World Perspectives 2020: A Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation


Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries


Adopted by the International Executive Committee of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT) on 8 February 2020,


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1.             In the following theses we will summarize and update the analysis of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT) which we have elaborated in the past few months in a number of documents. [1] Furthermore, we will present an outlook to possible next developments and draw the most important conclusions for the tasks of revolutionaries.






The most important turning point in world politics since 2008




2.             We are currently experiencing the most important turning point in world politics since the beginning of the historic period which opened in 2008. As the RCIT has elaborated, this long-term historic period of capitalist decay has a profound revolutionary character. [2] At the same time it is divided into a number of shorter phases with different character. Such we had, for example, the first phase of “innocent” uprisings in 2011-13 or the phase characterized by a counter-revolutionary offensive which began in 2016. The acceleration of the global political and economic class contradictions has resulted in the transformation of quantity into quality. [3] A pre-revolutionary world situation has opened up in autumn 2019. Applying the methodological approach as it was developed by Lenin and Trotsky we can conclude the following. The rise to power of right-wing populists like Trump, Johnson, Bolsonaro, Modi, etc., the ruptures in the imperialist-globalist world order and the rapid acceleration of Great Power rivalry as well as the ever-worsening climate crisis – all that demonstrates that the “it is impossible for the ruling classes to maintain their rule without any change”. Likewise, the global spreading of liberation struggles and uprisings like wildfire on nearly all continents reflects that ““the lower classes don’t want to live in the old way” and that “there is a considerable increase in the activity of the masses”. (Lenin) [4]


3.             The fundamental developments which have caused this radical change are:


a) The global wave of class struggles and popular uprisings which has affected nearly all continents; [5]


b) The onset of another Great Recession which will most likely be worse than the last one in 2008/09; [6]


c) The Cold War between the U.S. and China – the two largest imperialist Great Powers; [7]


d) The domestic political crisis and upheavals in crucial countries of the imperialist world order (e.g. U.S., Britain and Israel); [8]


e) The increasing political repercussions of the dramatic climate crisis. [9]


These axes of contradictions are related with each other and have a bearing on each other. To give a few examples: the mass strike against the pension reform in France, the Global Trade War and the 2019 Corona Virus pandemia all affect economic growth. The Great Power rivalry accelerates the drive of the imperialists to exploit the Arctic resources with negative consequences for the climate. In short, these developments interactively deepen the capitalist crisis dynamic. While there are still many bourgeois nostalgic who hope for a return to the “good old days” of a stable imperialist world order, the smarter among them realize that these days have gone and a new period of turbulence” with a an “unsettled geopolitical landscape” is “the new normal”. [10] These developments do not come as a surprise for Marxists as they have been predicted by the RCIT in past documents. [11]






Global wave of class struggles




4.             The most important feature of this new situation is the global wave of class struggles and popular uprisings which has spread to important continents in the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, Africa and Western Europe since autumn 2019. In most cases these struggles have been provoked by attacks of the regimes on social or democratic rights. In some cases, these uprisings have met vicious repression by the ruling class resulting in dozens (Chile, India, Sudan) or even hundreds of death (Iraq, Iran). In addition, there are several highly important liberation struggles in crucial regions which are going on for a long time (Syria, Palestine, Kashmir and Afghanistan). The insurrectional and wide-spread nature of this global wave of struggles has caused even bourgeois commentators to compare the current situation with revolutionary upheavals like 1848 or 1968.


5.             If we subdivide by region the most important of these struggles and uprisings which took place in the past six months – and which are still continuing in a number of cases as we write these lines – we can name Iraq [12], Iran [13], Syria [14], Lebanon [15], Libya [16], Yemen [17], Egypt [18], Palestine [19], and Algeria [20] (Middle East); India [21], Hong Kong [22], Kashmir [23], and Afghanistan [24] (Asia); Chile [25], Bolivia [26], Ecuador, [27] Honduras [28], Nicaragua [29] and Haiti (Latin America); Sudan [30] and Somalia [31] (Sub-Sahara Africa); France [32] and Catalunya [33] (Europe).


6.             There is every reason to expect a continuation or even further spreading of this global wave of struggles. A few weeks ago, a bourgeois research firm in Britain published a survey which concludes that “in 2019, people in many countries expressed brewing outrage by taking to the streets with violent protests. The protests were an unexpected and surprising development for the leaders of the countries. Some of the governments attempted to resolve the cause of the discontent. However, the causes for their displeasure are plenty and deeply rooted in their hearts, finding solutions to which could take many years.” While, according to this survey 47 countries of the world witnessed “an outburst of discontent involving protests and violence” in 2019, the authors of the study think that in 2020 a “flare-up of civil unrest” will be possible in 75 countries or almost 40% of the 195 countries across the globe. [34] While the bourgeois category of “civil unrest” is not necessary identical with liberation struggles as it also includes reactionary mobilizations, this figure nevertheless reflects the profound turmoil of the capitalist world order.


7.             In many cases these struggles bear a strongly spontaneous character. Often, women activists are in the forefront of the struggles. In all cases, youth are dominating the mass movements. These struggles reflect the emergence of new generations of activists who are enraged about the reactionary government and repelled by the established political forces and who, at the same time, desperately desire radical change here and now. Under such circumstances, it is unavoidable that the willingness to give sacrifices is combined with massive illusions in “technocratic” governments, a peaceful road of the revolution, etc. Revolutionaries have to be part of these mass movements from the beginning, advocate the necessary tactics to advance the struggles, pedagogically explain the shortcomings of such predominant illusions, and at the same time, try to play a leading role in these movements. All tactics need to be integrated into a transitional program combining the defense of social and democratic gains with the building of workers and popular councils and militias and the strategic goal of a socialist revolution and the creation of workers and popular governments. [35]


8.             However, it would be highly mistaken to imagine that these struggles take place without political organizations. In fact, various reformist, nationalist or Islamist parties and movement play a more or less important role in these liberation struggles. To name a few examples: the CPI(M) in India; various bourgeois-democratic and petty-bourgeois democratic forces in Hong Kong; JKLF in Kashmir; Taliban in Afghanistan; HTS in Syria, Frente Amplio and PCC in Chile; MAS in Bolivia; Sudanese CP and various bourgeois democratic forces in Sudan; Al-Shabaab in Somalia; the CGT, CFDT, FO, LFI and PCF in France; or the ERC and CUP in Catalunya. In some cases, such organizations dominate and largely control the struggles; in other cases they play an influential role.


9.             While the rank and file activists of these organizations and movements often play a useful and constructive role in these struggles, their bureaucratic leaderships usually act as obstacles. They either hope to channel the struggle to gain more votes at the next elections or to get a place in a new government, they try to pacify them in order to avoid a full confrontation with the current regime or they lead them into a cul-de-sac of a reactionary capitalist project under nationalist or religious fig-leaf. The fact that revolutionary forces have been unable until now to lead such struggles reflects the historic crisis of revolutionary leadership. Overcoming this crisis by building a Revolutionary World Party is the most important task of our times!






Another Great Recession has begun




10.          As we have elaborated in more detail in the above mentioned document, the capitalist world economy is entering another Great Recession. At this point we will limit ourselves to a few updates. True, the professional economists paid by the bourgeoisie are cautious to officially concede this fact – as it is usually the case (even IMF researchers have to admit that economists “are particularly good at missing recessions” [36]). However, nearly all forecasts of bourgeois economists are gloomy about the prospects of the capitalist world economy. And the more honest among them are ready to admit the decline. For example James Sweeney, chief economist at Credit Suisse, conceded that “global manufacturing and trade have been in a slump since late 2018.[37] Even the IMF boss now warns that the global economy risks a return of the Great Depression. [38]


11.          In any case, all known facts indicate that the world economy is about or has already started to contract. Industrial production – the core sector of capitalist value creation – has started to decline. (See Table 1) According to the Global Manufacturing PMI index of J.P.Morgan manufacturing “remain[s] only marginally above the 50.0 waterline that separates expansion from contraction[39] Similarly, global trade growth “was the fourth-weakest year since 1980, and the three worse years – 1982, 2001 and 2009 – were all associated with global recessions.[40] Capitalist profits face gloomy prospects. J.P.Morgan notes that in 2019 “there was an earnings recession in the US, Europe and Japan.[41]




Table 1. Global Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade, 2019 (in Volume, Quarter on Quarter) [42]


                                                                                Q1 2019                                Q2 2019                                Q3 2019


World Industrial Production                         0.1                          0.0                          -0.1


World Merchandise Trade                             -0.3                         -0.7                         0.6




12.          According to the latest issue of the Federal Reserve Bank, industrial production in the U.S. declined in four of the last six months in 2019 and was 1% lower in December than one year before. (See Table 2). And according to the latest official EU survey, investments in the Euro Area’s industry sector declined by -2% in 2019. [43] Likewise, China experienced its lowest economic growth in 30 years.




Table 2. Industrial Production in the U.S., 2019 [44]


Q2          Q3          Q4                          July         Aug        Sept        Oct          Nov        Dec                         Dec. 2018


(Annual Rate)                                       (Monthly Rate)                                                                                     to Dec. 2019


-2.3%     1.2%       -0.5%                     -0.2%     0.8%       -0.5%     -0.5%     0.8%       -0.3%                     -1.0%




13.          As we have outlined repeatedly, the current crisis is the result of the long-term tendency of capitalism to decline. It’s most fundamental cause is, as Marx explained in Capital, the tendency of the profit rate to fall. [45] At this point we will limit ourselves to demonstrate this tendency of capitalist decline by reproducing two tables which show the long-term deceleration of labor productivity growth both in the old imperialist economies (the so-called G7) as well as the so-called major emerging economies (a misplaced category of bourgeois economists which conflates new imperialist countries like China and Russia with industrialized semi-colonial countries). These tables demonstrate once more the declining dynamic of capitalism in all parts of the world. (See Table 3 and 4)




Table 3. Labor Productivity Growth in Imperialist G7 Economies 1970-2018 [46]


GDP per hour worked (Annual average percent change)


Country                                 1970-     1995-     2000-     2005-     2010-     2014-


                                                1996       2000       2005       2010       2014       2018


Canada                                 1,37        1,9          1,2          0,6          1,3          0,7


France                                   3,09        1,8          1,5          0,3          0,9          0,7


Germany                              2,90        1,9          1,4          0,7          1,1          0,7


Italy                                       2,65        1,0          0,1          -0,2         0,3          0,0


Japan                                     3,33        2,3          1,7          0,6          0,8          0,9


United Kingdom               2,56        2,4          2,1          0,7          0,0          0,6


United States                      1,52        2,3          2,5          1,8          0,3          0,7




Table 4. Labor Productivity Growth in China, Russia and Major Semi-Colonial Countries 2000-2017 [47]


Growth of GDP per Person Employed (Annual average percent change)


                                                                                2000-2007            2008-2015            2015       2016       2017


Major Emerging Economies                          5.6                          4.4                          2.2          2.9          3.4


Brazil                                                                    0.9                          0.8                          -4.0         -1.8         1.0


Russian Federation                                          6.4                          1.0                          -3.9         -0.3         1.5


India                                                                      5.3                          5.7                          5.8          6.1          4.8


China (Alternative)                                           8.8                          6.9                          3.2          3.6          4.1


China (Official)                                                  10.1                        8.8                          7.2          7.0          7.3


South Africa                                                        2.9                          0.1                          -2.5         0.0          -1.1


Mexico                                                                  0.9                          -0.2                         0.2          0.3          0.8


Indonesia                                                             3.5                          3.9                          4.5          3.1          3.1


Turkey                                                                  4.8                          1.4                          3.2          1.0          2.8




14.          This recession is likely to be worse than the last one in 2008/09. The reasons are, first, that the rivalry between the Great Powers has massively increased, hence it is nearly impossible that they will agree on joint coordinated efforts to counter the crisis. Secondly, as we have shown in past documents, indebtedness has substantially increased since the last recession – both of non-financial corporations as well as of states. According to a recent study, non-financial corporate debt in the U.S. was nearly $10 trillion (as of the end of the first quarter of 2019), which is almost 47% of GDP, “the highest it has been since data has been available”, as the authors note alarmingly. [48] China experienced the fastest growth of debt since 2008. According to the Institute of International Finance China’s gross debt surged dramatically from 171% of GDP in Q4 2008 to 299% in Q1 2018. This increase of debts has continued since then. [49] Given such a substantial increase in indebtedness, it will be much more difficult for the ruling classes – both in East and West – to ensure a massive state-capitalist intervention in order to come to the rescue of capitalist corporations via cheap loans, public spending programs, etc. (as they did in the last Great Recession in 2008/09).






The Decay of Capitalist Civilization




15.          The RCIT’s has always characterized the historic period which opened in 2008 as a “revolutionary period” which is hallmarked by a “decay of humanity’s productive forces”. In our foundation program we wrote: “As a result, enormous dangers threaten humanity including impoverishment, (nuclear) wars, and environmental disasters. The alternative “socialism or barbarism” – formulated by the revolutionary Rosa Luxembourg – expresses what threats humanity faces: there is a danger of a historical retrogression, of social regression through natural disasters, wars right up to nuclear war, by famine, etc caused by capitalism. [50] Hence, when we speak about the crisis of capitalism, we mean not only an economic crisis but a comprehensive crisis of capitalist civilization. Such an understanding has been elaborated in more detail in other documents. [51]


16.          As a matter of fact, the capitalism caused climate change is becoming increasingly so visible that only the dullest blockheads a la Trump and Bolsonaro can deny its existence. The dramatic bushfire in Australia has provoked much attention in the Western media and rightly so. However, it is primarily the semi-colonial countries of the South which are most dramatically affected by the climate change. In 2019, flooding and landslides, triggered by torrential monsoon rains, swept across India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, leaving devastation in each country. China, Vietnam, Japan, India, Bangladesh, South Korea, Thailand, Sri Lanka and the Philippines, were all hit by tropical storms and typhoons -- or cyclones --, causing hundreds of thousands displaced and millions of dollars in damage. On average, 43,000 people in Asia-Pacific are killed in storms, floods, and landslides each year. All in all, about 2.4 billion people -- about half the population of Asia -- live in areas vulnerable to extreme weather events. [52] A similar situation exists in Africa, where the tropical cyclone Idai destroyed parts of Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Malawi in spring 2019. [53]


17.          There can be little doubt that climate change threatens the living condition of large parts of humanity. According to serious studies the current emissions trend will bring a new era of climate disasters by 2029 (!) in Sri Lanka, 2031 in Mexico and 2034 in India. [54] Western imperialist countries, i.e. those which caused the climate catastrophe from its very beginning, are more likely to enter the new stage around 2050. Even with the Paris Agreement this catastrophe will be postponed for another 20 years but it will not be stopped. Even bourgeois analysts like McKinsey are deeply worried: “Intensifying climate hazards could put millions of lives at risk, as well as trillions of dollars of economic activity and physical capital, and the world’s stock of natural capital. [55] In any case, without a radical political and economic change, we will face the beginning of the end of human life on earth.


18.          The climate change is a central but not the only feature of the decay of capitalist civilization. The crazy hunt for profit, decreasing investments in public hygiene standards, widespread misery etc. are the conditions in which pandemia like the 2019 Corona Virus (2019-nCoV) can quickly spread around the world. In this case it took only weeks until the virus spread from Wuhan (China) to other Asian countries, the U.S. and Europe. One can take it for granted that we will see more such kind of pandemia in the future which far-reaching social and political consequences. Among them are, first and foremost, the deaths of numerous people and adverse health effects for many more. However, the 2019-nCoV was utilized by the Chinese regime to test a number of measures (forced quarantine, face recognition with fever detectors, etc.) which offers data opening the door for new dictatorial methods against uprisings. In addition, such pandemia will have massive negative consequences for the economy as it will result in the reduction of transport, closures of factories, reduced capacity of labor forces to work, cancellation of public events, etc. According to Bloomberg the coronavirus has already wiped $1.5 trillion off the value of world stock markets in only one week time after 20 January. [56] Human losses could be devastating. A 2018 study estimated that another global influenza pandemic could kill 720,000 people and cost $500bn, or 0.6 percent of global income per year. [57] Chinese imperialism can blame the virus for the upcoming recession and the other imperialists can blame China for the same.


19.          Furthermore, such events will be utilized by capitalist regimes to increase control and surveillance of the population as well as to launch chauvinistic campaigns against other countries (see e.g. the petition campaign in South Korea to ban all Chinese from entering their country [58]). However, such catastrophes also undermine public trust in governments. In any case, such pandemia might become an important issue in world politics and revolutionaries have to elaborate a program of action which combines a set of health measures with the struggle for power. [59]






New Cold War between the U.S. and China




20.          As the RCIT has elaborated in a number of documents, the decay of capitalism inevitable provokes an accelerating rivalry between the imperialist Great Powers (U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan). [60] This in turn results in serious ruptures of the political world order and will finally destroy it. The most important factor in this development is the Cold War between the two largest Great Powers – the U.S. and China. No one should have any illusions about the recently concluded so-called “Phase One” Deal between the two sides. It is nothing more than a short-term truce in the trade war between Washington and Beijing which will break down rather sooner than later. [61] By 1 October 2019, 66% of all U.S. imports of Chinese goods and 60.9% of all Chinese imports of U.S. goods were affected by the tariffs of the respective rival. [62] Most of these tariffs remain in place even after the so-called truce.


21.          In any case, the Cold War between the U.S. and China has not been caused by “imbalances in trade” but rather by the fundamental struggle between the two powers for global hegemony. [63] More precisely, it has been caused by the decline of the U.S. as the long-time absolute hegemon and the rise of China as its most important challenger. While China is overall still the second-largest imperialist power, it has already overtaken its rival in world trade and industrial production. In addition, China is the world leader in patent applications with 40% of the global total, a share more than two times larger than that of the United States and four times larger than that of Japan. [64] Together, these two countries account for over 40% of global GDP. Hence we see an ongoing struggle between two camps in high-technology sectors like Artificial Intelligence or in 5G (the latest generation of mobile networks) where the U.S. tries to force its allies to ban the Chinese giant Huwai. [65] Clearly, there is a lot at stake as the bourgeois analysts of STRATFOR acknowledge: “Huawei represents but one facet of the sprawling global tech competition that will continue to rage between the United States and China. There is much at stake: Winning the race to develop a specific new technology will allow the victor, whether Washington or Beijing, to begin to set that technology's global standards by default.[66]


22.          Likewise we see increasing political and military tensions in the South resp. East China Sea. While domestic factors could both reinforce as well as mitigate the determination of Trump resp. Xi to intensify the conflict in the next few months (electoral considerations in the U.S., the 2019 Corona Virus crisis in China), it is inevitable that the Cold War between the U.S. and China will accelerate. Sooner or later it will result in a kind of decoupeling between the two economies, the creation of definite political and military blocs and, ultimately, this development will raise the specter of another World War. It is hardly surprising that bourgeois analysts are deeply worried about such developments. Such write the Eurasia Group in its recently published annual report: As this decoupling occurs, US-China tensions will lead to a more explicit clash over national security, influence, and values. The two sides will continue to use economic tools in this struggle—sanctions, export controls, and boycotts—with shorter fuses and goals that are more explicitly political. Companies and other governments will find it harder to avoid being caught in the crossfire. This struggle has hard-edged realism – great power rivalry – at its core. It’s not yet as starkly ideological as the classic Cold War formulation of capitalism vs. socialism. But as tensions escalate, divergences between the two countries’ political structures are bringing irreconcilable differences to the fore. The US-China rivalry will increasingly be waged as a clash of values and animated by patriotic fervor. [67]


23.          While the Cold War between the U.S. and China is the most important axis of Great Power conflicts, it is by no means the only one. The ongoing tensions of the U.S. and also the European Union with Russia, the trade war between Japan and South Korea, Trump’s repeated threats of trade wars against all other powers – all this demonstrates so clearly that the favorite term in diplomatic circles, “international community”, does not exist in reality and that it is simple an unintended parody of the “good old times”. In fact we are living in a period of the irreversible breakdown of the imperialist world order which will be replaced by a highly instable world (dis)order dominated by a few camps led by Great Powers which are in a state of Cold War against in each other. Naturally such a process does not take place gradually but rather via sharp ruptures provoked by domestic crisis and/or sudden clashes in foreign policy.


24.          The next few years will decide which role Japan and the European Union will play in such a scenario. In order to act as independent, first-rank Great Powers, i.e. not as imperialist junior partners of another Great Power, the ruling classes in these two regions must succeed in enforcing a domestic political “revolution” from above, or, more precisely, a “counter-revolution”. Tokyo must finally get rid of its “pacifist” constitution so that it can conduct its independent military intervention abroad and get rid of the long-term U.S. dominance. The European Union must finally succeed in creating a kind of powerful political super-structure above its national states which can ensure a united European economic, foreign and military policy. We can expect massive political struggles on these issues as such moves fundamentally shatter long-standing political institutions and relations of forces.


25.          We conclude this chapter by emphasizing once more that the Great Power rivalry is one of the most important features of the present historic period that began in 2008. We repeat that the precondition for a correct understanding of world developments lies in the recognition of the imperialist nature, not only of the old powers – the U.S., Western Europe and Japan – but also of the new, emerging imperialist powers, China and Russia. Only on the basis of such a Marxist understanding is it possible to take a consistent revolutionary and anti-imperialist stance in emerging conflicts like the Global Trade War. This means a position of consistently opposing all imperialist powers and intransigently fighting all expressions of national chauvinism and militarism. Revolutionaries must ceaselessly advocate the only correct, anti-imperialist program on this issue – proletarian internationalism and revolutionary defeatism, i.e., the perspective of consistent struggle of the working class independent of and against all imperialist powers. This means that revolutionaries refuse to lend support to any Great Power in inter-imperialist conflicts under the slogan famously raised by Karl Liebknecht ‘The main enemy is at home! In contrast to the reformist social-patriots who side either with the European Union or with Chinese and Russian imperialism, revolutionaries raise the slogans: “Workers and Oppressed: Fight all Great Powers in East and West!” and ”Neither Washington nor Beijing but World Revolution of our Time! [68]






Imperialist Aggression against Semi-Colonial Countries




26.          A major characteristic of the current world situation is the massive and increasing imperialist aggression in the semi-colonial countries of the South. It is crucial that revolutionaries intransigently oppose all these interventions – both those of Western imperialists (like the U.S. and the European Powers) as well as of the Eastern imperialists (like Russia) – and support the just liberation struggles of the oppressed people. Below we will briefly deal with the most important cases of such struggles.


27.          The ongoing war in Afghanistan which began in 2001 is the longest war in US history. With a presence of more than 13,000 NATO troops, most of which are US Army soldiers, as well as more than 25,000 contractors, this constitutes the most important ongoing military operation of Western imperialist forces. However, it is obvious that Washington is about to lose this war which is why the Trump Administration is desperate to conclude the peace negotiations with the Taliban … and run. The RCIT continues to call for the defeat of the imperialist forces and for the support of the legitimate popular resistance – including the armed guerilla struggle – against the occupation forces and their proxies (i.e. the so-called Afghan “government”). At the same time, revolutionaries oppose the reactionary program and ideology of the Taliban which currently constitute the dominant force among the guerilla movement. The task of Afghan socialists is to combine resistance against the occupation with an independent program fighting for a workers' and poor peasants' republic as part of a region-wide socialist federation.


28.          While Afghanistan is the longest occupation war, Syria is home of one of the longest revolutionary civil wars in recent past. The Syrian workers and peasants are fighting for the overthrow of the Assad tyranny since March 2011. The regime could only survive because of two factors: a) its extraordinary barbarous repression which has resulted in the murder of at least 600,000 people and the displacement of half of the population; b) the massive military intervention of Russian imperialism which possesses one of the most powerful military in the world as well as the notorious militias directed by Iran’s Mullah regime. As a result, the liberation forces have been pushed back to the Northwestern region of Idlib where they continue to heroically resist against the tyranny and its imperialist backers. It is of utmost importance that socialist, democratic and Muslim organizations around the world rally in support of the Syrian Revolution. The RCIT continues to support the liberation struggle without lending any political support to the petty-bourgeois nationalist and Islamist forces which are leading theses struggles.


29.          The so-called “Peace” Plan of the Trump Administration reflects another major attempt of U.S. imperialism and the Zionist Apartheid state of Israel to steal even more parts of Palestinian land as it legitimizes the formal annexation of 30% of the West Bank. In addition it is a plan to completely colonialize Palestinian people and to disarm its resistance. Furthermore, this plan is intended to serve the strategic goal of U.S. and Israeli imperialism to overcome the isolation of the Zionist state in the region and to create a close alliance with major Sunni Arab states (in particular Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt). However, the outrage of the Palestinian people and the Arab masses in the region against this “Steal of the Century” creates enormous difficulties for the counter-revolutionary plan of Trump-Netanyahu. This is reflected in the official rejection of it by the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the European Union and the UN secretary general. As Israel will try to utilize Trump’s initiative to implement its annexation plans, despite such widespread opposition, it is highly likely that this will result in major confrontations and uprisings – including a possible new Intifada. [69] Protests in Gaza and the West Bank have already started and are likely to accelerate in the next months. The continuation of this development is furthermore fueled by the revolutionary uprisings in various countries as well as by the looming world recession. Even in reactionary times, the Palestinian people have not stopped their resistance. Now that we face such revolutionary developments on a global scale it is only a matter of time before our Palestinian brothers and sisters start the Third Intifada.


30.          In Libya the dark forces of the Arab counter-revolution continue their attempts to smash the last gains of the Libyan Revolution which overthrew the capitalist dictatorship of Gaddafi. Clearly, no one should have any illusions in the GNA government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj which is based in Tripoli. It is a weak bourgeois government which hopes to find the blessing of the imperialist powers and to make deals with their monopolies. However, as it is based on the support of various popular militias which emerged with the revolution in 2011, it is definitely the minor evil compared the reactionary forces led by the former Gaddafi colonel and ex-CIA agent General Haftar. Haftars forces assemble the remnants of Gaddafi’s state apparatus, ultra-reactionary militias like the Madkhali-Salafis and it receives unlimited support by Egypt’s military dictatorship of General Sisi, by the absolutist monarchies of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as well as by Russian and French imperialism. In contrast, the GNA government receives effective material support only from Turkey (plus some diplomatic support from imperialist Italy). A victory of Haftar would represent an “Egyptian scenario”, i.e. a complete liquidation of all gains of the revolution. Hence, revolutionaries support the resistance against these dark forces of the Arab counter-revolution.


31.          The aggression of U.S. imperialism against Iran – most recently exemplified in the killing of the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and the brutal economic sanctions against the whole country – has dramatically accelerated in the past weeks and provokes the risk of a full-scale war in the near future. It reflects the cul-de-sac of U.S. imperialism which tries to avert the loss of past hegemony in the region via military adventures. The call of Iraq’s parliament for the expulsion of all American troops from Iraqi soil is another political blow for Washington’s position. On the other hand, the Trump Administration is prepared to do everything in order to avoid defeat at the Presidential elections in November and to keep U.S. influence in the region. Hence, it is possible that it might start a war against Iran. Another reactionary project is the plan to split Iraq and to create a “Sunni Arab” de-facto state in the province Anbar which would be controlled by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and which would be home for U.S. military bases. [70] The RCIT calls activists – in the Middle East as well as globally – to take a consistent revolutionary, anti-imperialist and democratic stand which takes the complex realities into account. It is necessary to support the struggle to drive the U.S. forces out of Iraq and the whole Middle East. Revolutionaries must oppose all imperialist sanctions against Iran. In any military conflict between the US and its allies against Iran resp. pro-Iranian forces, revolutionaries must call for the military defeat of the imperialists and for the military victory of their opponents. At the same time revolutionaries must support the struggle of the Iranian people against the Mullah regime. Likewise, they have to continue supporting the demands of the Syrian and Iraqi people for the expulsion of the Iranian forces. [71]


32.          The most important military intervention of European imperialism – apart from Afghanistan – takes place in West Africa. This intervention – called Operation Barkhane (and more recently “Coalition for the Sahel”) – is led by France which contributes the most significant contingent with more than 4,700 troops. In addition to smaller contingents from other European states, this operation also includes troops from Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Mauritania (the so-called “G5 states”). Under the figleaf of the “war on terror”, the real purpose of this intervention is to secure the political and economic interests of French imperialism and other Great Powers in the region and to keep the local ruling classes in power. In addition, the campaign shall stop refugees crossing the Mediterranean Sea and entering Europe. As a result, wide-spread popular resistance against the imperialist intervention has emerged in the last years – from demonstrations on the streets to armed guerilla struggle. The RCIT continues to support the resistance in order to defeat and expel the occupants. It is the task of the workers and migrant organizations in Europe to rally for the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of the imperialist forces and to show their solidarity with the African resistance. [72]


33.          Another important trouble spot of the imperialist military intervention in Africa is Somalia. Due to its crucial strategic location on the Horn of Africa along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (which links the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean) many states have sent troops and naval forces to the region. According to official figures from the U.S. AFRICOM, there are currently about 500 U.S. elite troops in Somalia (the real number is probably higher). It also claims to have killed more than 800 people in 110 strikes since April 2017. [73] In addition, the Great Powers support the military occupation of large parts of Somalia since 2007 by about 20,000 troops of the so-called African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). This occupation is met by fierce resistance. The RCIT calls for the expulsion of all occupation forces and the closure of all their military bases. We consider the popular insurgency against these occupation forces as legitimate without lending any political support to its leading force, the petty-bourgeois Islamist Al-Shabaab.


34.          The super-exploitation of the semi-colonial countries by the imperialist corporations and the capitalism caused climate change inevitable increase the misery in the countries of the South. As a result, millions and millions of people are forced to flee their homelands. Wherever possible they try to reach the rich islands, i.e. the imperialist metropolises, where the living conditions are more tolerable. Prominent examples for this are the Caravana migrantes centroamericanos, the caravans of Central American migrants who try to reach the U.S., as well as the constant attempts of migrants from Africa as well as the Middle East to reach Western Europe via the Balkans or the Mediterranean Sea. Unsurprisingly, the ruling classes in the imperialist countries try to convert their borders into fortresses against the poor. The RCIT continues to call for an organized solidarity movement of the international workers and popular organizations with the migrants. We denounce the policy of imperialist fortress and call for open borders. [74]


35.          Finally, one must also draw attention to the reactionary intervention of U.S. imperialism in Latin American countries. Such attempts are most obvious in Venezuela where the Trump Administration has supported for some time the reactionary coup attempt of the right-wing forces around Gaido. In such efforts the U.S. has got the backing of various right-wing governments in Latin America as well as of the European Union. However, on the other hand, the bourgeois-bonapartist popular front government of Maduro has received, until now, substantial aid from Russian and Chinese imperialism. As the RCIT has explained in past statements, revolutionaries need to defend Venezuela against the aggression of U.S. imperialism as well as against its reactionary henchman Gaido. However, at the same time, it is essential to build an independent workers party in order to defend the interests of the proletarian and popular masses against the Boliburguesía and to prepare the replacement of the pseudo-socialist Chavista regime by an authentic workers and popular government. [75] Another example for the U.S. interference was Washington’s backing of the right-wing coup in Bolivia. Here, too, revolutionaries have to call for a united front against the putschists and fight side by side with the tens of thousands of workers, peasants and indigenous activists against the reactionary subverters. At the same time, they have to denounce sharply the policy of capitulation of the bourgeois-populist Morales government and the leadership of MAS.






Deep domestic political crisis in the U.S.




36.          The decay of capitalism in general, and the decline of U.S. imperialism in particular, have inevitable provoked a deep domestic political crisis in the political system of the former absolute hegemon. Similar to the decaying late Roman Empire Washington’s ruling class is deeply divided. So is the middle class. These sectors adhere to different strategies and interests – both in domestic as well as foreign policy. Irrespective of all his inconsistent zigzags and never-ending buffoonish escapades, Trump represents a certain reactionary political model which is characteristic for a declining power. This policy stands for a limited withdrawal of the U.S. from a position as the absolute hegemon and, at the same time, the pursue of selective aggressive foreign policy projects (e.g. Global Trade War, Cold War against China, aggression against Iran) as well as consolidating alliances with reactionary governments in other countries (e.g. Israel, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India). Given the inherent weakness of the Trump Administration – due to the splits in the ruling class and the middle class as well as the rise of rivaling powers in the global theatre – it is forced to focus on domestic reactionary mobilizations of the middle class in order to stay in power (e.g. against immigrants, the wall at the border to Mexico, anti-abortion agenda, etc.). Trump’s strength is that there are no significant forces in the Republican Party which stand for a qualitative different policy.


37.          Other sectors of the ruling class – politically represented by the “moderate” wing in the Democratic Party (Biden, Clinton, and Obama) – oppose the aggressive domestic and foreign policy of Trump and the illusionary hope for a return to the “good old days” without the maniac in the White House. They most likely have the backing of the majority of the American bourgeoisie. However, they face two crucial problems:


a) The relation of forces in world politics has dramatically changed in the last decade. Other Great Powers (most importantly China and Russia) have so much increased their strength that they will not accept (and cannot be forced to accept) any continuation of American dominance. Hence, any future U.S. President must inevitable engage in aggressive foreign policy against the increasing number of adversaries.


b) Given the decay of the living conditions of the American working class, and increasingly also of significant sectors of the middle class, it becomes more and more difficult for the traditional forces of the political establishment to win elections and to keep domestic peace.


38.          It is the increasing popular hope for a radical progressive change and the resulting resentment against the traditional forces of the political establishment (currently mostly represented by Presidential contender of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden) which are the key reasons for the dramatic rise of Bernie Sanders (and to a certain degree also of Elisabeth Warren). No doubt, Sanders leads a faction of a party which represents sectors of an imperialist ruling class. His support for punitive tariffs against China demonstrates that he is an imperialist politician. [76] However, it would be wrong to ignore the progressive potential of his base of young supporters – many of them are associated with the Democratic Socialists of America which membership grew rapidly in the last years. They are attracted to Sanders self-proclaimed “socialism” which, despite being in fact a version of left-populist reformism, represents a certain break of a taboo in the U.S. The RCIT continues to consider it as impermissible for revolutionaries to support the Sanders campaign in the primary election in the Democratic Party (as for example Socialist Alternative from the “ISA/CWI Majority” is doing). However, it is equally important to relate in agitation and tactics to the Sanders supporters in order to win them for joint struggles against reactionary attacks and, most importantly, for the struggle to build an independent Workers Party. Such tactics should include a call to the supporters of Sanders to demand from their leader a break with the Democratic Party and to stand as an independent candidate. Naturally, revolutionaries need to warn that any illusions in Sanders as a “socialist fighter” would be misplaced. However, it is evident that such tactics could improve the conditions to break sectors of the workers movement, migrant and Black organizations from the Democratic Party away and to win them for building an independent Labor Party.


39.          It is nearly inevitable that the U.S. Presidential elections will result in a major political polarization with potential long-term consequences. If Sanders wins the primary elections, it is likely that the Biden/Clinton/Obama faction will boycott to support him. It is not excluded that they will launch a rivaling, independent candidature resulting in a split of the Democratic Party. This would have far-reaching consequences not only for the Democratic Party. It could also create new conditions for the creation of a, probably reformist, Labor Party. It is likely that the electoral result will be highly contentious. If Trump wins, progressive forces will (rightly) point out the manifold efforts of Republican governors to discourage black, migrant and poor voters from participating in the elections. If Sanders win, a significant sector of the ruling class and the reactionary middle class will declare civil war against the “godless socialist”. If someone like Biden wins, the Trumpian maniacs will also denounce the elections as “rigged” and start a reactionary offensive. In other words, the U.S. elections are likely to provoke massive domestic ruptures and confrontations and could even result in the opening of a revolutionary crisis.


40.          In such a situation revolutionaries need to advocate a program of intransigent struggle for social and democratic rights. Demands for full rights of black and Latino people, for open borders for migrants, against the sexist and racist right-wing forces and against the imperialist foreign policy will play a prominent role. Most importantly, socialists need to agitate for the creation of an independent Workers Party for which they shall advocate a revolutionary transitional program.






Crisis of Leadership and the Task of Building a Revolutionary World Party




41.          The opening of a pre-revolutionary world situation, the global wave of class struggles and the prevailing dominance of Stalinist, reformist, populist, nationalist and Islamist forces in the mass organizations are a painful reminder to the crisis of revolutionary leadership. The centrists who are stumbling with bandaged eyes into the roller coaster of class struggle are neither helpful in overcoming this crisis. This is why the RCIT has repeatedly emphasized in the past years the urgency that authentic revolutionaries around the world enter a process of serious discussion and collaboration in order to converge and hopefully unite. [77] We consider this as crucial for advancing the building or a Revolutionary World Party. For this purpose we have published an Open Letter and hope that this will result in the formation of a joint bloc of revolutionary organization to impel this process. (See this Open Letter below in the Appendix)








Open Letter: The Time Has Come!


The global wave of workers and popular struggles demonstrate the urgent need for revolutionaries to unite in order to overcome the historic crisis of leadership!


An Open Letter from the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 19.01.2020




We are living in a historic time full of class struggles and popular uprisings in which the ruling class tries to keep power by launching vicious reactionary attacks. Even bourgeois observers admit the pre-revolutionary dynamic of the current world political stage as they compare the present times with revolutionary periods in history like 1848 or 1968.


These developments do not come as a surprise to Marxists. The RCIT has explained repeatedly that a historic period has opened in 2008 characterized by a comprehensive crisis of the whole capitalist system. The decay of this system has provoked not only another Great Recession beginning just now – it also threatens the very existence of humanity with the dramatic climate crisis. Against the background of capitalist decay, the rivalry between the imperialist Great Powers (U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan) inevitable accelerates. This provokes militarism and a terrifying arms-race which will ultimately provoke the danger of World War III. Furthermore, the decay of the capitalist system pushes the ruling classes to intensify their brutal attacks on the social and democratic gains of the popular masses. The inevitable resistance against this onslaught is answered by the bourgeoisie by a rampant turn towards authoritarian regimes or outright military dictatorships. Furthermore, they encourage reactionary forces spreading hatred against women as well as national and religious minorities (e.g. Islamophobia).


The vanguard of the workers and popular masses do not lack determination and courage to fight against the attacks. From Chile to Iraq, from Bolivia to Catalunya, from Lebanon to Hong Kong and from France to India – millions of workers, oppressed and youth are rising up against reactionary regimes which are trampling democratic rights and social gains. In Syria, the heroic popular masses are still continuing the struggle against the tyranny of Assad and the Russian-Iranian occupation – after nearly nine years of civil war with hundreds of thousands of martyrs! In addition, a new Intifada can begin in Palestine as well as in Kashmir at any moment with far-reaching consequences for their whole regions.


No, the masses do not lack readiness to fight for their future. What they lack is a leadership which is up to the challenges of the struggle, in other words, they lack a revolutionary leadership. It is one of the most deplorable facts of the current world situation that the revolutionary forces are weak and dispersed and often lack a clear programmatic fundament.


How can we overcome this deficit? Such a revolutionary leadership will not arise spontaneously in the struggles. Nor will it emerge as a result of a self-critical process of renewal of hardened Stalinists and reformists who are not ashamed to offer their services to the rulers in Beijing, Moscow or Brussels or who kiss the feet of serial killers like Assad and General Sisi. A new revolutionary leadership can only be the result of collective efforts of hundreds and thousands of activists, of organizations which join forces on the basis of a common program and strategy for the current period of struggle. It is only via such conscious steps to build a New International that revolutionaries can effectively fight against the treacherous reformist leaderships in parties and trade unions which serve sectors of the ruling class or one or the other imperialist power.


The RCIT has always stated that building such a Revolutionary World Party is the most important task to which we dedicate our limited forces. (For the RCIT’s program see the links at the end of this document.) However, there can be no doubt that such a great task demands the joint efforts of all revolutionaries. Hence, the RCIT appeals to revolutionary organizations and activists around the world to unite with us in jointly building such a New International with sections in each country! It is only via such an instrument that the vanguard of the workers and oppressed can remove the obstacles of the reformist traitors and centrist confusionists and open the road towards the international socialist revolution and workers and popular governments.


Comrades, it is high time to move from words to deeds! To those, who agree with us and our programmatic perspectives, we propose energetic efforts towards fusion of forces. To those, who see a lot of agreements but also some important differences, we propose to start a process of serious discussion and collaboration. If we don’t have full agreement now, we should form a bloc in order to intensify and organize such a process of rapprochement. Such a bloc should jointly confront the major turns in world politics and intervene in the global wave of class struggles. Such an approach was conducted by Lenin within the Zimmerwald Movement after 1914. It seems highly relevant for the current period as it could again advance the construction of a Revolutionary International together with new generations of fighters who are on the forefront of the global liberation struggles. Every authentic organization should be fully aware of its historic responsibility in a period like the current one. Comrades, no time must be lost to start such a process! The time to act is now!


Concretely, we propose to revolutionary organizations and activists to constitute a joint bloc to build a revolutionary leadership on the basis of the following principles.


1.) Unconditional support for all class struggles and popular uprisings against neoliberal governments and authoritarian capitalist regimes (e.g. Chile, Ecuador, Haiti, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran, Hong Kong, India, France)! Solidarity with the popular struggle to bring down the Assad dictatorship and the Russian-Iranian occupiers! Down with reactionary coup d'états like in Bolivia!


2) Unconditional support for all popular struggles against national oppression and foreign occupation (e.g. Palestine, Kashmir, Syria, Afghanistan, Catalunya, East Turkestan, Chechnya)!


3) Down with sanctions and military aggression by Great Powers resp. their proxies (e.g. Iran, Venezuela, North Korea Mali, Somalia)!


4) No support for any Great Power in East and West! Down with the trade wars, arms race and proxy wars! The main enemy is at home! Against U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan – for international unity of the workers and oppressed!


5) Since revolutionary forces are currently weak and fragmented, just workers and popular struggles usually take place under reformist, nationalist, populist or Islamist leaderships. Revolutionaries oppose any sectarian approach but advocate the most energetic participation in such mass struggles. However, while this will include various forms of practical agreements and putting demands on such forces, this must be combined with constant warning of their shortcomings and a consistent advocacy for the formation of an independent Workers’ Party as well as for the socialist program for a workers and popular government.


The RCIT calls upon all organizations and activists which broadly agree with these five principles to enter into a dialogue. This could open a process of discussion, collaborations, meetings and conferences focusing on concrete steps to form a bloc and to work towards the formation of a New International.


Comrades, Brothers and Sisters! Let us live up to the historic tasks ahead of us! There is no justification for any routine, national-centeredness and complacency! The time has come to act now and to act decisively!


Unity – Struggle – Victory!




International Secretariat of the RCIT




* * * * *




The RCIT has published numerous books, pamphlets and statements outlining our analysis and programmatic perspectives. They are all available on our website In particular we refer to the RCIT‘s program – the “Manifesto for Revolutionary Liberation” ( – as well as our Six Points for a Platform of Revolutionary Unity Today (






[1]              The RCIT has published in the past months extensive documents on the fundamental global political and economic developments as well as numerous statements about the most important world events. We will refer to several of these in these theses at the appropriate place.

[2]              For a discussion of our understanding of the current historic period see e.g. chapter 14 in Michael Pröbsting: The Great Robbery of the South. Continuity and Changes in the Super-Exploitation of the Semi-Colonial World by Monopoly Capital Consequences for the Marxist Theory of Imperialism, 2013,

[3]              For a more detailed understanding of the political and economic developments in the past years we refer readers, among others, to the annually published World Perspectives documents of the RCIT: World Perspectives 2019: Heading Towards a Volcanic Political Eruption. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, 2 March 2019,; Michael Pröbsting: World Perspectives 2018: A World Pregnant with Wars and Popular Uprisings. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, RCIT Books, Vienna 2018,; RCIT: World Perspectives 2017: The Struggle against the Reactionary Offensive in the Era of Trumpism, 18 December 2016,; RCIT: World Perspectives 2016: Advancing Counterrevolution and Acceleration of Class Contradictions Mark the Opening of a New Political Phase, 23 January 2016,; RCIT: Perspectives for the Class Struggle in Light of the Deepening Crisis in the Imperialist World Economy and Politics, 11 January 2015,; RCIT: Escalation of Inner-Imperialist Rivalry Marks the Opening of a New Phase of World Politics. Theses on Recent Major Developments in the World Situation Adopted by the RCIT’s International Executive Committee, April 2014, in: Revolutionary Communism (English-language Journal of the RCIT) No. 22,; RCIT: Aggravation of Contradictions, Deepening of Crisis of Leadership. Theses on Recent Major Developments in the World Situation Adopted by the RCIT’s International Executive Committee, 9.9.2013, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 15,; RCIT: The World Situation and the Tasks of the Bolshevik-Communists. Theses of the International Executive Committee of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency, March 2013, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 8,

[4]              V. I. Lenin: The Collapse of the Second International (1915), in: LCW 21, pp. 213-214

[5]              For an overview and a characterization of these events see, in addition the relevant statements on the individual countries, Michael Pröbsting: Are We Nearing a New “68 Moment”? A massive upsurge of global class struggle in the midst of a dramatic shift in the world situation 22 October 2019,

[6]              See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: Another Great Recession of the Capitalist World Economy Has Begun. The economic crisis is an important factor in the current dramatic shift in the world situation, 19 October 2019,

[7]              See on this e.g. the numerous RCIT’s documents on the Global Trade War which have been collected at a special sub-page on our website:; for a more fundamental analysis of the Great Power rivalry we refer to our book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, January 2019,

[8]              See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: The Gang Leaders of Western Counterrevolution Are Faltering. Some observations on an interesting historic moment in the world situation, 25 September 2019,

[9]              See on this e.g. RCIT: Revolutionary Change to End Climate Change! Only expropriation of the capitalist corporations opens the road towards the end of climate change, 20 September 2019,; see also Nina Gunić: Japan: Horror without End in Fukushima. The nuclear scandal in Japan shows that capitalism endangers our future, September 2013,

[10]           World Economic Forum: The Global Risks Report 2020, 15th Edition, p. 10

[11]           For example, we noted in our book on the World Perspectives 2018: One could say that we are in a pre-phase of capitalist breakdown, i.e. we are before a phase of catastrophic events like major wars, economic collapse and revolutionary explosions. (…) In summary, the present world situation is characterized by an increasing polarization and instability. It is pregnant with huge possibilities as well as dangers. The multitude of factors and the intertwining of conflicting forces exclude the possibility of a concrete prognosis. But the general tendency of development is absolutely clear: the old world order is breaking down and we are heading towards both devastating regional wars as well as (pre-)revolutionary waves of popular uprisings. This puts an enormous responsibility on the shoulders of all activists fighting against imperialism and capitalist exploitation!” (Theses 16 and 17; Michael Pröbsting: World Perspectives 2018: A World Pregnant with Wars and Popular Uprisings, RCIT Books, And in our last World Perspectives 2019 document we wrote: “In conclusion, all elements of the world situation point to global political and economic earthquakes ahead. Such convulsions will result in a major transformation of the world political situation. The developing Great Recession will destabilize the social fabric in all countries and accelerate the assault of each ruling class against the exploited classes. They will try to rob from the workers and oppressed even more than they have done already in preceding decades. This process will inevitably include increasing attacks on democratic rights and a tendency towards the creation of authoritarian regimes. The Great Powers will intensify their rivalry and so will a number of regional powers. In other words, the war danger will dramatically accelerate. The counter-revolutionary offensive of the ruling class has provoked and will continue to provoke mass struggles and revolutionary upheavals. In short, a phase full of military tensions and saber-rattling, class struggles, counter-revolutionary attacks, and revolutionary explosions lies ahead of us. We are heading towards a volcanic political eruption.” (Thesis 40; RCIT: World Perspectives 2019: Heading Towards a Volcanic Political Eruption. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, 2 March 2019,

[12]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Iraq: Victory to the Popular Insurrection against the Government of Abdel Mahdi! Build Popular Councils! For a Workers and Poor Peasants Government! 04 October 2019,; ISL: The Revolution in Iraq Continues, 12 November 2019,; Yossi Schwartz: On the Background of the Popular Uprising of the Iraqi People, 04.10.2019,

[13]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Iran: Long Live the Popular Uprising against the Mullah Regime! Unite with the popular insurrections in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria etc. to a single Intifada! Down with the US sanctions against Iran! 18 November 2019,

[14]           The RCIT has published a number of booklets, statements, and articles on the Syrian Revolution that can be accessed on a special sub-section of this website: Our latest statement is this: Defend Idlib! Defeat Assad and the Russian-Iranian Occupiers! An emergency call for international solidarity with the Syrian people suffering from the barbarous onslaught by Assad and Putin! 27 December 2019,

[15]           See on this e.g. ISL: The Revolution in Lebanon as Part of the International Uprising, 29 October 2019,; Yossi Schwartz: Lebanon: A Revolutionary Situation,

[16]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Libya: Defend Tripoli! Defeat Haftar! For Popular Militias to organize an independent struggle against the counterrevolution! 9 April 2019,

[17]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Yemen: Another Humiliating Blow for the Saudi Aggressors! Yemeni popular resistance eliminates three pro-Saudi military brigades, 02.10.2019,

[18]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Egypt: Bring Down the Tyrant Sisi! Spontaneous mass protests shatter the military dictatorship of General Sisi, 23.09.2019,

[19]           The RCIT has published a number of booklets, statements, and articles on the liberation struggle of the Palestinian people which can be accessed on our website: Our latest statement is this: ISL: The Israeli Government Plays With Fire, 12 November 2019, We also refer to the recently published book of Yossi Schwartz: Palestine and Zionism. The History of Oppression of the Palestinian People. A Critical Account of the Myths of Zionism, RCIT Books, April 2019,

[20]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Algeria and Sudan: Two Important Victories and a Warning. No trust in the army command and the old elite! Continue the Revolution!, 11 April 2019,; Algeria: Bouteflika Retreats! Now Let Us Defeat His System! Organize Committees of Action! For a General Strike and Popular Insurrection to bring down the regime! For a Workers and Poor Peasants Government! 12 March 2019,; Algeria: Victory to the Popular Insurgency against Bouteflika and his System! 9 March 2019,

[21]           See on this e.g. RCIT: India: Down with CAB! Solidarity with the uprising of the Assamese people! 14 December 2019,

[22]           See on this e.g. RCIT: China: Solidarity with the General Strike in Hong Kong! For an international solidarity movement as the Stalinist-Capitalist regime in Beijing prepares a brutal crackdown! 01 August 2019,; China: Long Live the Popular Uprising in Hong Kong! After protestors storm the parliament: general strike against the extradition bill and the Lam Administration! 03 July 2019,; China: Mass Protests against Reactionary “Extradition Law” in Hong Kong. For an indefinite general strike to kill the bill and to bring down the Administration of Carrie Lam! 18 June 2019,

[23]           See on this e.g. RCIT: India: Defend the Kashmiri People against Modi’s “Israel-Style” Attack! India’s ultra-chauvinist BJP government abolishes decades-old autonomy rights of Muslim-majority province, 6 August 2019,; India: Another Orgy of Hindutva Chauvinism, 11 November 2019,; Michael Pröbsting: The Kashmir Question and the Indian Left Today. Marxism, Stalinism and centrism on the national liberation struggle of the Kashmiri people (Pamphlet), 26 September 2019,; Michael Pröbsting: India: A Prison House of Nations and Lower Castes (On the Reasons for Modi’s Coup in Kashmir). Essay on the social and national contradictions of Indian capitalism and the rise of Hindutva chauvinism, 16 August 2019,; Michael Pröbsting: Revolutionaries and the Slogan of “Azadi Kashmir”. Should Marxists advocate the independence of Kashmir? 13 September 2019,; We have collected the RCIT’s statements and articles on Kashmir in a special sub-section on our website:

[24]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Afghanistan: A Successful Strike against the US Occupation. Major Attack by the Afghan Resistance against a High-Level Meeting of Afghan and U.S. Generals in Kandahar, 19.10.2018,

[25]           See on this e.g. ALS: El pueblo chileno se levanta. ¡Por la huelga general indefinida hasta lograr echar abajo el estado de emergencia y derrocar el gobierno de Piñera! 23.10.2019,

[26]           See on this e.g. RCIT and PRT (Costa Rica): Bolivia: Defeat the Right-Wing Coup! Build democratic popular assemblies and self-defense committees! For a broad anti-coup united front! But no political confidence in Morales! 12 November 2019,

[27]           See e.g. RCIT: Ecuador: For a Popular Insurrection to Bring Down the Lenin Moreno Regime! For a workers, indigenous, peasant and popular government! 12 October 2019,; Joint statement of the RCIT and the PRT (Costa Rica): Ecuador: For an Indefinite General Strike against the Neoliberal Austerity Pack! Build democratic popular assemblies to defeat the government of Moreno – servant of the IMF! For a workers, indigenous, peasant and popular government! 06 October 2019,; PRT (Costa Rica): ECUADOR: DERROCAR A MORENO Y EXPULSAR AL FMI, 14.10.2019,

[28]           See on this e.g. Tomás Andino Mencía: Del auge al ocaso de la dictadura de “JOH”, 18 julio, 2019,

[29]           See on this e.g. Nicaragua: International Solidarity with the Popular Uprising against the Ortega-Murillo Regime! Joint Statement of the RCIT, Colectivo Rebelión (México), Grupo Interdisciplinario de Participación Inclusiva (México), 10 August 2018,; ALS: ¡Viva Nicaragua Insurrecta! ¡Por el derrocamiento de Ortega y Murillo por la fuerza organizada del pueblo nicaragüense y su juventud combativa! 21.5.2018, 

[30]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Sudan: Fight Back against the Generals with a General Strike! International solidarity with the Sudanese people! 04 June 2019,; Yossi Schwartz: Sudan: Down with the Military Dictatorship! 03.06.2019,; RCIT: Sudan: Bring Down the Regime of Omar al-Bashir! Organize Committees of Action! For a General Strike and Popular Insurrection to bring down the Regime! For a Workers and Poor Peasants Government! 28 December 2018,

[31]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Somalia: Drive Out the AMISOM and Western Occupation Forces! Daring Guerrilla Attack against U.S. Army Base and EU Military Convoy, 30 September 2019,

[32]           See on this e.g. RCIT: France: For an Indefinite General Strike in All Sectors! Stop the neoliberal pension “reform” and bring down the Macron government! 12 December 2019,

[33]           For the RCIT’s analysis of Catalonia’s struggle for independence, we refer readers to numerous documents which are collected in a special sub-page on the RCIT’s website: Our latest statement is this: Spanish State: Freedom for Catalan Political Prisoners! 15 October 2019,

[34]           Verisk Maplecroft: Political Risk Outlook 2020,

[35]           See on this the RCIT‘s program “Manifesto for Revolutionary Liberation”,

[36]           We note in passing that a team of IMF economists has published an extensive study about the forecasts of recession in the past decades. Their findings are damning for bourgeois economists as they conclude that analyses of forecast accuracy show that economists “are particularly good at missing recessions” and that they, once a recession has started, often “miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over.” (Zidong An, João Tovar Jalles, and Prakash Loungani: How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? IMF Working Paper 18/39, March 2018, p. 1)

[37]           Shrutee Sarkar, Hari Kishan: Global economy snapback to prove elusive despite market joy: Reuters polls, January 24, 2020 /

[38]           Phillip Inman: IMF boss says global economy risks return of Great Depression, 17.01.2020,

[39]           J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI, 2.1.2020, p. 1

[40]           Stephen Roach: The world economy is on the precipice, and don’t look to trade growth to cushion a fall, 28 January 2020,

[41]           Mary Callahan Erdoes: Eye on the Market Outlook 2020, J.P. Morgan, p. 1

[42]           CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis: CPB World Trade Monitor November 2019, 24.1.2020, p. 3 and 5

[43]           European Business Cycle Indicators 4th Quarter 2019, Technical Paper 037, January 2020, p. 21

[44]           FRB: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release, 17.01.2020, p. 7

[45]           We have regularly analyzed the development of the global economy. See on this the above mentioned RCIT’s annual documents on the World Perspectives; see also Michael Pröbsting: The Next Looming Great Recession. Observations on the Latest Stock Market Slump and the Structural Crisis of the Capitalist World Economy, 12 October 2018,

[46]           For the first column (1970-1996) see OECD Productivity Statistics (database),, February 2016; for the other columns see OECD Productivity Statistics (database),, March 2019.

[47]           The Conference Board Total Economy Database™ Summary Tables (March 2018), p. 5

[48]           Miguel Faria-e-Castro and Asha Bharadwaj: Corporate Debt Since the Great Recession, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, August 13, 2019,

[49]           Cary Springfield: How Much of a Concern Is China’s Debt Problem? International Banker, April 29, 2019

[50]           RCIT: The Revolutionary Communist Manifesto (2012), p. 12,

[51]           See e.g. chapter II in RCIT: World Perspectives 2016: Advancing Counterrevolution and Acceleration of Class Contradictions Mark the Opening of a New Political Phase, 23 January 2016,

[52]           United Nations: Climate change in Asia and the Pacific. What’s at stake? November 28, 2019,

[53]           See on this e.g. Enddy Ziyera (Correspondent of the RCIT in Zimbabwe): Zimbabwe: The Cyclone Idai and the Clueless Government, 25 March 2019,

[54]           See on this Tim Radford: Shock outlook for local weather, 9 October 2013,

[55]           McKinsey Global Institute: Climate risk and response. Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts, January 2020, p. 23

[56]           Cormac Mullen and Yakob Peterseil: A $1.5 Trillion Wipeout and More: Virus Fallout Across Assets, Bloomberg, 28 January 2020,

[57]           Al Jazeera: By the numbers: Economic effects of China coronavirus, 2020-01-28

[58]           Hyonhee Shin, Sangmi Cha: South Koreans call in petition for Chinese to be barred over virus, January 28, 2020 /

[59]           For the RCIT’s analysis of the 2019 Corona Virus pandemia and the programmatic alternative see our statement: 2019 Corona Virus: Oppose the Global Wave of Chauvinist Hysteria! Workers and oppressed: Do not trust the ruling class and its media! 5.2.2020,; Almedina Gunić: The chauvinist campaign behind the “Wuhan Coronavirus” hysteria & the revolutionary answer, 2.2.2020,; 2019 Corona Virus: No to the Anti-Chinese Chauvinism in South Korea! Joint Statement of the Revolutionary Communists (RCIT Section in South Korea) and the International Bureau of the RCIT, 6.2.2020,; Almedina Gunic: 2019-nCoV and the Virus of Chauvinism. A comparison with measles and the reactionary Anti-Vaxx campaigners, 6.2.2020,

[60]           On the RCIT’s analysis of the Great Power rivalry and China’s and Russia’s rise as emerging imperialist powers see the literature mentioned in the special sub-section on our website: In particular we refer to the above mentioned book by Michael Pröbsting Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. Concerning China, we refer readers in particular to Michael Pröbsting: The China-India Conflict: Its Causes and Consequences. What are the background and the nature of the tensions between China and India in the Sikkim border region? What should be the tactical conclusions for Socialists and Activists of the Liberation Movements? 18 August 2017, Revolutionary Communism No. 71,; Michael Pröbsting: The China Question and the Marxist Theory of Imperialism, December 2014,; Michael Pröbsting: China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, Concerning Russia, we refer readers in particular to Michael Pröbsting: Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism, August 2014,; Michael Pröbsting: Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18 March 2014, Special Issue of Revolutionary Communism No. 21 (March 2014),

[61]           For our assessment of the so-called “Phase One” Deal we refer to Michael Pröbsting: A Temporary Truce … to Prepare for another War. On the Meaning of the “Phase One” Deal for the U.S.-China Cold War, 17 January 2020,

[62]           European Commission: European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2019, Institutional Paper 115, November 2019, p. 13

[63]           See on this e.g. Finbarr Bermingham: US-China tech war to be ‘defining issue of this century’, despite signing of phase one trade deal, 17 Jan, 2020

[64]           J.L. Schoff and A.Ito: Competing with China on Technology and Innovation, 10 October 2019, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, p. 2,

[65]           See on this e.g. David P. Goldman: Did the US just concede defeat in China tech war? Washington abandons long-expected rules to tighten controls on export of components to telecom giant Huawei, 2020-01-27

[66]           STRATFOR: 2020 Annual Forecast, 6 January 2020,

[67]           Eurasia Group: Top Risks 2020, p. 8

[68]           On this issue we refer, in addition the RCIT literature mentioned above, to our Theses on Revolutionary Defeatism in Imperialist States, 8 September 2018,

[69]           See on this e.g. Yossi Schwartz: Trump’s “Peace” Plan: Only a Successful Intifada Will End the Crooked Deal of the Century, 05.02.2020,; Adam Smith: Israel / Occupied Palestine: Trump's "Peace" Plan, 29 January 2019,

[70]           See on this e.g. David Hearst: Ruling amid ruins: The plot to break up Iraq, 23 January 2020; Suadad al-Salhy: US seeking to carve out Sunni state as its influence in Iraq wanes, 23 January 2020

[71]           See on the confrontations between the US and Iran the following RCIT statements: The U.S. Aggression against Iran and Revolutionary Tactics. Defend Iran against any imperialist aggression! But no political support for the reactionary Mullah Regime in Teheran! Continue the popular liberation struggles of the Syrian, Iraqi, Yemeni and Iranian people!, 06 January 2020,; Yossi Schwartz: Iraq: Down with U.S. Imperialism, 31.12.2019,; Michael Pröbsting: What did the latest Near-War between the U.S. and Iran Reveal? Some Notes on the Inner Contradictions of the US Policy in the Middle East, 11 January 2020,; Michael Pröbsting: Iranian General Soleimani: Neither Anti-Imperialist nor Pro-People, 14 January 2020,; Aramco Attack: Defeat the US/Saudi/Israeli Warmongers! Defend Iran against any imperialist aggression! But no political support for the reactionary Mullah Regime in Teheran! 16 September 2019,; Strait of Hormuz: Escalating Tensions between the US/UK and Iran. Drive the Great Powers out of the Middle East! But no political support for the reactionary Mullah Regime in Teheran! 22 July 2019,; Iran: Down with Trump’s Sanctions and Military Threats! But no political support for the reactionary Mullah Regime in Teheran! 11 May 2019,; Warmongering in the Middle East: Down with all Imperialist Great Powers and Capitalist Dictatorships! 13 May 2018,

[72]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Expel French Imperialism from West Africa! Macron and his G5 Lackeys plan to intensify their colonialist “Operation Barkhane”, 15 January 2020,

[73]           At least four dead in Mogadishu car bomb, 8 January, 2020

[74]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Migrant Caravan in Central America: Let them all in! Internationalist Solidarity against the Criminalization of Immigrants from Central America! 21.01.2020,

[75]           See on this e.g.

[76]           See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: The Next Round of Escalation in the Global Trade War. After negotiations ended without results, the U.S. imposes new tariffs on Chinese imports and Beijing retaliates, 13 May 2019,

[77]           See on this e.g. RCIT: Six Points for a Platform of Revolutionary Unity Today, February 2018,; see also: Michael Pröbsting: Our Next Steps. A Proposal for Building a New Revolutionary International. A contribution to a highly important debate among Marxists, 11 February 2019,