neither-capitalist-nor-great-powers-reply-to-po-crfi/; The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, 27 May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism. Another Reply to Our Critics Who Deny Russia’s Imperialist Character, August 2014, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-theory-and-russia/; Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18 March 2014, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 21, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialist-russia/. See various other RCIT documents on this issue at a special sub-page on the RCIT’s website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.

[13] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: SIPRI Yearbook 2021. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, Summary, p. 12

[14] Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: SIPRI Yearbook 2021. Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, Summary, p. 15

 

La intervención militar rusa en Kazajstán: una potencia imperialista entra en acción

 

Por Michael Pröbsting, secretario Internacional de la Corriente Comunista Revolucionaria Internacional, CCRI, 7 de enero de 2022, www.thecommunists.net (Leer notas al pie y referencias aquí)

 

 

 

El levantamiento popular en Kazajstán contra el régimen autoritario capitalista, en el poder desde 1991, es un hecho clave de la situación mundial actual. ¡La CCRI y todas las fuerzas progresistas apoyan a los trabajadores y las masas populares que luchan por la democracia y la justicia social! [1]

 

Este levantamiento ha conmocionado al régimen de Putin, que rápidamente decidió enviar 3.000 soldados, ya que considera esta lucha de masas como una amenaza directa. Estas tropas son decisivas para que el régimen autoritario capitalista de Kassym-Jomart Tokayev se mantenga en el poder.

 

El 5 de enero, las masas kazajas se habían apoderado de Almaty, la ciudad más grande del país, incluido su aeropuerto. En respuesta, el régimen envió sus fuerzas de ataque más feroces - se dice que han incluido fuerzas especiales rusas [2] - con el fin de reconquistar la ciudad. Como resultado, decenas de manifestantes han muerto.

 

No hay duda de que Rusia está decidida a aplastar el levantamiento lo antes posible, ya que como una de las grandes potencias imperialistas del mundo, hace las veces de Gendarme de Eurasia. ¿Cuáles son las razones concretas de la determinación de Moscú de liquidar la revolución kazaja?

 

Kazajstán como puente por excelencia entre Europa y Asia

 

En primer lugar, Kazajstán no es solo un país vecino, sino también el estado política y económicamente más importante de Asia Central. Es clave para la Unión Económica Euroasiática dominada por Rusia. Como señaló un observador, "sin la economía de Kazajstán, no existe la Unión Económica Euroasiática". [3]

 

Además, los monopolios rusos tienen importantes inversiones extranjeras en Kazajstán, oficialmente, son el cuarto mayor inversor en este país. Sin embargo, su participación real es ciertamente sustancialmente mayor dado el hecho de que Holanda, un destino importante de la inversión extranjera rusa, es sospechosamente, con mucho, el mayor inversor extranjero (29,1% en 2017). [4]

 

Además, Kazajstán alberga el cosmódromo de Baikonur, el puerto espacial estratégicamente crucial, que está arrendado a Moscú y donde se lanzan todos los vuelos espaciales rusos tripulados hasta el día de hoy.

 

Finalmente, Moscú teme que el levantamiento no solo pueda derrocar a su régimen aliado en Nur-Sultan, sino que también amenace la estabilidad política en otros países de Asia Central, así como en la propia Rusia. El Kremlin es consciente de que, según una decente encuesta del Centro Levada, el índice electoral del presidente Putin, el número de rusos dispuestos a votar por su reelección, es del 32%, un mínimo histórico. [5] Si los trabajadores y los pobres en Rusia ven cómo un régimen autoritario en un país vecino puede ser derrocado por un levantamiento popular, ¡podrían recurrir pronto a métodos similares!

 

Andrei Kortunov, jefe del Consejo de Asuntos Internacionales de Rusia (RIAC), un grupo de expertos vinculado al Kremlin, señala, que,  por todas estas razones, "Rusia tuvo otra opción que intervenir". Señalando una revolución en 2020 en Kirguistán, el vecino de Asia central de Kazajstán, y la toma del poder de los talibanes en Afganistán el año pasado, explica: "Dado lo violentos que fueron los disturbios y lo inestable que es la región, esta parece ser la única opción". [6]

 

China apoya la intervención militar de Rusia

 

China, otra gran potencia imperialista, también tiene grandes inversiones en Kazajstán. Además, el país juega un papel clave tanto para la importación de energía de China (por ejemplo, el llamado Gasoducto China-Asia Central) como para el proyecto global de Beijing, la llamada Iniciativa Belt & Road. [7]

 

Además, China está ansiosa por ver la pacificación de las protestas masivas en el país vecino, ya que existen fuertes lazos étnicos entre el pueblo kazajo y la región china de Xinjiang. Esta es una provincia fronteriza con una población de mayoría uigur, un pueblo musulmán que ha sido brutalmente reprimido por Beijing durante décadas. [8] Por lo tanto, a Beijing le preocupa que los disturbios masivos puedan instigar al pueblo musulmán uigur. Según el Global Times, el portavoz en inglés del régimen capitalista estalinista, "dada la corta distancia entre Almaty y la región china de Xinjiang, China aumentará sus controles fronterizos". [9]

 

Por otra parte, China, el principal rival del imperialismo estadounidense, se ha aliado con Rusia desde hace varios años. Tanto Moscú como Pekín temen que el derrocamiento de su régimen aliado en Kazajstán pueda resultar en la disminución de su influencia en Asia Central, algo que Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea podrían intentar explotar.

 

Por lo tanto, es lógico que los partidarios de Putin y Xi afirmen que el levantamiento kazajo es el resultado de "conspiradores extranjeros" al servicio de Washington. Pepe Escobar, un notorio periodista y precursor del imperialismo ruso y chino, ya está hablando de "la revolución del color de Kazajstán" y "Maidan en Almaty". [10] Asimismo, Su Chang, investigador del Instituto de Estudios de Rusia, Europa del Este y Asia Central de la Academia China de Ciencias Sociales, es citado en el Global Times: “¿Quién se beneficiaría más de los disturbios? Probablemente Estados Unidos y Occidente. Kazajstán comparte fronteras con China y Rusia, y el propósito estratégico de la administración Biden es contener a China y Rusia. Cuando Kazajstán caiga en el caos, la estabilidad de toda la región se verá afectada ". [11]

 

Por supuesto, en un mundo caracterizado por una rivalidad acelerada entre las grandes potencias imperialistas (EE.UU., China, Rusia, UE y Japón), todas estas intentan explotar los problemas de sus rivales. Por lo tanto, los medios occidentales expresaron su simpatía por las protestas masivas en Hong Kong, mientras que "Russia Today" da mucho espacio a los Yellow Wests en Francia y las protestas Anti-COVID en Europa Occidental.

 

Sin embargo, es una tontería afirmar que todos estos movimientos de masas han sido provocados o incluso dirigidos por "agentes extranjeros". No, todas estas luchas de masas tuvieron y tienen su origen en las contradicciones de clase en sus respectivos países y en la determinación de las masas por mejorar sus condiciones de vida. Por todas estas razones, no es de extrañar que el régimen capitalista estalinista de Beijing apoye la intervención militar de Rusia en Kazajstán.

 

Rusia como gran potencia imperialista

 

La CCRI ha demostrado en varios estudios que Rusia es una Gran Potencia imperialista. [12] Su economía no puede rivalizar con la de Estados Unidos o China. Aún así, es el undécimo más grande del mundo por PIB nominal y el sexto por PPA. Al mismo tiempo, tiene la mayor cantidad de ojivas nucleares, junto con Estados Unidos, y es el segundo exportador de armas más grande del mundo. (Ver el Apéndice)

 

Como resultado, Rusia juega un papel crucial en la política mundial como uno de los cinco poderes de veto en las Naciones Unidas. Si bien Rusia juega un papel menos global, en comparación con los EE. UU. o China, ejerce una influencia importante en el Medio Oriente (incluso en Siria, donde su Fuerza Aérea apoya a la tiranía de Assad, así como en Libia, donde respalda al General Haftar), en el norte, este y centro de África (por ejemplo, es un importante partidario del régimen militar en Sudán), en Europa y en Asia (por ejemplo, es un patrocinador clave del régimen militar en Birmania-Myanmar).

 

En resumen, la intervención militar de Moscú en Kazajstán es un ejemplo práctico de que Rusia es una potencia imperialista que actúa como Gendarme de Eurasia. ¡Es el deber principal de los socialistas, tanto en Rusia como a nivel internacional, oponerse a esta intervención reaccionaria!

 

La CCRI destaca una vez más su solidaridad incondicional con el levantamiento popular de los trabajadores y pobres en Kazajstán. ¡Apoyamos la lucha del pueblo kazajo contra el imperialismo ruso y pedimos la expulsión de los invasores! ¡Una revolución exitosa establecerá un gobierno obrero y popular basado en consejos y milicias que liberará al país del dominio de cualquier potencia imperialista!

 

 

 

러시아의 카자흐스탄 군사개입

제국주의 강대국이 자신의 세력권에서 행동을 취하다

 

미하엘 프뢰브스팅, 혁명적 공산주의인터내셔널 동맹 (RCIT) 국제서기, 2022 1 7, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

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자본가 권위주의 정권에 대항하는 카자흐스탄의 민중봉기는 세계정세의 주요 모순이 응축된 사건이다. RCIT 모든 진보 세력은 민주주의와 사회적 정의를 위해 싸우는 노동자·민중을 지지한다![1]

 

봉기는 러시아 푸틴 정권에 충격을 안겨주었다. 푸틴 정권은 대중투쟁을 직접적 위협으로 간주하여 신속하게 3,000명의 병력을 파견하기로 결정했다. 지금 토카예프 폭압 자본가 정권이 권력을 유지하는 군대가 결정적이라는 것은 두말 나위가 없다.

 

1 5, 카자흐스탄 대중은 카자흐스탄 최대 도시 알마티를 알마티 공항을 포함하여 실질적으로 장악했다. 이에 정권은 알마티 시를 재점령하기 위해 가장 포악하고 잔학한 진압병력을 보냈다. 여기에는 러시아 특수부대도 포함된 것으로 알려져 있다. 그로 인해 시위자 수십 명이 죽임을 당했다.

 

러시아가 가능한 빨리 봉기를 박살내기로 결심했다는 것에는 의심의 여지가 없다. 세계 제국주의 강대국 하나로서 러시아는 유라시아의 헌병 역할을 한다. 러시아가 카자흐 혁명을 정리하기로 결심한 구체적인 이유는 무엇인가?

 

 

 

아시아와 유럽을 잇는 대표적 가교로서의 카자흐스탄

 

첫째, 카자흐스탄은 러시아의 인접국이면서 중앙아시아에서 정치적, 경제적으로 가장 중요한 국가다. 러시아가 지배하는 유라시아경제연합(EAEU) 핵심축으로 현재 부각되고 있다. "카자흐스탄 경제 없이는 유라시아경제연합도 없다" 관측자의 지적처럼 말이다.[3]

 

더욱이 러시아의 독점체들이 카자흐스탄에 중요한 외국인투자 지분을 가지고 있다. 공식적으로는 러시아 독점기업들이 나라의 4 투자자다. 그러나 러시아 역외투자의 주요 목적지인 네덜란드가 단연 최대 외국인투자자 (2017 29.1%)라는 사실을 감안하면 러시아의 실질 지분은 확실히 높다.[4]

 

이에 더해 카자흐스탄은 전략적으로 중요한 우주 기지인 바이코누르 코스모드롬의 본거지다. 우주 기지는 모스크바에 임대되어 오늘까지 모든 러시아 유인 우주비행이 여기서 발사되고 있다.

 

마지막으로, 러시아는 카자흐스탄 봉기가 동맹 정권의 전복뿐만 아니라 다른 중앙아시아 나라들과 러시아의 정치적 안정까지도 위협할 있을까봐 두려워한다. 푸틴 정권은 오는 대선에서 자신의 재선에 투표할 용의가 있는 러시아인들의 수가 사상 최저인 32% 현재 러시아 주요 여론조사기관들에 따르면 밖에 된다는 것을 의식하고 있다.[5] 러시아의 노동자와 빈곤 대중이 인접국의 권위주의 정권이 민중봉기에 의해 어떻게 무너질 있는지를 본다면, 비슷한 방법으로 방향을 틀지도 모른다!

 

푸틴 정권과 연계된 싱크탱크인 러시아국제관계위원회(RIAC) 안드레이 코르투노프 위원장은 이런 모든 이유로 "러시아가 개입하는 말고 다른 선택지가 없었다" 지적한다. 그는 카자흐스탄 인접국 키르기스스탄의 2020 혁명과 지난해 탈레반의 아프간 탈환을 가리키며 다음과 같이 설명한다. "소요가 얼마나 폭력적이었는지, 지역이 얼마나 불안정한지 감안할 방법밖에 없었던 같다."[6]

 

 

 

중국이 러시아의 군사개입을 지지하다

 

다른 제국주의 강대국 중국도 카자흐스탄에 투자 지분을 가지고 있다. 나아가 중국의 에너지 수입에서도 (예를 들어, ‘중국-중앙아시아 가스 파이프라인’), 중국 정부의 일대일로 사업에서도 카자흐스탄은 모두 중요한 비중을 점한다.[7]

 

이에 더해 카자흐스탄 인민과 중국 신장 지역 민족적 유대가 강해 중국으로선 인접국에서의 대규모 시위가 번지지 않고 빠르게 진정되기를 바라며 예의주시하고 있다. 신장 (동투르키스탄) 수십 이래로 중국 정부에 의해 잔인하게 탄압 받아온 무슬림 위구르족이 주민의 다수를 점하는 국경지대다.[8] 대중소요가 위구르 인민의 반란을 부추길 있다고 중국 정부가 우려하는 것도 때문이다. 중국 스탈린주의-자본가 정권의 대변지 환구시보에 따르면, “알마티와 중국 신장 지역 사이의 짧은 거리를 고려할 , 중국은 국경 통제를 강화할 것이다.”[9]

 

더욱이 제국주의의 라이벌인 중국은 수년 전부터 러시아와 동맹을 맺고 있다. 러시아와 중국 모두 카자흐스탄 동맹 정권의 전복이 중앙아시아에서의 영향력 축소로 결과할까봐 우려하고 있다. 당연히 미국과 EU 노리는 바다.

 

따라서 푸틴과 시진핑의 지지자들이 카자흐스탄 봉기가 미국 "외세의 사주" 인한 것이라고 주장하는 것은 논리적으로는 가능하다. 악명 높은 언론인으로, 러시아·중국 제국주의의 전령으로 복무하는 페페 에스코바르가 이미 카자흐스탄의 색깔 혁명”, “알마티의 마이단 [우크라이나의 반동 우익 운동]” 운운하고 있다.[10] 중국 사회과학원의 러시아·동유럽·중앙아시아 연구소의 연구원인 쑤창은 환구시보에서 다음과 같이 말했다. “누가 폭동으로 가장 이득을 보는가? 아마도 미국과 서방일 것이다. 카자흐스탄은 중국·러시아와 모두 국경을 접하고 있으며, 바이든 정부의 전략적 목적은 중국과 러시아를 봉쇄하는 것이다. 카자흐스탄이 혼란에 빠지면 지역 전체의 안정이 영향을 받을 것이다."[11]

 

물론 제국주의 강대국들 (미국, 중국, 러시아, EU, 일본) 패권경쟁이 가속화하고 있는 세계에서 강대국 누구든 자신의 라이벌이 부닥친 어려움을 서로 이용하려고 한다. 서방 언론들이 홍콩의 대규모 시위에 공감을 표하고, 반대로 국영방송 <러시아 투데이> 프랑스의 노란조끼 운동과 서유럽의 ()코로나 시위에 많은 보도 시간을 할애하는 것도 때문이다.

 

그러나 모든 대중운동들이 "외세 프락치" 의해 사주 촉발된 것이라는, 또는 심지어 이들이 주도하고 이끈 것이라는 주장은 완전히 헛소리다. 대중투쟁 모두가 해당 나라의 계급 모순에 발단을 두고 있고, 자신의 생활조건을 개선하고자 하는 대중의 결의에서 비롯했다.

 

이러한 모든 이유로 베이징의 스탈린주의-자본가 정권이 러시아의 카자흐스탄 군사 개입을 지지하는 것은 놀라운 일이 아니다.

 

 

 

제국주의 강대국으로서의 러시아

 

RCIT 러시아가 제국주의 강대국이라는 것을 여러 연구문서에서 보여줘 왔다.[12] 러시아의 경제는 미국 또는 중국의 경제와 적수가 없다. 그럼에도 러시아는 명목 GDP 세계 11 대국이고, 구매력 평가지수 (PPP) 기준으로 6 대국이다. 동시에, 러시아는 미국과 함께 가장 많은 수의 핵탄두를 보유하고 있으며 세계에서 번째로 무기 수출국이다. (아래 부록 참조)

 

결과, 러시아는 거부권을 갖는 유엔 안보리 5 상임이사국 하나로 세계정치에서 중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 러시아가 미국이나 중국에 비해 글로벌 역할은 상대적으로 작지만, 중동에서 (군사개입을 통해 아사드 폭정을 지원하며 민중항쟁을 짓이기고 있는 시리아에서, 그리고 군벌 하르타르 장군의 뒷배를 봐주고 있는 리비아에서 등등), ··중앙 아프리카에서 (예를 들어 수단 군사정권의 주요 후원자로서), 유럽에서, 아시아에서 (미얀마 쿠데타 군부의 핵심 뒷배로서) 모두 중요한 영향력을 행사하고 있다.

 

요약하자면 러시아의 카자흐스탄 군사개입은 러시아가 유라시아의 헌병 역할을 하는 제국주의 열강임을 보여주는 실제적 사례다. 이러한 반동적 개입에 반대하는 것은 사회주의자들 러시아에서, 그리고 국제적으로 최우선 의무다!

 

RCIT 카자흐스탄 노동자·빈민의 민중봉기와의 무조건적인 연대를 다시 강조한다. 우리는 러시아 제국주의에 대항하는 카자흐스탄 인민의 투쟁을 지지하며 침략자들의 축출을 요구한다! 평의회와 민병에 기반한 노동자·민중 정부를 수립하는 성공적인 혁명이 카자흐스탄을 어느 제국주의 열강의 지배로부터도 자유롭게 해줄 것이다.

 

 

 

부록

 

1. 세계 무력, 2020 [13]

 

나라 실전배치 핵탄두