The Real Estate Bubble in Capitalist China

Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic make global investors tremble and for good reasons

 

by Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 6 October 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

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The Great Depression of the capitalist world economy, which began in autumn 2019, has also affected China. This is hardly surprising since China constitutes a key component of global capitalism as it is the leading nation in world manufacturing (with a share of 28.7% of global output). [1]

 

As we noted in recent articles, the world economy is heading towards a second slump and China plays a central role in this development. [2] In the present article we will deal with one of the areas where China’s crisis is evolving – its real estate sector. (For a more extensive analysis of China’s capitalism we refer readers to other works of the RCIT. [3])

 

In recent weeks, several real estate giants – e.g. Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic – have failed to make interest payments. Evergrande alone has unpaid bills totaling more than $300 billion – an “amount [which] is equivalent to 2 per cent of China’s GDP and probably one of the biggest debt piles in the world.[4] In fact, these real estate giants are all tottering close to bankruptcy. As a result, their shares at the stock market are plunging. Evergrande’s share price dropped by 80% since the beginning of the year.

 

This development reflects that the financial sector with its characteristic elements of bubble and speculation has become a key element of China’s capitalist economy. It also shows that a significant proportion of its spectacular growth in the past decades had a fictious character. And it also demonstrates that – particularly in the past decade since the Great Recession in 2008/09 – China’s growth was based on a dramatic rise of debts.

 

 

 

Growing Debts

 

 

 

China’s real estate sector has grown in the past decades by extraordinary proportions. In the period from 1995 to 2019, real estate investment – calculated as a share of economic output (GDP) – rose from 5% to over 13%. This is a much higher share than the U.S. ever had in recent history! At the peak of the real estate bubble in the U.S. – before the spectacular wave of bankruptcies which began with Lehman Brothers in 2008 – the figure was 7%. [5]

 

China’s massive real estate expansion was largely financed by increasing debts. Many people – largely from the urban middle class – bought new homes by incurring debts. As a result, China’s household leverage ratio (the ratio of household debt to GDP) has risen rapidly from 18% in 2008 to 60% at the end of 2018. Today, outstanding mortgage debt makes up over 70% of total household debt. [6]

 

In many cases, new homes have been bought by people from the middle class or the bourgeoisie in order to sell them later for profit. In other words, the growing real estate sector was not only financed by growing debts but its whole purpose has become not so much to build new living space for people but rather to make profit via speculation. In 2008, “only” 30% of new homebuyers did already possess one or more dwellings. Ten years later, this share had increased to 87%. In other words, nearly 9 out of 10 new homebuyers did so not in order to find a place for living but rather to get another dwelling either for renting or for selling to someone else.

 

To understand this phenomenon, one needs to know that there is hardly any place in the world where urban housing – relative to income – is more expansive than in China’s cities. If we take the Home Price-to-Rent Ratios, four of the five most expensive cities in the world are Chinese! (Shenzhen, Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai). Shenzhen ratio is two times as large as that of Tokyo and London and four times as large as New York and San Francisco!

 

If China’s real estate giants collapse, it will have massive consequences for the whole economy. In 2016, real estate and construction industries combined accounted for around 29% of China’s GDP. These sectors have also been crucial for job creation, making up around 20% of urban non-private employment. According to Bloomberg, “about 41% of the banking system assets were either directly or indirectly associated with the property sector by the end.[7]

 

Given the global weight of China’s economy, capitalist speculators and financial institutions all over the world fear the consequences of a default of the real estate market. France’s BNP Paribas – the largest bank in the Eurozone – published a note to investors: “We estimate less than USD50bn of Evergrande’s USD300bn outstanding debt is financed by bank loans. ... Suggesting the Chinese banking sector will have a sufficient buffer to absorb potential bad debts. (…) Over the past week, investors have become increasingly worried about the contagion risks to supply chains (commodities), social stability (construction workers, homebuyers), and credit stress (de-risking on Chinese high yield bonds), as the central government has been relatively muted on the Evergrande situation.[8]

 

 

 

Soft Landing?

 

 

 

Given the huge weight of the real estate sector, it is quite possible that China’s Stalinist-capitalist regime will do everything it can in order to ensure a “soft landing”. A first sign for such a development is the fact that China’s central bank injected about $123 billion of liquidity into the system in the last two weeks. [9]

 

If the regime does not intervene massively, large sectors of the capitalists and the middle class as well as workers in related industries will suffer drastic consequences. Needless to say that such a scenario would have explosive consequences in the already tense political situation. Li Guangman, a prominent retired newspaper editor with close ties to the regime, recently warned that without proper intervention, “China’s economy and society will be set on the crater of the volcano where all may be ignited any time.” [10]

 

However, even if the regime intervenes and bails out the capitalists, this would also have long-term negative consequences for the economy as it would result in a further massive rise of public indebtedness. By the 3rd quarter of 2020, China’s total debt as a share of GDP had increased to 288% - nearly double the share of 2008 (about 150%). [11] In its latest China report, the World Bank warned: “At current market interest rates, China’s large debt stock implies a significant aggregate interest burden, exceeding 10 percent of GDP. It is estimated that more than one-third of new credit to the non-financial sector is used to service the existing debt.[12]

 

The increasing speculative activities are an unmistakable sign that China’s capitalists find it more and more difficult to generate high profit rates in the productive sector. In fact, China’s profit rate has constantly declined since the mid-1990s (See the Figure in the Appendix)

 

 

 

Some Conclusions

 

 

 

Let us draw a few conclusions.

 

1.            First, it is obvious that China is close to another recession. As we did already point out in our recent article on the second slump of the world economy, its industrial production has declined in the past months, it faces power cuts and its real estate sector – the fastest growing sector of its economy in the last decade – is close to bankruptcy. The Stalinist-capitalist regime must massively intervene in the economy in order to avoid a deep recession. However, additional debt will result in higher interest payments and lower growth in the next years.

 

2.            These developments will have dramatic political consequences. Already in the last period, Beijing tightened political control. Its brutal intervention against the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong [13] as well as the draconic Lockdown policy were result of the desire of the Stalinist-capitalist regime to retain undisputed domination. [14] Likewise, the regime clamps down on all forms on “unpatriotic” behavior and “extravagant” public personalities (including pop stars, social media influencer and “effeminate” so-called “sissy boys”). In order to deflect public attention from the domestic crisis, the Stalinist-capitalist regime wipes up chauvinism and threatens war against Taiwan. In the last days, it set one record after the other by sending an increasing number of fighter jets over the island. Global Times – the English-language mouthpiece of the regime – threatened in a recent editorial with the telling title “Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real”. “If the US and the DPP authorities do not take the initiative to reverse the current situation, the Chinese mainland's military punishment for "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces will eventually be triggered. Time will prove that this warning is not just a verbal threat.[15] In short, China – and the same is true for other imperialist Great Powers like the U.S. – could be increasingly tempted to provoke an external crisis as all major capitalist economies face the danger of a second slump. [16]

 

3.            The huge proportions of the speculative real estate sectors, the declining profit rate, the desire of the regime to help the corporations, all this demonstrates once again what the RCIT and other Marxists have explained since many years: China’s state and economy were, are and will be capitalist (as long as the working class does not overthrow the regime). Only Stalinist fools and pseudo-Trotskyists – like the so-called Spartacist tradition or forces allied with the Argentinean PO – can imagine that the country with the largest number of billionaires and the largest number of top capitalist corporations in the world could be a … “non-capitalist” or even a “socialist” state!

 

4.            All this is also vindicated by the well-known close relations between the “red billionaires” and the “Communist” Party. Xu Jiayin, the boss of the China Evergrande Group, is a symbol for this. He has well-known close ties with the leading group in the party. He himself admitted in a 2018 speech: “All I have and all that Evergrande Group has achieved were endowed by the party, the state and the whole society.” [17] Desmond Shum, a well-connected Chinese businessman, describes in a recently published book (“Red Roulette”) the deeply corrupted world of millionaires, billionaires and politicians. [18] Again, only those blinded by Stalinism or Semi-Stalinism can claim that this would be “socialism”!

 

5.            Finally, the nervous reactions of the global stock markets to the looming bankruptcy of Evergrande and other real estate giants reflect that China’s economy has become a powerful factor in world capitalism. Napoleon famously said “China is a sleeping giant. When she awakes, the world will tremble.” The nervous state of the global stock markets hearing the news about Evergrande and the central place of the Cold War between the Washington and Beijing in world politics fully confirm this. Still, self-proclaimed Trotskyists like the Argentina-based PTS/FT or the Brazil-based PSTU/LIT deny the imperialist character of China, claiming that Beijing would have a kind of dependent or subordinated position to the Western Great Powers. We ask these comrades: “Would a real estate bubble in Argentina or Brazil, or in Malaysia or Indonesia cause such a jittery at Wall Street, London or Frankfurt? Certainly not! But Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic do!” This demonstrates the difference between a dominant and a dominated country in the capitalist world economy, between an imperialist and a semi-colonial state! We repeat once more that it is impossible for Marxists to find a correct orientation without understanding the imperialist nature of China and without such a recognition it is impossible to take a revolutionary position in any conflict between these states, i.e. consistently opposing all of them! [19]

 

 

 

Appendix

 

China: Internal Rate of Return [20]

 


 

 

 



[1] Felix Richter: These are the top 10 manufacturing countries in the world, World Economic Forum, 25.2.2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/countries-manufacturing-trade-exports-economics/; output measured on a value-added basis in current U.S. dollars.

[2] Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/; see also these articles by our Argentinean comrades: Juan Giglio: A 13 años del Lehman Brothers y en el medio de la caída de Evergrande, 26.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/a-13-anos-del-lehman-brothers-y-en-el.html; Damián Quevedo, Evergrande, una burbuja a punto de explotar en nuestro continente, 5.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/evergrande-una-burbuja-punto-de.html

[3] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in China and its transformation into a Great Power. See on this e.g. our book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/. See also by the same author an essay published in the second edition of The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (edited by Immanuel Ness and Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; How is it possible that some Marxists still Doubt that China has Become Capitalist? (A Critique of the PTS/FT), An analysis of the capitalist character of China’s State-Owned Enterprises and its political consequences, 18 September 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Unable to See the Wood for the Trees (PTS/FT and China). Eclectic empiricism and the failure of the PTS/FT to recognize the imperialist character of China, 13 August 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/; China’s Emergence as an Imperialist Power (Article in the US journal 'New Politics'), in:  “New Politics”, Summer 2014 (Vol:XV-1, Whole #: 57)

[4] India Today: Explained: Why China’s Evergrande crisis has sent global stock markets in panic mode, 21 September 2021, https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/china-evergrande-crisis-global-stock-markets-in-panic-mode-1855467-2021-09-21

[5] The figures on China’s real estate sector, if not indicated otherwise, are taken from a highly informative research paper which has been recently published by a U.S. and a Chinese analyst from the National Bureau of Economic Research: Kenneth S. Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang: Peak China Housing, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 27697, http://www.nber.org/papers/w27697

[6] See on this also Martin Wolf: The economic threats from China’s real estate bubble, Financial Times, 5.10.2021, https://www.ft.com/content/1abd9d4b-8d94-4797-bdd7-bee0f960746a

[7] Bloomberg: China's banks downplay risks after Evergrande misses payments, 23 September 2021, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2021/09/23/chinas-banks-downplay-risks-after-evergrande-misses-payments/

[8] Quoted in Reuters: What analysts have to say about Evergrande as default risks rise, 21 September 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande-debt-idCNL4N2QN127

[9] William Pesek: Xi plots prudent response to Evergrande crisis, Asia Times, 4 October 2021, https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/xi-plots-prudent-response-to-evergrande-crisis/

[10] Quoted in Alexandra Stevenson, Michael Forsythe and Cao Li: China and Evergrande Ascended Together. Now One Is About to Fall, Sept. 28, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/business/china-evergrande-economy.html

[11] World Bank: China Economic Update, December 2020: From Recovery to Rebalancing: China’s Economy in 2021, Washington 2020, p. 28; Desmond Lachman: Is this China's Lehman Brothers moment? 21.09.2021, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/573102-is-this-chinas-lehman-brothers-moment

[12] World Bank: China Economic Update, June 2021 : Beyond the Recovery - Charting a Green and Inclusive Growth Path, Washington 2021, p. 30

[13] See on this e.g. RCIT: China / Hong Kong: The Beginning of the Counterrevolution. The new National Security Law represents a full-scale assault on democratic rights by the Stalinist-Capitalist regime! 1 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/china-hong-kong-the-beginning-of-the-counterrevolution/

[14] The RCIT has analysed the COVID-19 counterrevolution extensively since its beginning. Starting from 2 February 2020 we have published nearly 90 pamphlets, essays, articles and statements plus a book which are all compiled at a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. In particular we refer readers to the RCIT Manifesto: COVID-19: A Cover for a Major Global Counterrevolutionary Offensive. We are at a turning point in the world situation as the ruling classes provoke a war-like atmosphere in order to legitimize the build-up of chauvinist state-bonapartist regimes, 21 March 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-a-cover-for-a-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/. See also a new RCIT Manifesto: “Green Pass” & Compulsory Vaccinations: A New Stage in the COVID Counterrevolution. Down with the chauvinist-bonapartist police & surveillance state – defend democratic rights! No to health policy in the service of the capitalist monopolies – expand the public health sector under workers and popular control! 29 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/; In addition, we draw attention to our book by Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/. See also our very first article on this issue by Almedina Gunić: Coronavirus: "I am not a Virus"... but WE will be the Cure! The chauvinist campaign behind the “Wuhan Coronavirus” hysteria and the revolutionary answer, 2 February 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/wuhan-virus/; Michael Pröbsting: The Second Wave of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution. On the ruling class strategy in the current conjuncture, its inner contradictions and the perspectives of the workers and popular resistance, 20 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-second-wave-of-the-covid-19-counterrevolution/; by the same author: The Police and Surveillance State in the Post-Lockdown Phase. A global review of the ruling class’s plans of expanding the bonapartist state machinery amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 21 May 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/police-and-surveillance-state-in-post-lockdown-phase/; COVID-19: The Great Barrington Declaration is indeed Great! Numerous medical scientists protest against the reactionary lockdown policy, 11 October 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-the-great-barrington-declaration-is-indeed-great/; Michael Pröbsting: COVID-19: The Current and Historical Roots of Bourgeois Lockdown “Socialism”. Police State and Universal Basic Income are key elements of the new version of reformist “War Socialism” of 1914, 19 December 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/covid-19-the-current-and-historical-roots-of-bourgeois-lockdown-socialism/. See also a number of Spanish-language articles of our Argentinean comrades: Juan Giglio: La izquierda de la "Big Pharma", dejó de defender las libertades, 1.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/la-izquierda-de-la-big-pharma-dejo-de.html; Juan Giglio: ¿Por qué la izquierda no cuestiona las políticas de la OMS? 8.9.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/por-que-la-izquierda-no-cuestiona-las.html

[15] Global Times: Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real, Global Times Editorial, 4 October 2021, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235638.shtml

[16] The RCIT has dealt on numerous occasions with the inter-imperialist rivalry of the Great Powers. See e.g. the RCIT document: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; see also: RCIT: The Meaning of the AUKUS Pact. The U.S. escalates the inter-imperialist Cold War against China and provokes the EU, 18 September 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/; Russia Fires Warning Shots against UK Warship in the Black Sea. Down with Cold Warmongering! No support for any imperialist Great Power – neither UK, US nor Russia! 24 June 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/; see also the following two pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: “A Really Good Quarrel”. US-China Alaska Meeting: The Inter-Imperialist Cold War Continues, 23 March 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/; for more works on this issue see these sub-pages: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

[17] Quoted in Alexandra Stevenson, Michael Forsythe and Cao Li: China and Evergrande Ascended Together

[18] Desmond Shum: Red Roulette. An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today's China, Simon & Schuster, New York 2021

[19] For our programmatic approach on inter-imperialist conflicts see e.g. RCIT: Theses on Revolutionary Defeatism in Imperialist States, 8 September 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/theses-on-revolutionary-defeatism-in-imperialist-states/; see also chapters XVI to XX in the above-mentioned book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry.

[20] Michael Roberts: China at a turning point? 5 October 2021, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2021/10/05/china-at-a-turning-point/

 

La burbuja inmobiliaria en la China capitalista

Evergrande, Fantasia y Sinic hacen temblar a los inversores globales y por buenas razones

 

por Michael Pröbsting, Secretario Internacional de la Corriente Comunista Revolucionaria Internacional (CCRI), 6 de octubre de 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

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La Gran Depresión de la economía mundial capitalista, que comenzó en otoño de 2019, también ha afectado a China. Esto no es sorprendente, ya que China constituye un componente clave del capitalismo global, ya que es la nación líder en la fabricación mundial (con una participación del 28,7% de la producción mundial). [1]

 

Como señalamos en artículos recientes, la economía mundial se encamina hacia una segunda recesión y China juega un papel central en este desarrollo. [2] En el presente artículo nos ocuparemos de una de las áreas donde la crisis de China está evolucionando: su sector inmobiliario. (Para un análisis más extenso del capitalismo de China, remitimos a los lectores a otras obras de la CCRI. [3])

 

En las últimas semanas, varios gigantes inmobiliarios, por ejemplo, Evergrande, Fantasia y Sinic, no han cumplido con los pagos de intereses. Evergrande por sí solo tiene facturas impagas por un total de más de $300 mil millones, una “cantidad [que] equivale al 2 por ciento del PIB de China y probablemente una de las mayores pilas de deuda del mundo.” [4] De hecho, estos gigantes inmobiliarios se están tambaleando al borde de la bancarrota. Como resultado, sus acciones en el mercado de valores se están hundiendo. El precio de la acción de Evergrande cayó un 80% desde principios de año.

 

Este desarrollo refleja que el sector financiero con sus elementos característicos de burbuja y especulación se ha convertido en un elemento clave de la economía capitalista de China. También muestra que una proporción significativa de su espectacular crecimiento en las últimas décadas tuvo un carácter ficticio. Y también demuestra que, particularmente en la última década desde la Gran Recesión en 2008/09, el crecimiento de China se basó en un aumento dramático de las deudas.

 

 

 

Deudas crecientes

 

 

 

El sector inmobiliario de China ha crecido en las últimas décadas en proporciones extraordinarias. En el período de 1995 a 2019, la inversión inmobiliaria, calculada como porcentaje de la producción económica (PIB), aumentó del 5% a más del 13%. ¡Esta es una proporción mucho más alta que la que tuvo Estados Unidos en la historia reciente! En el pico de la burbuja inmobiliaria en Estados Unidos, antes de la espectacular ola de quiebras que comenzó con Lehman Brothers en 2008, la cifra era del 7%. [5]

 

La enorme expansión inmobiliaria de China se financió en gran medida mediante el aumento de las deudas. Muchas personas, en su mayoría de la clase media urbana, compraron casas nuevas incurriendo en deudas. Como resultado, el coeficiente de apalancamiento de los hogares de China (la relación entre la deuda de los hogares y el PIB) ha aumentado rápidamente del 18% en 2008 al 60% a fines de 2018. En la actualidad, la deuda hipotecaria pendiente representa más del 70% de la deuda total de los hogares. [6]

 

En muchos casos, las casas nuevas han sido compradas por personas de la clase media o la burguesía para luego venderlas con fines de lucro. En otras palabras, el creciente sector inmobiliario no solo se financió con deudas crecientes, sino que todo su propósito no se ha convertido tanto en construir un nuevo espacio vital para las personas sino en obtener ganancias a través de la especulación. En 2008, “solo” el 30% de los nuevos compradores de vivienda ya poseía una o más viviendas. Diez años después, esta participación había aumentado al 87%. En otras palabras, casi 9 de cada 10 nuevos compradores de vivienda no lo hicieron para encontrar un lugar donde vivir, sino para conseguir otra vivienda, ya sea para alquilarla o venderla a otra persona.

 

Para comprender este fenómeno, es necesario saber que casi no hay ningún lugar en el mundo donde la vivienda urbana, en relación con los ingresos, sea más expansiva que en las ciudades de China. Si tomamos la relación precio-alquiler de la vivienda, ¡cuatro de las cinco ciudades más caras del mundo son chinas! (Shenzhen, Beijing, Hong Kong y Shanghai). La proporción de Shenzhen es dos veces mayor que la de Tokio y Londres y cuatro veces mayor que la de Nueva York y San Francisco.

 

Si los gigantes inmobiliarios de China colapsan, tendrá consecuencias masivas para toda la economía. En 2016, las industrias inmobiliaria y de la construcción juntas representaron alrededor del 29% del PIB de China. Estos sectores también han sido cruciales para la creación de empleo, ya que representan alrededor del 20% del empleo urbano no privado. Según Bloomberg, “alrededor del 41% de los activos del sistema bancario estaban asociados directa o indirectamente con el sector inmobiliario al final.” [7]

 

Dado el peso global de la economía china, los especuladores capitalistas y las instituciones financieras de todo el mundo temen las consecuencias de un incumplimiento del mercado inmobiliario. BNP Paribas de Francia, el banco más grande de la zona euro, publicó una nota a los inversores: “Estimamos que menos de 50.000 millones de dólares de la deuda pendiente de 300.000 millones de dólares de Evergrande se financia con préstamos bancarios. ... Sugiere que el sector bancario chino tendrá un colchón suficiente para absorber posibles deudas incobrables. (…) Durante la semana pasada, los inversores se han preocupado cada vez más por los riesgos de contagio a las cadenas de suministro (materias primas), la estabilidad social (trabajadores de la construcción, compradores de vivienda) y el estrés crediticio (reducción del riesgo de los bonos chinos de alto rendimiento), como El gobierno ha sido relativamente silencioso sobre la situación de Evergrande.[8]

 

 

 

¿Aterrizaje suave?

 

 

 

Dado el enorme peso del sector inmobiliario, es muy posible que el régimen capitalista estalinista de China haga todo lo posible para garantizar un "aterrizaje suave". Una primera señal de tal desarrollo es el hecho de que el banco central de China inyectó alrededor de $123 mil millones de liquidez en el sistema en las últimas dos semanas. [9]

 

Si el régimen no interviene masivamente, grandes sectores de los capitalistas y la clase media, así como los trabajadores de industrias relacionadas, sufrirán consecuencias drásticas. Huelga decir que tal escenario tendría consecuencias explosivas en la ya tensa situación política. Li Guangman, un destacado editor de un periódico retirado con estrechos vínculos con el régimen, advirtió recientemente que, sin la intervención adecuada, “la economía y la sociedad de China se situarán en el cráter del volcán donde todo puede encenderse en cualquier momento”. [10]

 

Sin embargo, incluso si el régimen interviene y rescata a los capitalistas, esto también tendría consecuencias negativas a largo plazo para la economía, ya que daría lugar a un aumento masivo del endeudamiento público. Por el 3er trimestre de 2020, la deuda total de China como proporción del PIB había aumentado a 288% - casi el doble de la cuota de 2008 (150%). [11] En su último informe sobre China, el Banco Mundial advirtió: “Con las tasas de interés actuales del mercado, el gran volumen de deuda de China implica una carga de interés agregada significativa, superior al 10 por ciento del PIB. Se estima que más de un tercio del nuevo crédito al sector no financiero se utiliza para pagar la deuda existente.” [12]

 

Las crecientes actividades especulativas son una señal inequívoca de que a los capitalistas chinos les resulta cada vez más difícil generar altas tasas de beneficio en el sector productivo. De hecho, la tasa de beneficio de China ha disminuido constantemente desde mediados de la década de 1990 (consulte la figura en el apéndice).

 

 

 

Algunas conclusiones

 

 

 

Saquemos algunas conclusiones.

 

1.            Primero, es obvio que China está cerca de otra recesión. Como ya señalamos en nuestro artículo reciente sobre la segunda recesión de la economía mundial, su producción industrial ha disminuido en los últimos meses, enfrenta cortes de energía y su sector inmobiliario -el sector de más rápido crecimiento de su economía en la última década- está cerca de la quiebra. El régimen capitalista-estalinista debe intervenir masivamente en la economía para evitar una recesión profunda. Sin embargo, la deuda adicional resultará en mayores pagos de intereses y un menor crecimiento en los próximos años.

 

2.            Estos desarrollos tendrán consecuencias políticas dramáticas. Ya en el último período, Beijing reforzó el control político. Su brutal intervención contra el movimiento a favor de la democracia en Hong Kong [13], así como la draconiana política de encierro fueron resultado del deseo del régimen capitalista-estalinista de retener una dominación indiscutible. [14] Del mismo modo, el régimen toma medidas drásticas contra todas las formas de comportamiento “antipatriota” y personalidades públicas “extravagantes” (incluidas las estrellas del pop, los influencers de redes sociales y los “afeminados” que llaman “sissy boys”). Para desviar la atención pública de la crisis interna, el régimen capitalista estalinista acaba con el chovinismo y amenaza con la guerra contra Taiwán. En los últimos días, estableció un récord tras otro al enviar un número creciente de aviones de combate sobre la isla. Global Times, el portavoz en inglés del régimen, amenazó en un editorial reciente con el contundente título “Es hora de advertir a los secesionistas de Taiwán y sus fomentadores: la guerra es real”. “Si Estados Unidos y las autoridades del DPP no toman la iniciativa de revertir la situación actual, eventualmente se activará el castigo militar de China continental por las fuerzas secesionistas de la “independencia de Taiwán”. El tiempo demostrará que esta advertencia no es solo una amenaza verbal.” [15] En resumen, China, y lo mismo es cierto para otras grandes potencias imperialistas como Estados Unidos, podría verse cada vez más tentada a provocar una crisis externa, ya que todas las principales economías capitalistas enfrentan el peligro de una segunda recesión. [16]

 

3.            Las enormes proporciones de los sectores inmobiliarios especulativos, la tasa de ganancia decreciente, el deseo del régimen de ayudar a las corporaciones, todo esto demuestra una vez más lo que la CCRI y otros marxistas han explicado desde hace muchos años: el estado y la economía de China eran, son y serán capitalistas (siempre que la clase trabajadora no derroque al régimen). Solo los tontos y pseudo-trotskistas estalinistas -como la llamada tradición espartaquista o fuerzas aliadas con el PO argentino- pueden imaginar que el país con el mayor número de multimillonarios y el mayor número de grandes corporaciones capitalistas del mundo podría ser un… “¡Estado no capitalista” o incluso “socialista”!

 

4.            Todo esto también está justificado por las conocidas y estrechas relaciones entre los “multimillonarios rojos” y el Partido “Comunista”. Xu Jiayin, el jefe del Grupo Evergrande de China, es un símbolo de esto. Tiene conocidos estrechos vínculos con el grupo líder del partido. Él mismo admitió en un discurso de 2018: “Todo lo que tengo y todo lo que ha logrado el Grupo Evergrande fue dotado por el partido, el estado y toda la sociedad”. [17] Desmond Shum, un hombre de negocios chino bien conectado, describe en un libro recientemente publicado (“Red Roulette”) el mundo profundamente corrupto de millonarios, multimillonarios y políticos. [18] De nuevo, ¡sólo aquellos cegados por el estalinismo o el semiestalinismo pueden afirmar que esto sería “socialismo”!

 

5.            Por último, las reacciones nerviosas de los mercados bursátiles mundiales ante la inminente quiebra de Evergrande y otros gigantes inmobiliarios reflejan que la economía de China se ha convertido en un factor poderoso en el capitalismo mundial. Napoleón dijo la famosa frase: “China es un gigante dormido. Cuando despierte, el mundo temblará”. El estado nervioso de los mercados bursátiles mundiales al escuchar las noticias sobre Evergrande y el lugar central de la Guerra Fría entre Washington y Beijing en la política mundial lo confirma plenamente. Aun así, autoproclamados trotskistas como el PTS/FT con sede en Argentina o el PSTU/LIT con sede en Brasil niegan el carácter imperialista de China, alegando que Beijing tendría una especie de posición dependiente o subordinada a las Grandes Potencias occidentales. A estos camaradas les preguntamos: “¿Una burbuja inmobiliaria en Argentina o Brasil, o en Malasia o Indonesia causaría tanto nerviosismo en Wall Street, Londres o Frankfurt? ¡Ciertamente no! ¡Pero Evergrande, Fantasia y Sinic sí lo hacen!” ¡Esto demuestra la diferencia entre un país dominante y un país dominado en la economía mundial capitalista, entre un estado imperialista y uno semicolonial! Repetimos una vez más que es imposible para los marxistas encontrar una orientación correcta sin comprender la naturaleza imperialista de China y sin tal reconocimiento es imposible tomar una posición revolucionaria en cualquier conflicto entre estos estados, es decir, ¡oponiéndose consistentemente a todos ellos! [19]

 

 

 

Apéndice

 

 

 

China: tasa interna de retorno [20]

 

 

 

 

 



[1] Felix Richter: These are the top 10 manufacturing countries in the world, World Economic Forum, 25.2.2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/countries-manufacturing-trade-exports-economics/; producción medida sobre una base de valor agregado en dólares estadounidenses corrientes.

[2] Michael Pröbsting: Economía mundial: ¿Hacia una segunda recesión? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/#anker_1; vea también estos artículos de nuestros compañeros argentinos: Juan Giglio: A 13 años del Lehman Brothers y en el medio de la caída de Evergrande, 26.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/a-13-anos-del-lehman-brothers-y-en-el.html; Damián Quevedo, Evergrande, una burbuja a punto de explotar en nuestro continente, 5.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/evergrande-una-burbuja-punto-de.html

[3] La CCRI ha publicado numerosos documentos sobre el capitalismo en China y su transformación en una Gran Potencia. Vea en esto, por ejemplo. nuestro libro de Michael Pröbsting: Anti-imperialismo en la Era de la Rivalidad de las Grandes Potencias. Los factores detrás de la Rivalidad acelerada entre los E.U, China, Rusia, la U.E y Japón. Una crítica del análisis de la izquierda y una semblanza de la Perspectiva Marxista. RCIT Books, Viena 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/libro-anti-imperialismo-en-la-era-de-la-rivalidad-de-las-grandes-potencias/. Véase también del mismo autor un ensayo publicado en la segunda edición de The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (editado por Immanuel Ness y Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; ¿Cómo es posible que algunos marxistas sigan dudando de que China se ha vuelto capitalista? (Una crítica del PTS/FT). Un análisis del carácter capitalista de las empresas estatales de China y sus consecuencias políticas, 18 de septiembre de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/pts-ft-y-imperialismo-chino-2/; Incapaces de ver el bosque por ver los árboles. El empirismo ecléctico y la falla del PTS/FT en reconocer el carácter imperialista de China, 13 de agosto de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/pts-ft-y-imperialismo-chino/; China’s Emergence as an Imperialist Power (Article in the US journal 'New Politics'), en: “New Politics”, Summer 2014 (Vol. XV-1, Whole #: 57)

[4] India Today: Explained: Why China’s Evergrande crisis has sent global stock markets in panic mode, 21 September 2021, https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/china-evergrande-crisis-global-stock-markets-in-panic-mode-1855467-2021-09-21

[5] Las cifras sobre el sector inmobiliario de China, si no se indica lo contrario, se toman de un artículo de investigación muy informativo que ha sido publicado recientemente por un analista estadounidense y chino de la Oficina Nacional de Investigación Económica: Kenneth S. Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang: Peak China Housing, NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 27697, http://www.nber.org/papers/w27697

[6] Vea en esto también Martin Wolf: The economic threats from China’s real estate bubble, Financial Times, 5.10.2021, https://www.ft.com/content/1abd9d4b-8d94-4797-bdd7-bee0f960746a

[7] Bloomberg: China's banks downplay risks after Evergrande misses payments, 23 September 2021, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2021/09/23/chinas-banks-downplay-risks-after-evergrande-misses-payments/

[8] Quoted in Reuters: What analysts have to say about Evergrande as default risks rise, 21 September 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande-debt-idCNL4N2QN127

[9] William Pesek: Xi plots prudent response to Evergrande crisis, Asia Times, 4 October 2021, https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/xi-plots-prudent-response-to-evergrande-crisis/

[10] Citado en Alexandra Stevenson, Michael Forsythe and Cao Li: China and Evergrande Ascended Together. Now One Is About to Fall, Sept. 28, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/28/business/china-evergrande-economy.html

[11] World Bank: China Economic Update, December 2020: From Recovery to Rebalancing: China’s Economy in 2021, Washington 2020, p. 28; Desmond Lachman: Is this China's Lehman Brothers moment? 21.09.2021, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/573102-is-this-chinas-lehman-brothers-moment

[12] World Bank: China Economic Update, June 2021: Beyond the Recovery - Charting a Green and Inclusive Growth Path, Washington 2021, p. 30

[13] Vea en esto, por ejemplo, RCIT: China / Hong Kong: The Beginning of the Counterrevolution. The new National Security Law represents a full-scale assault on democratic rights by the Stalinist-Capitalist regime! 1 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/china-hong-kong-the-beginning-of-the-counterrevolution/

[14] La CCRI ha analizado ampliamente la contrarrevolución del COVID-19 desde sus inicios. A partir del 2 de febrero de 2020, hemos publicado cerca de 90 folletos, ensayos, artículos y declaraciones, además de un libro, todos recopilados en una subpágina especial: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. En particular, remitimos a los lectores al Manifiesto de la CCRI: COVID-19: Una cubierta para una gran ofensiva mundial contrarrevolucionaria. Estamos en un punto de inflexión en la situación mundial, ya que las clases dominantes provocan una atmósfera de guerra para legitimar la construcción de regímenes chovinistas bonapartistas de estado, 21 de marzo de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/covid-19-una-cubierta-para-una-gran-ofensiva-mundial-contrarrevolucionaria/. Véase también un nuevo Manifiesto de la CCRI: "Green Pass" y vacunas obligatorias: una nueva etapa en la contrarrevolución de COVID. Abajo la policía chovinista-bonapartista y el estado de vigilancia: ¡Defendamos los derechos democráticos! No a la política de salud al servicio de los monopolios capitalistas: ¡Financiar y expandir el sector de la salud pública bajo el control obrero y popular!, 29 de julio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/#anker_1. Además, llamamos la atención sobre nuestro libro de Michael Pröbsting: La Contrarrevolución del COVID-19: Qué es y Cómo Combatirla. Un análisis y una estrategia marxistas para la lucha revolucionaria, RCIT Books, abril 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/la-contrarrevoluci%C3%B3n-del-covid-19-qu%C3%A9-es-y-c%C3%B3mo-combatirla/. Vea también nuestro primer artículo sobre este tema de Almedina Gunić: Coronavirus: Coronavirus: "No soy un virus"... ¡pero seremos la cura! La campaña chauvinista detrás de la histeria "Coronavirus de Wuhan" y la respuesta revolucionaria, 02 de febrero de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/coronavirus-no-soy-un-virus-pero-seremos-la-cura/.Michael Pröbsting: The Second Wave of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution. On the ruling class strategy in the current conjuncture, its inner contradictions and the perspectives of the workers and popular resistance, 20 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-second-wave-of-the-covid-19-counterrevolution/; del mismo autor: The Police and Surveillance State in the Post-Lockdown Phase. A global review of the ruling class’s plans of expanding the bonapartist state machinery amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 21 May 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/police-and-surveillance-state-in-post-lockdown-phase/; COVID-19: The Great Barrington Declaration is indeed Great! Numerous medical scientists protest against the reactionary lockdown policy, 11 October 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-the-great-barrington-declaration-is-indeed-great/; Michael Pröbsting: COVID-19: The Current and Historical Roots of Bourgeois Lockdown “Socialism”. Police State and Universal Basic Income are key elements of the new version of reformist “War Socialism” of 1914, 19 December 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/covid-19-the-current-and-historical-roots-of-bourgeois-lockdown-socialism/. Vea también una serie de artículos en español de nuestros camaradas argentinos: Juan Giglio: La izquierda de la "Big Pharma", dejó de defender las libertades, 1.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/la-izquierda-de-la-big-pharma-dejo-de.html; Juan Giglio: ¿Por qué la izquierda no cuestiona las políticas de la OMS? 8.9.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/por-que-la-izquierda-no-cuestiona-las.html

[15] Global Times: Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real, Global Times Editorial, 4 October 2021, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235638.shtml

[16] La CCRI se ha ocupado en numerosas ocasiones de la rivalidad interimperialista de las grandes potencias. Ver p. Ej. el documento de la CCRI: Perspectivas mundiales 2021-22: Entrando en una situación global prerrevolucionaria, 22 de agosto de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/#anker_1; ver también El significado del pacto AUKUS. Estados Unidos intensifica la Guerra Fría interimperialista contra China y provoca a la UE, 18 de septiembre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/#anker_1; Rusia lanza disparos de advertencia contra un buque de guerra del Reino Unido en el Mar Negro. ¡Abajo el conato de guerra fría! Ningún apoyo para ninguna Gran Potencia imperialista, ¡ni Reino Unido, ni Estados Unidos ni Rusia!, 24 de junio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/#anker_3; véanse también los dos folletos siguientes de Michael Pröbsting: "Una pelea bastante buena". Encuentro EE.UU.-China en Alaska: Continúa la Guerra Fría Interimperialista, 23 de marzo de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/encuentro-ee-uu-china-en-alaska-continua-la-guerra-fr%C3%ADa-interimperialista/; Siervos de dos amos. El estalinismo y la nueva guerra fría entre las grandes potencias imperialistas de Oriente y Occidente, 10 de julio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/#anker_9; para obtener más trabajos sobre este tema, consulte estas subpáginas: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ y https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

[17] Citado en: Alexandra Stevenson, Michael Forsythe y Cao Li: China and Evergrande Ascended Together

[18] Desmond Shum: Red Roulette. An Insider's Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today's China, Simon & Schuster, New York 2021

[19] Para conocer nuestro enfoque programático sobre los conflictos interimperialistas, véase, p. Ej. RCIT: Theses on Revolutionary Defeatism in Imperialist States, 8 September 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/theses-on-revolutionary-defeatism-in-imperialist-states/; véanse también los capítulos XVI a XX del libro mencionado anteriormente de Michael Pröbsting: Antiimperialismo en la Era de la Rivalidad de las Grandes Potencias.

[20] Michael Roberts: China at a turning point? 5 October 2021, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2021/10/05/china-at-a-turning-point/

 

자본주의 중국에서 부동산 거품

헝다, 화양녠, 시닉이 글로벌 투자가들을 떨게 하다

 

미하엘 프뢰브스팅, 혁명적 공산주의인터내셔널 동맹 (RCIT) 국제서기, 2021 10 6, www.thecommunists.net

 

Download
KOR trans of The Real Estate Bubble in C
Adobe Acrobat Document 349.8 KB

 

 

 

 

편집 : 문서에는 그림 하나가 포함되어 있는데, 기술적인 이유로 아래의 PDF 판에서만 그림을 있다.

 

 

 

2019 가을에 시작된 자본주의 세계경제 대공황이 중국도 휘감고 있다. 중국이 세계 제조업선도국 (세계 생산량의 28.7% 차지하는)으로서 글로벌 자본주의의 핵심 구성부분을 이루고 있다는 점에서 이는 별로 놀라운 일이 아니다.[1]

 

우리가 최근 글들에서 지적했듯이, 세계경제는 (지난 2019 가을∽2020 여름의 번째 침체에 이어) 번째 침체로 치닫고 있고, 이러한 침체 돌입에 중국의 경제위기가 중심 역할을 하고 있다.[2] 글에서 우리는 중국의 위기가 가장 집약적으로 펼쳐지고 있는 분야 하나인 부동산 분야를 다룰 것이다. (중국 자본주의에 대한 보다 광범위한 분석으로는, RCIT 다른 문서들을 독자들에게 권한다.[3])

 

최근 동안 헝다그룹 (에버그란데) 비롯하여 화양녠홀딩스 (판타지아) 신리홀딩스 (시닉) 몇몇 부동산 재벌들이 (수조 대의) 이자를 지불하지 못하고 있다. 헝다 그룹만도 부채가 1 9700 위안 ( 356 )으로, “중국 GDP 2% 해당하는 액수이며 아마도 세계에서 가장 빚더미 하나일 것이다.”[4] 실제로 이들 부동산 재벌들은 모두 비틀거리며 파산 직전 상태에 있다. 결과 주식시장에서 이들 그룹의 주가는 폭락하고 있다. 헝다의 주가는 연초 이래로 80% 하락했다.

 

이러한 사태전개는 거품과 투기를 특징으로 하는 금융 부문이 중국 자본주의 경제의 핵심 요소가 되어 있는 것을 반영한다. 지난 수십 동안 금융 부문의 눈부신 성장이 상당 부분 허구적, 의제적 성격을 가지고 있었음을 보여준다. 그리고 중국의 성장이 특히 2008/09 대침체 이래 지난 10년간의 성장이 부채 급증에 바탕을 두고 있었음을 보여준다.

 

 

 

늘어나는 부채

 

 

 

중국의 부동산 부문은 지난 수십 동안 엄청난 속도와 비율로 성장했다. 1995년부터 2019년까지의 기간 동안 중국 GDP에서 부동산 투자가 점하는 비율을 보면, 1995 5%에서 2019 13.5% 증가했다. 이는 같은 기간 미국보다 훨씬 높은 비율이다! 2008 리먼 브라더스로 시작된 스펙터클한 파산 물결이 있기 , 미국 부동산 거품이 최고조에 달했을 수치는 7%였다.[5]

 

중국의 대대적인 부동산 팽창은 많은 부분 부채에 의해 자금이 조달되었다. 주로 도시 중간계급 출신의 많은 사람들이 빚을 내서 집을 구입했다. 결과 GDP 대비 가계부채 비율은 2008 18%에서 2018 60% 빠르게 증가했다. 오늘, 주택담보대출이 가계부채의 70% 이상을 차지한다.[6]

 

새로운 생활공간을 위한 주택 구입보다 투기를 통한 이윤 획득 동기가 부동산 부문 팽창의 주된 동력으로 자리 잡은 지가 이미 십년이 넘었다. 2008년에 신규 주택 구입자 가운데 이미 하나 이상의 주택을 보유하고 있는 사람은 30% 불과했다. 10 , 비율은 87% 증가했다. , 신규 주택 구입자 10 중에 거의 9명이 곳을 찾아서가 아니라 임대 용도로 또는 다른 사람에게 팔기 위해서 추가 주택을 구입한 것이다.

 

현상을 이해하기 위해서는 세계 어디에도 소득 대비 주택 구입비용이 중국 도시보다 비싼 곳은 거의 없다는 것을 알아야 한다. 주택 가격 임대료 비율을 기준으로 세계에서 가장 비싼 도시 5 4곳이 중국이다. (선전, 베이징, 홍콩, 상하이). 선전의 비율은 도쿄와 런던의 , 뉴욕과 샌프란시스코의 배다!

 

중국의 거대 부동산 기업들이 파산하면, 전체 경제에 엄청난 결과를 가져올 것이다. 2016년에 부동산과 건설업을 합치면 중국 GDP 29% 점했다. 이들 부문은 일자리 창출에도 매우 중요한데, 도시 ()농업 민간고용의 20% 담당한다. 블룸버그에 따르면, "은행권 자산의 41% 부동산 부문과 직간접적으로 연관되어 있었다."[7]

 

세계경제에서 중국 경제가 차지하는 비중을 감안할 , 세계의 자본주의 투기꾼들과 금융기관들이 부동산 시장의 채무불이행이 낳을 결과를 놓고 두려워하는 것은 당연하다. 유로존 최대 은행인 프랑스의 BNP파리바는 투자자들을 위해 다음과 같은 지라시를 냈다. “우리는 헝다의 3천억 달러 미결 부채 500 달러 가까이가 은행 대출로 조달된 것으로 추정한다... 지난 동안