A new study shows the dramatic decline of Ukraine’s population. Dmitry Medvedev, a leading figure of the Putin regime, propagates the corresponding ideology.

By Michael Pröbsting, Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 10 June 2023, www.thecommunists.net

 

The Ukrainian Institute for the Future (UIF) has recently published a new report – “New Economic Policy of Ukraine” – which shows the dramatic consequences of the war for the Ukrainian people. While the focus of the study is not of much interest – it outlines a neoliberal strategy for deregulation and long-term growth – it provides the public with interesting figures about the development of the country’s demography. ^[1]

According to this study, Ukraine’s population has declined to 29 million people since the beginning of the war. In 1991, when the Ukraine became an independent state, its population was 52 million. Before the beginning of the war, the population had already declined – according to different sources – to between 38 and 42 million people. And since the 24 February 2022, another 8.6 million Ukrainians fled the country. (See also Table 1 in the Appendix)

This means that the Ukraine’s population has dropped – in the years between 1991 and 2023 – by 45%, i.e. by nearly the half! (See also Table 2 in the Appendix)

Of these 29 million citizens, only 9.1-9.5 million people are employed. Another 2.5-2.9 million are unemployed, 8 million are pensioners and 4.8 million are children under the age of 15 years.

Long-term prospects are bleak given “an alarmingly low fertility rate that has fallen below 1.0 since the war started.”

Add to this the gigantic destruction of the country’s infrastructure and environment – an ongoing process with unpredictable consequences for the population in the coming years and decades!

 

Danger of annihilation

 

It is obvious that the Ukraine is a country in danger of annihilation. It has lost nearly half of its population in the past three decades. Only a relatively small share of the people is employed, and the fertility rate has collapsed. Its industry has been largely destroyed – first by the consequences of neoliberal reforms and now by the ongoing war of aggression by Putin. Its agriculture and the environmental conditions in their entirety are deteriorating dramatically.

As we did show in a recently published pamphlet about the Ukraine, this process has basically two reasons. [2] First, the economic and social decline has been caused by the consequences of capitalist restoration which started in 1991. In the following decades, numerous enterprises had been closed and social security massively cut. As a result, many millions of Ukrainians left the country and became migrants in Europe. Life expectation dropped and so did the fertility rate.

As a result, the Ukraine has effectively become a capitalist semi-colony since 1991. This means that it is a country which has been oppressed and super-exploited – mainly by Western European and Russian monopolies and Great Powers. [3]

This process of annihilation accelerated dramatically since Putin’s invasion 15 months ago. This is a war aimed at making the Ukraine a colony of Russian imperialism against the background of the Great Power rivalry. [4]

As we have explained in our documents, the RCIT characterizes this conflict as one with a dual nature – at least until now. ^[5] Hence, socialists unreservedly condemn the reactionary invasion of Putin and support the Ukraine’s war of national defence against Russian imperialism. At the same time, we recognize that this war is combined with the accelerating rivalry between NATO and Russia. In this conflict, we support neither of the two imperialist camps. We have summarised our approach in the slogan: Defend the Ukraine against Putin’s invasion! Beware of NATO and Zelensky – transform the resistance against the Russian occupation into a Popular War! Against Russian and against NATO imperialism! ^[6]

 

The ideology of annihilation

 

This horrible process of annihilation is neither a “fateful” nor an unavoidable development. It is the result of decisions made by the ruling class. In the case of the capitalist restoration, it is a process driven forward by imperialist monopolies and states – both Western as well as Eastern – in alliance with the local oligarchs. In the case of the war, it is a process driven, first and foremost, by the interests of the Putin regime to enlarge the imperialist “Russkij Mir”.

In fact, the Putin regime deliberately tries to destroy the Ukraine which is considers as an illegitimate creature in itself. As we pointed out in other works, the Kremlin denies the existence of an independent Ukrainian nation with the right of national self-determination. Putin himself stated such reactionary views in his notorious essay “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” published in July 2021. [7]

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation and chairman of the ruling “United Russia” party, has repeated such Great Russian chauvinist ideology in several statements. In early April this year, he published an article titled "Why Ukraine will cease to exist? Because nobody needs it." It is a hotchpotch of bizarre claims and "Russkij Mir" chauvinism, all aimed at claiming that the Ukraine has no right to exist and, hence, that it deserves that its population is annihilated and expelled. [8]

In a more recent statement, Medvedev further develops such ideas of annihilating the Ukraine. “Now is the time to say how Ukraine will disappear.” [9]

The deputy chairman of the Security Council outlines three possible scenarios for the destruction of the Ukraine. In the first scenario, “western Ukraine comes under the control of Poland and other states, the east becomes part of Russia. At the same time, the territory wedged between them continues to consider itself Ukraine, demands NATO membership, etc. (…) According to the second scenario, Ukraine disappears after the completion of the “Special Military Operation” in the process of its division between Russia and a number of EU states. (…) Finally, Medvedev sees the third option as the transition of western lands under the influence of European countries, and the center and east become Russia through self-determination.”

He concludes his article by stating that “there are simply no other options.”

At this place, it is not necessary to discuss the differences between these three scenarios contrived behind the walls of the Kremlin. The essential issue is what they have in common. And this is the explicit goal of Russian imperialism to annihilate the Ukraine as an independent country, to divide it and to occupy large parts of its territory.

Hence, it is not surprising that the Russian army tries to destroy as much infrastructure as possible and to expel as many people as possible. For these Great Russian chauvinists, “Ukraine” does not exist, and its population only deserves to live as servants of “Russkij Mir”.

Bizarrely, the Putinists and semi-Putinistas among the so-called global left support Russian imperialism claiming that the Ukraine is a “Nazi-led” state. But tell me, whose theory and practice resembles more fascism – the Ukraine which is defending its right to exist or Russia which aims to annihilate its neighbouring country?!

The Ukraine can only be free if the workers and popular masses drive out the Russian occupiers, break with Western imperialism and transform the country into an independent socialist Ukraine! It is the foremost duty of the international workers and popular movement to support their Ukrainian brothers and sisters in this struggle!

 

Appendix

 

Table 1. Population of the Ukraine, in million, 1991-2023 ^[10]

1991      2005      2020      2023

52          47          38-42     29

 

Table 2. Decline of Ukraine’s Population, 1991-2023 (1991=100) ^[11]

1991                    2005                    2020                    2023

100                      90.3                     73.1-80.7             55.8