A Peculiar and Explosive Combination

Notes on the current world situation

By Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 6 October 2022, www.thecommunists.net

 

The following is not a comprehensive world perspective document but rather some brief notes about, what seems to us to be, a peculiar feature of the current world situation. [1] Let us get directly to the point.

The extraordinary character of the current world situation is that it combines several crises. The capitalist world economy is facing its worst depression since the 1930s. At the same time, the global political order is in a process of decomposition. These developments go hand in hand with wars and looming political explosions. While all these processes have their own laws and dynamics, they influence each other and deepen a crisis of comprehensive political and economic character.

 

The current Great Depression and its difference to 2008/09

 

As we have analysed these individual developments in detail elsewhere, we will limit ourselves to a short summary. The capitalist world economy entered a period of Great Depression in late 2019. After a severe first slump which lasted until the second half of 2020, and a subsequent short-lived recovery, the global market began to enter a second slump at the end of 2021. This crisis process is deepening now into a kind of recession which might dwarf the notorious years of 1929-33. [2]

The following is peculiar about the current recession – if we compare it with the crisis of 2008/09. First, the monopoly bourgeoisie is in a much weaker position to counteract. It is weaker in so far as:

a) it has much smaller financial reserves given that the level of indebtedness is substantially higher than it was in 2007; global debt, for example, stood at 256% of GDP in 2020, compared with “only” 195% in 2007. [3]

b) China – the world’s second-largest economy – was in a much better position in 2008/09 with high growth rates while now it is in actual recession (e.g. China’s industrial production, by volumes, declined by -7.2% in the second quarter). [4] Hence, Beijing was able to help the world economy to avoid the worst in 2008/09 – this time it can not.

However, the even more important difference to the last recession is that this time it goes hand in hand with the most dramatic crisis of the world political order since 1945. As we explained in a number of documents, the decline of U.S. imperialism – the long-time hegemon – and of the Western powers in general, and the parallel rise of new Great Powers (most importantly China and Russia), constitutes a key feature of current historic period. [5]

Such crisis of the world political order has direct and indirect consequences for the economic development. The rivalry between the Great Powers makes a coordinated response to the recession – as it happened to a certain degree in 2008 – impossible. Just watch the desperate policy hiking of interest rates by central banks and the extreme fluctuations in the currency exchange rates currently taking place.

Worse, the escalating policy of mutual sanctions between the Western and Eastern imperialists has dramatic repercussions for the global production as well as trade as it provokes additional disruptions and dysfunctionalities in nearly all sectors – from computer chips to food and energy.

 

Heading towards a world revolutionary situation?

 

The crisis of the world political order manifests itself in wars – most importantly the Ukraine War since 24 February. [6] However, other military confrontations did also take place in the last months (e.g. the clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijan, [7] between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the revival of the Ethiopian civil war [8]); add to this threats of war (e.g. the conflict between Greece [9] and Türkiye). [10]

The acceleration of inter-imperialist rivalry and the militarisation of world politics inevitable increases the danger of a war between the Great Powers. We have seen such sabre-rattling during the latest Taiwan Strait crisis in August [11] and, more importantly, the current threats with nuclear war as a result of Russia’s humiliating defeats in the Ukraine War. [12]

It is self-explaining that even a “limited” use of nuclear weapons in one region would have devastating and long-term consequences for the world political situation as well as for the global economy. And it would, among others, provoke even more wars and civil wars.

In our view, there exists also another important difference to the last recession 2008/09. A delayed political consequence of this crisis was the process of Arab Revolution which began in early 2011 and which was mostly limited to this region. [13] This time, in contrast, the political repercussions of the Great Depression started both immediately as well as globally – the world-wide wave of popular uprisings in the second half of 2019. Other major political upheavals followed – among these the Black Live Matters uprising in the U.S. in summer 2020, [14] the #EndSARS protests in Nigeria, [15] the mass protests against the authoritarian policy of the COVID Counterrevolution, [16] the popular uprising and subsequent civil war against the military coup in Burma/Myanmar, [17] or the current uprising in Iran. [18]

It seems to us that the combination of the above-mentioned features of the world crisis will result in major political explosions not only in semi-colonial countries in the Global South but also in the centres of imperialist powers.

The humiliating defeats of the Russian army, the consequential divisions within the elite in Moscow, the mass protests in North Caucasus and other regions against the “partial mobilisation”, etc. – all this are indicators of an approaching storm which could provoke a revolutionary situation and the downfall of the Putin regime. [19]

Likewise, Europe – facing a dramatic energy crisis, a cold winter and deep social divisions – could experience mass upheavals and even revolutionary crisis. [20] The U.S. too is marked by deep social and political divisions. And the Xi regime in China could also face dramatic events given the worst economic crisis since the “Cultural Revolution” in the last 1960s, the draconic Lockdown policy (“Zero-COVID”) and the accelerating tensions with the American rival.

Add to all this the likely revolutionary explosions in various countries of the Global South.

In other words, the ruling class on all continents is sitting on an explosive volcano. Hence, there are strong indications that we are heading towards a truly world revolutionary situation.

 

On the tasks of socialists

 

Clearly, such explosive developments have important consequences for the tasks of revolutionaries. At this point we have to limit ourselves to outline these only in a few notes.

1) First and foremost, it is crucial to have a correct analysis of the world situation. This includes, among others, that socialists must recognize the class character of the Great Powers (i.e. understanding that not only the Western powers are imperialist but also China and Russia). This puts the RCIT and all authentic revolutionaries in stark contrast to the social-imperialist lackeys and semi-lackeys of Putin and Xi as well as those who are confused on this issue and refuse to take a clear position. From this follows that it is a condition sine qua non that socialists must oppose all imperialist Great Powers on the basis of the program of revolutionary defeatism. [21]

2) Likewise, one can not be a socialist without understanding what is a revolution deserving support, and what is a counterrevolution which must be combated by any means necessary. We remind, as an example, to the numerous Putinistas and abstentionists who shamefully denounced the Arab Revolution soon after its beginning as a “reactionary struggle” or “colour revolution”; or take those – like the Stalinists and Alan Woods’ IMT – who hailed the military coup of General Sisi in Egypt in July 2013. The same holds true for the Ukraine War today where many “socialists” refuse supporting the just war of national defence of the Ukrainian people (which, of course, has to be combined with intransigent opposition against Russian as well as NATO imperialism).

3) It is an axiom for revolutionaries that the workers vanguard has to utilise every crisis which has been provoked by the political, economic and military contradictions of the capitalist system in order to advance the liberation struggle of the working class and the oppressed. Lenin once noted, in the light of World War I: The essential thing is to utilise the crisis for revolutionary propaganda and to prepare for revolutionary action. [22] This is no less true today! Hence, we have nothing but contempt for those demoralised ex-Marxists – overpopulating the ranks of reformism and centrism – who whine about the burden of the revolutionary struggle and who use the looming dangers of war and barbarism as a pretext … to withdraw from the battlefield. Let’s be clear: the sharper, the more explosive the political, economic and military contradictions are between the classes, the more likely are not only wars and counterrevolutions but also – if not necessarily immediately – social explosions and revolutionary opportunities. This is what revolutionaries have to prepare for – politically and practically.

4) Revolutionaries have to combat the influence of opportunist ideologists, social-imperialist lackeys, and abstentionists from the liberation struggle, within the workers vanguard. Without pushing back such demoralising and confusing influence, it is impossible to win over the best elements of the socialist activists.

5) It is equally crucial for revolutionaries not only “to interpretate the world but also to change it” – to paraphrase the famous words of Karl Marx in his Theses on Feuerbach. This means to intervene wherever possible in mass struggles and to consolidate and deepen roots within the working class and the oppressed. Revolutionaries are condemned to become sectarians if they remain isolated from the class struggle and the masses.

6) Such intervention in the class struggle, such “fusion” with the masses, is only possible if revolutionaries are completely free of all forms of aristocratic prejudices against the “rough” masses. Experience of the past decade has demonstrated that it happens again and again that it is not necessarily the “politically educated” sectors which join mass struggles first but rather the less “educated”, less organised parts of the working class and oppressed which start popular uprisings. Authentic revolutionaries take the class struggle as it is and don’t measure it based on how it “should be” – according to pseudo-Marxist dogmas.

7) Finally, the RCIT and all authentic revolutionaries have to work towards rapprochement and, if possible, unity of different groups and organisations. There is no time for conservative routinism – this is the time for bold initiatives and courageous steps forward! Mistakes can be made but there is no reason to fear such; Marxists are not afraid of making mistakes – they only fear to be bad revolutionaries by missing opportunities in the class struggle and by refusing to learn from mistakes! However, such a regroupment process must take place on the basis of principled agreement on the main tasks of the international class struggle – rather than on abstract phrases (a la “for socialism” or “for Trotsky’s transitional program”).

We do not know, and we can not know, what the coming months and years will bring. But there is no doubt that we are living in a historic moment, in a literally sense, and that it is in such times that all political forces are tested. The RCIT has a long record of theory and practice in the class struggle on the basis of an internationalist, anti-imperialist and revolutionary program. We look forward to starting close collaboration with other socialists in order to overcome the deep crisis of leadership so that we can jointly build a Revolutionary World Party! Comrades, brothers and sisters: do not hesitate – act now, act decisively!



[1] For our latest documents on the world situation we refer to: Medina Gunić: Recession, Energy Crisis, Strengthening of the Imperialist Blocs – The World Situation will change soon enough, 23 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-situation-will-change-soon-enough/; Michael Pröbsting: World Situation: In the Midst of a Global Political Tornado. Notes on global developments characterized by the Ukraine War, inter-imperialist rivalry, global energy and food crisis as well as spontaneous mass protests, 13 April 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-situation-april-2022/.

[2] The RCIT has analysed the crisis of the capitalist world economy in much detail. The latest documents are compiled on a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-great-depression/.

[3] Vitor Gaspar, Paulo Medas, Roberto Perrelli: Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion, IMF, December 15, 2021, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/15/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion

[4] Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis: CPB World Trade Monitor July 2022 (23 September 2022), p. 5

[5] The RCIT has published a number of studies on the accelerating rivalry between the Great Powers and the emergence of China and Russia as new imperialist states. Many of these are compiled on these sub-pages on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/. In particular we want to refer to the book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/

[6] We refer readers to a special page on our website where more than 120 RCIT documents on the Ukraine War and the current NATO-Russia conflict are compiled: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/.

[7] See on this e.g. RCIT: Armenia-Azerbaijan: Down with the Reactionary War! No to chauvinist excesses! Drive Russian imperialism out of the Caucasus! 16 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-down-with-the-reactionary-war/

[8] See e.g. RCIT: Ethiopia: Down with the Reactionary Civil War! 9th November 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/ethiopia-down-with-the-reactionary-civil-war/

[9] For our analysis of Greek capitalism see the book by Michael Pröbsting: Greece: A Modern Semi-Colony. The Contradictory Development of Greek Capitalism, Its Failed Attempts to Become a Minor Imperialist Power, and Its Present Situation as an Advanced Semi-Colonial Country with Some Specific Features, November 2015, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/greece-semi-colony/

[10] For an analysis of Turkish capitalism see e.g. the pamphlet by Michael Pröbsting: Is Türkiye a (Sub-)Imperialist Power? The economic, political and military features of the Turkish state, its class character and the programmatic consequences for socialists. 25 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/is-tuerkiye-a-sub-imperialist-power/

[11] See on this RCIT: Taiwan: Pelosi Visit Might Provoke War between the U.S. and China. Down with both imperialist Great Powers, for a policy of Revolutionary Defeatism!, 1 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/taiwan-pelosi-visit-might-provoke-war-between-the-u-s-and-china/; Taiwan: Great Power Rivalry and National Question. On the conflict between U.S. and Chinese imperialism, its consequences for the crisis of the capitalist world order, on Taiwan’s national question and the program of revolutionary defeatism, 20 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/taiwan-great-power-rivalry-and-national-question/

[12] See e.g. RCIT: Threats of Nuclear War between Great Powers. On some consequences for the world situation and for socialist tactics in the defence of the Ukraine, 5 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/threats-of-nuclear-war-between-great-powers/

[13] The RCIT has published numerous documents on the Arab Revolution which can be read at: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/

[14] The RCIT has published a number of documents on the popular uprising in the U.S. which are compiled on a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/north-america/articles-on-uprising-after-murder-of-george-floyd/.

[15] See e.g. RSV: Nigeria: End SARS Memorial 2021: Keep The Movement Alive By Expanding Her Demands! 21st October, 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/nigeria-end-sars-memorial-2021/

[16] The RCIT has analyzed the COVID-19 counterrevolution extensively since its beginning. Starting from 2 February 2020 we have published about 100 documents which are compiled at a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. See also our book by Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/.

[17] The RCIT documents on the civil war in Myanmar are compiled on a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/collection-of-articles-on-the-military-coup-in-myanmar/

[19] The latest RCIT documents on these developments are: Putin Announces Colonial Annexation of Ukrainian Territories, 30 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/putin-announces-colonial-annexation-of-ukrainian-territories/; Russian Empire Escalates its Colonial War against the Ukraine. Down with the shame-“referendums” in the Russian-occupied territories! No to “mobilisation”! Defend the Ukraine - Defeat Russian imperialism!, 21 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russian-empire-escalates-its-colonial-war-against-the-ukraine/; Revolutionary Tactics in the Struggle against Putin’s Mobilisation. On some issues of the program of defeatism under the current conditions of Russia’s war against the Ukraine, 28 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/revolutionary-tactics-in-the-struggle-against-putin-s-mobilisation/

[21] For our programmatic approach on inter-imperialist conflicts see e.g. RCIT: Theses on Revolutionary Defeatism in Imperialist States, 8 September 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/theses-on-revolutionary-defeatism-in-imperialist-states/

[22] V. I. Lenin: Arguments of the Social-Patriots, in: LCW Vol. 39, p. 275, https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1916/ni-eps/argsopat.htm

Una combinación peculiar y explosiva

Notas sobre la situación mundial actual

Por Michael Pröbsting, Secretario Internacional de la Corriente Comunista Revolucionaria Internacional (CCRI), 6 de octubre de 2022, www.thecommunists.net

 

El siguiente no es un documento completo de perspectiva mundial, sino más bien algunas notas breves sobre lo que nos parece ser una característica peculiar de la situación mundial actual. [1] Vayamos directamente al grano.

El carácter extraordinario de la situación mundial actual es que combina varias crisis. La economía mundial capitalista se enfrenta a su peor depresión desde la década de 1930. Al mismo tiempo, el orden político global está en proceso de descomposición. Estos desarrollos van de la mano con guerras y explosiones políticas que se avecinan. Si bien todos estos procesos tienen sus propias leyes y dinámicas, se influyen mutuamente y profundizan una crisis de carácter político y económico integral.

 

La Gran Depresión actual y su diferencia con 2008/2009

 

Como hemos analizado estos desarrollos individuales en detalle en otro lugar, nos limitaremos a un breve resumen. La economía mundial capitalista entró en un período de Gran Depresión a fines de 2019. Después de una primera recesión severa que duró hasta la segunda mitad de 2020, y una subsiguiente recuperación de corta duración, el mercado global comenzó a entrar en una segunda recesión a fines de 2021. Este proceso de crisis se está profundizando ahora en una especie de recesión que podría empequeñecer los notorios años de 1929-1933. [2]

Lo siguiente es peculiar de la recesión actual, si la comparamos con la crisis de 2008/2009. Primero, la burguesía monopolista está en una posición mucho más débil para contrarrestar. Es más débil en la medida en que:

a) cuenta con reservas financieras mucho menores dado que el nivel de endeudamiento es sustancialmente mayor al que tenía en 2007; la deuda mundial, por ejemplo, se situó en el 256% del PIB en 2020, en comparación con “solo” el 195 % en 2007. [3]

b) China, la segunda economía más grande del mundo, estaba en una posición mucho mejor en 2008/2009 con altas tasas de crecimiento, mientras que ahora se encuentra en una recesión real (por ejemplo, la producción industrial de China, por volumen, disminuyó un -7,2 % en el segundo trimestre). [4] Por lo tanto, Beijing pudo ayudar a la economía mundial a evitar lo peor en 2008/2009; esta vez no puede.

Sin embargo, la diferencia aún más importante con la última recesión es que esta vez va de la mano con la crisis del orden político mundial más dramática desde 1945. Como explicamos en una serie de documentos, el declive del imperialismo estadounidense, la hegemonía desde hace mucho tiempo, y de las potencias occidentales en general, y el surgimiento paralelo de nuevas Grandes Potencias (principalmente China y Rusia), constituye una característica clave de período histórico actual. [5]

Tal crisis del orden político mundial tiene consecuencias directas e indirectas para el desarrollo económico. La rivalidad entre las Grandes Potencias hace imposible una respuesta coordinada a la recesión, como ocurrió en cierta medida en 2008. Solo mire la política desesperada de subir las tasas de interés por parte de los bancos centrales y las fluctuaciones extremas en las tasas de cambio de divisas que se están produciendo actualmente.

Peor aún, la creciente política de sanciones mutuas entre los imperialistas occidentales y orientales tiene repercusiones dramáticas para la producción mundial y el comercio, ya que provoca interrupciones y disfunciones adicionales en casi todos los sectores, desde los chips de computadora hasta los alimentos y la energía.

 

¿Hacia una situación revolucionaria mundial?

 

La crisis del orden político mundial se manifiesta en guerras, la más importante en la Guerra de Ucrania desde el 24 de febrero. [6] Sin embargo, también se produjeron otros enfrentamientos militares en los últimos meses (por ejemplo, los enfrentamientos entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán, [7] entre Tayikistán y Kirguistán, el resurgimiento de la guerra civil etíope [8]); agregue a esto amenazas de guerra (por ejemplo, el conflicto entre Grecia [9] y Turquía). [10]

La aceleración de la rivalidad interimperialista y la militarización de la política mundial aumentan inevitablemente el peligro de una guerra entre las Grandes Potencias. Hemos visto este ruido de sables durante la última crisis del Estrecho de Taiwán en agosto [11] y, lo que es más importante, las amenazas actuales de guerra nuclear como resultado de las humillantes derrotas de Rusia en la guerra de Ucrania. [12]

Se explica por sí mismo que incluso un uso “limitado” de armas nucleares en una región tendría consecuencias devastadoras ya largo plazo para la situación política mundial, así como para la economía mundial. Y provocaría, entre otras cosas, aún más guerras y guerras civiles.

En nuestra opinión, existe también otra diferencia importante con la última recesión 2008/2009. Una consecuencia política tardía de esta crisis fue el proceso de Revolución Árabe que comenzó a principios de 2011 y que se limitó principalmente a esta región. [13] Esta vez, por el contrario, las repercusiones políticas de la Gran Depresión comenzaron tanto de forma inmediata como a nivel mundial: la ola mundial de levantamientos populares en la segunda mitad de 2019. Siguieron otros trastornos políticos importantes, entre ellos Black Live Levantamiento de asuntos en los EE. UU. en el verano de 2020, [14] las protestas #EndSARS en Nigeria, [15] las protestas masivas contra la política autoritaria de la Contrarrevolución COVID, [16] el levantamiento popular y posterior guerra civil contra el golpe militar en Birmania/Myanmar, [17] o el actual levantamiento en Irán. [18]

Nos parece que la combinación de las características antes mencionadas de la crisis mundial dará como resultado grandes explosiones políticas no solo en los países semicoloniales del Sur Global sino también en los centros de los poderes imperialistas.

Las derrotas humillantes del ejército ruso, las consiguientes divisiones dentro de la élite en Moscú, las protestas masivas en el norte del Cáucaso y otras regiones contra la “movilización parcial”, etc., todo esto son indicadores de una tormenta que se avecina que podría provocar una situación revolucionaria. y la caída del régimen de Putin. [19]

Asimismo, Europa, que enfrenta una dramática crisis energética, un invierno frío y profundas divisiones sociales, podría experimentar levantamientos masivos e incluso crisis revolucionarias. [20] Estados Unidos también está marcado por profundas divisiones sociales y políticas. Y el régimen de Xi en China también podría enfrentar eventos dramáticos dada la peor crisis económica desde la "Revolución Cultural" en la última década de 1960, la política draconiana de encierro ("Zero-COVID") y las tensiones aceleradas con el rival estadounidense.

Agregue a todo esto las probables explosiones revolucionarias en varios países del Sur Global.

En otras palabras, la clase dominante en todos los continentes está sentada sobre un volcán explosivo. Por lo tanto, hay fuertes indicios de que nos dirigimos hacia una verdadera situación revolucionaria mundial.

 

Sobre las tareas de los socialistas

 

Claramente, tales desarrollos explosivos tienen consecuencias importantes para las tareas de los revolucionarios. Llegados a este punto, tenemos que limitarnos a esbozarlos sólo en unas pocas notas.

1) En primer lugar, es crucial tener un análisis correcto de la situación mundial. Esto incluye, entre otros, que los socialistas deben reconocer el carácter de clase de las Grandes Potencias (es decir, entender que no sólo las potencias occidentales son imperialistas sino también China y Rusia). Esto pone a la CCRI y a todos los auténticos revolucionarios en marcado contraste con los lacayos y semilacayos socialimperialistas de Putin y Xi, así como con aquellos que están confundidos sobre este tema y se niegan a tomar una posición clara. De aquí se sigue que es condición sine qua non que los socialistas se opongan a todas las grandes potencias imperialistas sobre la base del programa del derrotismo revolucionario. [21]

2) Asimismo, no se puede ser socialista sin comprender qué es una revolución que merece apoyo, y qué es una contrarrevolución que debe ser combatida por todos los medios necesarios. Recordamos, como ejemplo, a los numerosos putinistas y abstencionistas que denunciaron vergonzosamente la Revolución Árabe poco después de su comienzo como una “lucha reaccionaria” o “revolución de color”; o tomemos a aquellos, como los estalinistas y la CMI de Alan Woods, que saludaron el golpe militar del general Sisi en Egipto en julio de 2013. Lo mismo es válido para la Guerra de Ucrania hoy, donde muchos "socialistas" se niegan a apoyar la guerra justa de defensa nacional del pueblo ucraniano (que, por supuesto, debe combinarse con una oposición intransigente contra el imperialismo ruso y la OTAN).

3) Es un axioma para los revolucionarios que la vanguardia obrera tiene que utilizar todas las crisis provocadas por las contradicciones políticas, económicas y militares del sistema capitalista para avanzar en la lucha de liberación de la clase obrera y los oprimidos. Lenin señaló una vez, a la luz de la Primera Guerra Mundial: “Lo esencial es utilizar la crisis para hacer propaganda revolucionaria y preparar acciones revolucionarias”. [22] ¡Esto no es menos cierto hoy! Por lo tanto, no tenemos más que desprecio por esos exmarxistas desmoralizados -sobrepoblando las filas del reformismo y el centrismo- que se quejan del lastre de la lucha revolucionaria y que usan los peligros inminentes de la guerra y la barbarie como pretexto... para retirarse del campo de batalla. Seamos claros: cuanto más agudas, más explosivas son las contradicciones políticas, económicas y militares entre las clases, más probables son no solo las guerras y las contrarrevoluciones, sino también, si no necesariamente de inmediato, las explosiones sociales y las oportunidades revolucionarias. Esto es para lo que tienen que prepararse los revolucionarios, política y prácticamente.

4) Los revolucionarios tienen que combatir la influencia de ideólogos oportunistas, lacayos socialimperialistas y abstencionistas de la lucha de liberación, dentro de la vanguardia obrera. Sin hacer retroceder una influencia tan desmoralizadora y confusa, es imposible ganarse a los mejores elementos de los activistas socialistas.

5) Es igualmente crucial para los revolucionarios no sólo “interpretar el mundo sino también cambiarlo” – parafraseando las famosas palabras de Karl Marx en sus Tesis sobre Feuerbach. Esto significa intervenir donde sea posible en las luchas de masas y consolidar y profundizar las raíces dentro de la clase trabajadora y los oprimidos. Los revolucionarios están condenados a convertirse en sectarios si permanecen aislados de la lucha de clases y de las masas.

6) Tal intervención en la lucha de clases, tal “fusión” con las masas, sólo es posible si los revolucionarios están completamente libres de toda forma de prejuicio aristocrático contra las masas “rudas”. La experiencia de la última década ha demostrado que sucede una y otra vez que no son necesariamente los sectores “políticamente educados” los que se unen primero a las luchas de masas, sino las partes menos “cultas”, menos organizadas de la clase trabajadora y los oprimidos que inician los levantamientos populares. Los auténticos revolucionarios toman la lucha de clases tal como es y no la miden en base a cómo “debería ser” – según dogmas pseudomarxistas.

7) Finalmente, la CCRI y todos los auténticos revolucionarios tienen que trabajar por el acercamiento y, si es posible, la unidad de los diferentes grupos y organizaciones. No hay tiempo para el rutinismo conservador: ¡este es el momento para iniciativas audaces y pasos valientes hacia adelante! Se pueden cometer errores, pero no hay motivo para temerlos; Los marxistas no tienen miedo de cometer errores, ¡solo temen ser malos revolucionarios al perder oportunidades en la lucha de clases y al negarse a aprender de los errores! Sin embargo, tal proceso de reagrupamiento debe tener lugar sobre la base de un acuerdo de principios sobre las principales tareas de la lucha de clases internacional, en lugar de frases abstractas (al estilo “por el socialismo” o “por el programa de transición de Trotsky”).

No sabemos, y no podemos saber, lo que traerán los próximos meses y años. Pero no hay duda de que estamos viviendo un momento histórico, en un sentido literal, y que es en esos momentos cuando se ponen a prueba todas las fuerzas políticas. La CCRI tiene un largo historial de teoría y práctica en la lucha de clases sobre la base de un programa internacionalista, antiimperialista y revolucionario. ¡Esperamos comenzar una estrecha colaboración con otros socialistas para superar la profunda crisis de liderazgo para que podamos construir juntos un Partido Revolucionario Mundial! Camaradas, hermanos y hermanas: ¡no vacilen, actúen ahora, actúen con decisión!

 



[1] Para nuestros últimos documentos sobre la situación mundial nos referimos a: Medina Gunić: Recession, Energy Crisis, Strengthening of the Imperialist Blocs – The World Situation will change soon enough, 23 de agosto de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-situation-will-change-soon-enough/; Michael Pröbsting: Situación mundial: en medio de un tornado político global. Notas sobre los acontecimientos mundiales caracterizados por la guerra de Ucrania, la rivalidad interimperialista, la crisis energética y alimentaria mundial, así como las protestas masivas espontáneas, 13 de abril de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-situation-april-2022/#anker_3.

[2] La CCRI ha analizado con mucho detalle la crisis de la economía mundial capitalista. Los documentos más recientes se compilan en una subpágina especial en nuestro sitio web: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-great-depression/

[3] Vitor Gaspar, Paulo Medas, Roberto Perrelli: Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion, IMF, diciembre 15, 2021, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/15/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion

[4] Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis: CPB World Trade Monitor July 2022 (23 de septiembre de 2022), p. 5

[5] La CCRI ha publicado una serie de estudios sobre la creciente rivalidad entre las grandes potencias y el surgimiento de China y Rusia como nuevos estados imperialistas. Muchos de estos están recopilados en estas subpáginas de nuestro sitio web: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ y https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/. En particular queremos referirnos al libro de Michael Pröbsting: Anti-imperialismo en la Era de la Rivalidad de las Grandes Potencias. Los factores detrás de la Rivalidad acelerada entre los E.U, China, Rusia, la U.E y Japón. Una crítica del análisis de la izquierda y una semblanza de la Perspectiva Marxista, RCIT Books, Viena 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/

[6] Remitimos a los lectores a una página especial en nuestro sitio web donde se compilan más de 120 documentos de la CCRI sobre la guerra de Ucrania y el conflicto actual entre la OTAN y Rusia: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/

[7] Ver en esto, p. CCRI: ¡No a la guerra entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán, fuera las tropas rusas de la región! Armenia-Azerbaiyán: ¡Abajo la guerra reaccionaria! ¡Fuera el imperialismo ruso del Cáucaso!, 16 de septiembre de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-down-with-the-reactionary-war/#anker_3

[8] Véase, por ejemplo, CCRI: Ethiopia: Down with the Reactionary Civil War! 9th November 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/ethiopia-down-with-the-reactionary-civil-war/

[9] Para nuestro análisis del capitalismo griego, véase el libro de Michael Pröbsting: Greece: A Modern Semi-Colony. The Contradictory Development of Greek Capitalism, Its Failed Attempts to Become a Minor Imperialist Power, and Its Present Situation as an Advanced Semi-Colonial Country with Some Specific Features, November 2015, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/greece-semi-colony/

[10] Para un análisis del capitalismo turco, véase, p. el folleto de Michael Pröbsting: ¿Es Turquía una potencia (sub)imperialista? Las características económicas, políticas y militares del estado turco, su carácter de clase y las consecuencias programáticas para los socialistas. Una contribución a un debate en curso entre los marxistas, 25 de septiembre de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/is-tuerkiye-a-sub-imperialist-power/#anker_5

[11] Ver en esto p. CCRI: Taiwán: la visita de Pelosi podría provocar una guerra entre EE. UU. y China. ¡Abajo las dos Grandes Potencias imperialistas, por una política de Derrotismo Revolucionario!, 1 de agosto de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/taiwan-pelosi-visit-might-provoke-war-between-the-u-s-and-china/#anker_1; Taiwán: Rivalidad entre grandes potencias y cuestión nacional. Sobre el conflicto entre el imperialismo estadounidense y chino, sus consecuencias para la crisis del orden mundial capitalista, sobre la cuestión nacional de Taiwán y el programa de derrotismo revolucionario, 20 de agosto de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/taiwan-great-power-rivalry-and-national-question/#anker_1

[12] Véase, por ejemplo, CCRI: Amenazas de guerra nuclear entre grandes potencias. Sobre algunas consecuencias para la situación mundial y para la táctica socialista en la defensa de Ucrania, 5 de octubre de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/threats-of-nuclear-war-between-great-powers/#anker_1

[13] La CCRI ha publicado numerosos documentos sobre la Revolución Árabe que se pueden leer en: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/

[14] La CCRI ha publicado una serie de documentos sobre el levantamiento popular en los EE. UU. que se compilan en una subpágina especial en nuestro sitio web: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/north-america/articles-on-uprising-after-murder-of-george-floyd/

[15] Ver, p. RSV: Nigeria: End SARS Memorial 2021: Keep The Movement Alive By Expanding Her Demands! 21st October, 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/nigeria-end-sars-memorial-2021/

[16] La CCRI ha analizado extensamente la contrarrevolución del COVID-19 desde sus inicios. A partir del 2 de febrero de 2020, hemos publicado alrededor de 100 documentos que se compilan en una subpágina especial en nuestro sitio web: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. Véase también nuestro libro de Michael Pröbsting: La Contrarrevolución del COVID-19: Qué es y Cómo Combatirla. Un análisis y una estrategia marxistas para la lucha revolucionaria, RCIT Books, abril de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/la-contrarrevoluci%C3%B3n-del-covid-19-qu%C3%A9-es-y-c%C3%B3mo-combatirla/

[17] Los documentos de la CCRI sobre la guerra civil en Myanmar están compilados en una subpágina especial en nuestro sitio web: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/collection-of-articles-on-the-military-coup-in-myanmar/

[18] Vea en este varios documentos de la CCRI compilados en una subpágina en nuestro sitio web: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/mass-protests-against-reactionary-regime-in-iran/

[19] Los últimos documentos de la CCRI sobre estos desarrollos son: Putin Announces Colonial Annexation of Ukrainian Territories, 30 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/putin-announces-colonial-annexation-of-ukrainian-territories/; El imperialismo ruso intensifica la guerra colonial contra Ucrania. ¡Abajo los vergonzosos “referéndums” en los territorios ocupados por Rusia! ¡No a la “movilización” masiva para la guerra! ¡Defendamos a Ucrania – Por la derrota del imperialismo ruso!, 21 de septiembre de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russian-empire-escalates-its-colonial-war-against-the-ukraine/#anker_2; Revolutionary Tactics in the Struggle against Putin’s Mobilisation. On some issues of the program of defeatism under the current conditions of Russia’s war against the Ukraine, 28 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/revolutionary-tactics-in-the-struggle-against-putin-s-mobilisation/

[20] Ver en esto, p. dos documentos de la CCRI que se pueden leer aquí: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/action-program-against-the-food-and-energy-crisis/

[21] Para nuestro enfoque programático sobre los conflictos interimperialistas, véase, p. CCRI: Tesis sobre el derrotismo revolucionario en los estados imperialistas, 8 de septiembre de 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/tesis-sobre-el-derrotismo-revolucionario-en-los-estados-imperialistas/

[22] V. I. Lenin: Argumentos de los socialpatriotas, en Lenin Obras Completas, Ed. Progreso, Tomo 28, p. 276, https://www.marxists.org/espanol/lenin/obras/oc/progreso/tomo28.pdf

특별한 폭발적 조합

세계정세에 관한 노트

미하엘 프뢰브스팅, 혁명적 공산주의인터내셔널 동맹 (RCIT) 국제서기, 2022 10 6, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

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다음은 포괄적인 세계 정세전망 문서가 아니라, 세계정세의 특징에 대한 가지 간략한 점검이다.[1] 본론으로 바로 들어가자.

세계정세의 비상한 성격은 복수의 위기들이 결합되어 있다는 점이다. 자본주의 세계경제는 1930년대 이후 최악의 공황을 맞고 있다. 동시에, 세계 정치질서는 분해·해체의 과정에 있다. 이러한 사태발전은 전쟁과 함께 닥쳐오고 있는 정치적 폭발과 결부되어 있다. 모든 과정들은 자체의 법칙과 역학을 가지면서도 서로에게 영향을 미치고 포괄적인 정치적·경제적 성격의 위기 심화시킨다.

 

대공황과 2008 대공황: 차이

이들 개개의 사태발전들에 대해서는 우리가 여러 문서를 통해 분석해왔으므로 간단한 요약정리만 하고 넘어가자. 자본주의 세계경제는 2019 말에 대공황기에 들어갔다. 2020 하반기까지 지속한 극심한 1 침체와 뒤이은 단기 회복 이후, 2021 세계시장은 2 침체로 접어들기 시작했다. 이제 위기 과정은 1929-33년의 악명 높은 기간을 무색하게 정도로 미증유의 불황으로 깊어지고 있다.[2]

2008/09 공황과 비교할 공황이 갖는 차이는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 독점 부르주아지가 공황에 대응하는 있어 입지가 훨씬 취약해져 있다.

a) 부채 수준이 2007년보다 상당히 높다는 점을 감안할 독점 부르주아지가 가진 재정 보유고는 당시보다 훨씬 작다. 예를 들어 글로벌 부채는 2007년에 GDP "단지" 195%였던 비해 2020년에는 256% 달한다.[3]

b) 세계 2 경제대국 중국이 2008/09년에는 높은 성장률로 훨씬 나은 위치에 있었지만 지금은 완연한 불황에 있다. (예를 들어 중국의 산업생산은 2분기에 7.2% 감소했다).[4] 2008/09년에는 세계경제가 최악의 상황을 피할 있도록 중국이 도울 있었지만, 이번에는 그럴 능력이 없다.

그러나 2008년과의 훨씬 중요한 차이점은, 이번에는 공황이 1945 이후 세계정치질서의 가장 극적인 위기 함께 진행되고 있다는 것이다. 우리가 여러 문서에서 설명했듯이, 오랜 패권국 제국주의를 비롯해 서방 열강 전반의 쇠퇴 그와 동시에 강대국들 (무엇보다도 중국과 러시아) 부상이 시기의 핵심 특징을 이루고 있다.[5]

이러한 세계 정치질서의 위기가 경제 위기에 직간접적인 영향을 미치고 있다. 강대국 간의 패권경쟁은 경기침체에 대해 이들 강대국이 협력 조정해서 대응하는 2008년에 어느 정도 이루어졌던 불가능하게 만든다. 현재 각국 중앙은행들의 필사적인 금리 인상과 극심한 환율 변동을 보라.

설상가상으로, 서방 제국주의와 · 제국주의가 상호 간에 제재를 확대 고조시키면서 컴퓨터 칩에서 식량·에너지에 이르기까지 거의 모든 분야에서 추가적인 생산·공급망 붕괴를 불러왔다.

 

혁명적 정세를 향해 가고 있는가?

세계 정치질서의 위기가 전쟁으로 발현되고 있다. 가장 중요한 것은 당연히 2 24 이래의 우크라이나 전쟁이다.[6] 그러나 지난 , 다른 군사적 대결이 일어나기도 했는데, 아르메니아와 아제르바이잔 간의 충돌[7], 타지키스탄과 키르기스스탄 간의 충돌, 에티오피아 내전의 부활[8] 등이 있었다. 그리고 여기에 더해 그리스[9] 튀르키예[10] 간의 전쟁 위협이 있었다.

제국주의 상호간 패권경쟁의 가속화와 세계정치의 군사화는 불가피하게 강대국 간의 전쟁 위험을 증가시킨다. 최근 8 대만해협 사태에서 상호 무력시위[11], 그리고 중요하게는 우크라이나 전쟁에서 현재 러시아의 굴욕적인 패배로 인한 핵전쟁 위협이 생생한 예다.[12]

핵무기를 지역에 제한적으로 사용하더라도 세계정치와 세계경제에 파괴적이고 장기적인 결과를 초래할 것이라는 것은 따로 설명이 필요 없을 것이다. 그리고 무엇보다도 훨씬 많은 전쟁과 내전을 불러올 것이다.

우리가 보기에, 지난 2008/09 공황과는 다른 중요한 차이점이 존재한다. 2008/09 위기의 지연된 정치적 결과물이 2011 초에 시작된, 그리고 대부분 지역에 국한된 아랍 혁명의 과정이었다.[13] 대조적으로, 이번에는 대공황의 정치적 파장이 즉각적이면서 세계적으로 시작됐다. 2019 하반기의 세계적인 민중항쟁 물결이 그것이다. 다른 주요 정치적 격변들이 뒤따랐는데, 2020 여름 미국의 흑인 목숨도 소중하다 항쟁[14], 나이지리아의 #EndSARS 시위[15], 코로나 반혁명 권위주의 정책에 반대하는 대중시위[16], 미얀마 군사 쿠데타에 반대하는 민중봉기와 뒤이은 내전[17], 그리고 이란 민중항쟁[18] 등이 그것이다.

위에서 언급한 세계 위기의 특징들이 결합되면 남반구 반식민지 나라들뿐만 아니라 제국주의 열강 중심부들에서도 중대한 정치적 폭발을 야기할 것으로 보인다.

러시아군의 굴욕적인 패배/ 그로 인한 모스크바 지배 엘리트 내부의 분열/ "동원령" 반대하는 지역의 대중시위 , 모든 것은 혁명적 정세와 푸틴 정권의 몰락을 촉발할 있는 폭풍우가 다가오고 있다는 지표다.[19]

유럽도 다르지 않다. 극적인 에너지 위기와 그로 인한 겨울 혹한, 깊은 사회적 분열에 직면해 있는 유럽 또한 대대적인 격변과 나아가 혁명적 위기를 맞을 있다.[20] 미국도 사회적·정치적 분열이 어느 때보다도 깊어진 상황에서 지배계급의 내분이 도화선이 되어 2020년보다 항쟁의 불길을 당길 있다. 그리고 중국의 시진핑 정권도 1960년대의 '문화대혁명' 이후 최악의 경제위기와 혹독한 록다운 봉쇄 정책 ('제로-코로나') 가속화 하는 대미(對美) 긴장 고조 등을 감안할 극적인 사태에 직면할 있다.

모든 것에 더해 남반구 각국에서의 혁명적 폭발 가능성이 추가된다.

모든 대륙의 지배계급이 폭발하는 화산 위에 앉아 있는 것이다. 실로 우리가 세계적인 혁명적 정세 향해 가고 있다는 강력한 징후들이 있다.

 

사회주의자들의 임무에 대하여

분명히, 그러한 폭발적인 사태발전은 혁명가들의 임무와 관련한 중요한 지점들을 제기한다. 짧은 노트에서는 일단 개요를 제시하는 것에 국한하고, 상세한 설명은 전면적이고 포괄적인 논설을 통해 제출할 것이다.

1) 일차적으로 세계정세에 대한 올바른 평가분석을 확보하는 것이 중요하다. 무엇보다도 강대국들의 계급적 성격을 인식해야 한다는 점이다. ( 서방 강대국들만이 제국주의가 아니라 중국·러시아도 제국주의임을 이해해야 한다). 여기가 RCIT 비롯한 모든 진정한 혁명가들이 푸틴과 시진핑의 사회제국주의적 시녀들과 극명하게 대조를 이루는 지점이다. 문제에서 혼란스러워 하며 명확한 입장을 취하길 거부하는 사회주의자들과도 분명하게 대조되는 지점이다. 이로부터 다음과 같은 결론이 나온다. <사회주의자들은 혁명적 패전주의 강령에 입각하여 모든 제국주의 강대국에 반대해야 한다는 , 이것이 필수불가결의 조건이다.>[21]

2) , 혁명적인 것과 반혁명적인 것을 구별하지 않고서는, 어떤 것이 지지 받아야 혁명이고, 어떤 것이 무슨 수단을 써서라도 맞서 싸워야 하는 반혁명인지 이해하지 않고서는 사회주의자일 없다. 예를 들어, 지금의 푸틴주의자들이나 스탈린주의자들, 또는 중립 기권주의자들이 2011 당시 아랍 혁명을 시작 직후에 파렴치하게도 "반동적 투쟁"이니 "색깔 혁명"이니 등등으로 비방한 사실을 상기해볼 있다. (스탈린주의자들과 앨런 우즈의 IMT 같은 사이비 트로츠키주의자들이 2013 7 이집트에서 시시 장군의 반혁명 군사 쿠데타를 환영한 사실도 함께 떠올려보라). 많은 "사회주의자"들이 우크라이나 인민의 민족방위 정의전을 지지하길 거부하는 오늘의 우크라이나 전쟁도 마찬가지다.

3) 노동운동이 자본주의 체제의 정치적·경제적·군사적 모순으로 촉발된 모든 위기를 노동자계급·피억압자의 해방투쟁을 진전시키기 위해 활용해야 한다는 것은 혁명가들의 공리다. 레닌은 1 세계대전에 비추어 다음과 같이 밝힌 있다. "중요한 것은 위기를 혁명적 선전을 위해, 혁명적 행동 준비를 위해 활용하는 것이다."[22] 이것은 오늘날에도 못지않게 진실이다! 혁명적 투쟁의 부담을 불평하고 다가오는 전쟁과 야만의 위험을 핑계로 전장에서 빠져버리는 저들 사기저하 되고 퇴물이 ()맑스주의자들 현재 개량주의·중도주의의 대열을 채우고 넘쳐나는 대해 우리가 경멸 외에는 달리 표할 것이 없는 이유다. 명확히 하자. 계급 정치적·경제적·군사적 모순이 첨예하고 폭발적일수록, 전쟁과 반혁명뿐만 아니라 사회적 폭발과 혁명적 기회도 커진다. 이것이 바로 혁명가들이 정치적으로, 실천적으로 준비해야만 하는 것이다.

4) 혁명가들은 노동운동 내에서, 선진활동가 대열 내에서 기회주의 이데올로그들, 사회제국주의자들, 해방투쟁에 대한 중립 기권주의자들의 악영향과 싸워야 한다. 노동자운동을 사기저하로 몰아넣고 타락시키고 혼란을 조장하는 그러한 악영향을 밀어내지 않고서는 자본의 지배와 제국주의에 맞서 비타협적으로 싸우기란 가능하지 않다.

5) "세계를 해석하는 것뿐만 아니라 세계를 바꾸는 " 중요함은 혁명가들에게 말할 필요가 없다. 이것은 가능한 데서는 어디서든 대중투쟁에 결합 관여하고 노동자계급·피억압자 내에서 뿌리를 공고히 하고 깊게 하는 것을 의미한다. 혁명가들이 계급투쟁과 대중으로부터 고립된 남아 있다면 종파주의자로 추락하는 위험에 처할 것이다.

6) 이러한 계급투쟁 결합, 이러한 대중과의 '융합' 대중에 대한 모든 형태의 노동귀족적 편견에서 완전히 자유로울 때에만 가능하다. 지난 10년의 경험은 대중투쟁에 먼저 합류하는 것이, 민중봉기의 스타트를 끊는 것이 반드시 "정치적으로 교육받은", “조직화가 되어 있는 부분들이지 않다는 것을 보여준다. 진정한 혁명가들은 계급투쟁을 있는 그대로 받으며, 어떻게 "되어야 하는지" 잣대로 하여 계급투쟁을 재지 않는다.

7) 끝으로, RCIT 비롯한 모든 진정한 혁명가들은 서로 다른 단체들 조직들의 관계정립과 통일단결을 위해 힘써야 한다. 보수적 일상주의를 시간이 없다. 과감한 발의와 용기 있는 전진의 발걸음을 내딛어야 때다. 실수는 있지만 실수를 두려워할 이유는 없다. 맑스주의자들은 실수하는 , 오류를 범하는 것을 두려워하지 않는다. 맑스주의자들은 계급투쟁에서 기회를 놓치고 오류로부터 배우는 것을 거부함으로써 한심한 혁명가가 되는 것을 두려워할 뿐이다. 그러나 이러한 재편성 과정은 국제 계급투쟁의 주요 임무들에 대한 원칙 있는 동의에 입각하여 추상적 문구 (“사회주의 찬성이나 트로츠키 이행강령 찬성 같은 식의) 입각해서가 아니라 이루어져야 한다.

우리는 오는 , 년이 무엇을 가져올지 알지 못하며, 수도 없다. 그러나 우리가 문자 그대로의 의미에서 역사적인 순간에 살고 있다는 것과 모든 정치 세력이 시험 받는 그런 시기에 살고 있다는 것에는 의심의 여지가 없다. RCIT 국제주의적·반제국주의적·혁명적 강령을 바탕으로 계급투쟁에서 이론과 실천의 오랜 이력을 가지고 있다. 우리는 혁명 지도력 위기를 극복하기 위해 다른 사회주의자들과 긴밀한 협력에 착수하기를, 그리하여 공동으로 혁명세계당 만들 있기를 고대한다! 동지들, 자매형제들, 주저하지 말고 지금 행동에 나서자. 결단력 있게 행동하자!

 

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[1] 세계정세에 대한 우리의 가장 최근 문서로는, 다음을 보라. Medina Gunić: Recession, Energy Crisis, Strengthening of the Imperialist Blocs The World Situation will change soon enough, 23 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-situation-will-change-soon-enough/; 미하엘 프뢰브스팅, <세계정세: 글로벌 정치 토네이도의 한가운데서 - 우크라이나 전쟁/ 제국주의 세력권 쟁탈전/ 세계 에너지·식량 위기/ 자생적 대중항쟁 , 정세 발전에 관한 노트>, 2022 4 13, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/05/blog-post_97.html?q=%EC%A0%95%EC%B9%98+%ED%86%A0%EB%84%A4%EC%9D%B4%EB%8F%84/.

[2] RCIT 자본주의 세계경제 위기에 대해 상세히 분석해왔다. 다음 우리 웹사이트 특별 하위 페이지에 가장 최근 문서들을 모아 정리해놓았다. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-great-depression/.

[3] Vitor Gaspar, Paulo Medas, Roberto Perrelli: Global Debt Reaches a Record $226 Trillion, IMF, December 15, 2021, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/12/15/blog-global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-trillion

[4] Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis: CPB World Trade Monitor July 2022 (23 September 2022), p. 5

[5] RCIT 가속화하는 강대국 패권경쟁과 ·러의 제국주의 강대국 부상에 대한 많은 연구 보고를 발표했다. 다음 링크에서 이를 있다. https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/. 특히 다음을 보라. 미하엘 프뢰브스팅, <<강대국 패권쟁투 시대에 반제국주의>>, 2019, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/06/blog-post_9.html?q=%EA%B0%95%EB%8C%80%EA%B5%AD+%ED%8C%A8%EA%B6%8C%EA%B2%BD%EC%9F%81+%EC%8B%9C%EB%8C%80/

[6] 우크라이나 전쟁과 나토-러시아 분쟁에 관한 120 편의 RCIT 문서가 다음의 우리 웹사이트 특별 페이지에 수록되어 있다. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/.

[7] 이에 대해서는 다음을 보라. RCIT: Armenia-Azerbaijan: Down with the Reactionary War! No to chauvinist excesses! Drive Russian imperialism out of the Caucasus! 16 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/armenia-azerbaijan-down-with-the-reactionary-war/

[8] 다음을 보라. RCIT: Ethiopia: Down with the Reactionary Civil War! 9th November 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/ethiopia-down-with-the-reactionary-civil-war/

[9] 그리스 자본주의에 대한 우리의 평가 분석으로는, 다음을 보라. Michael Pröbsting: Greece: A Modern Semi-Colony. The Contradictory Development of Greek Capitalism, Its Failed Attempts to Become a Minor Imperialist Power, and Its Present Situation as an Advanced Semi-Colonial Country with Some Specific Features, November 2015, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/greece-semi-colony/

[10] 터키 자본주의에 대한 평가 분석으로는, 다음을 보라. Michael Pröbsting: Is Türkiye a (Sub-)Imperialist Power? The economic, political and military features of the Turkish state, its class character and the programmatic consequences for socialists. 25 September 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/is-tuerkiye-a-sub-imperialist-power/

[11] 이에 대해서는 다음을 보라. RCIT, <펠로시의 대만 방문: · 전쟁을 촉발할 있다 - 양측 제국주의 모두 반대! 제국주의 강대국 · 모두 타도! · 대결에서 노동자운동은 양측 모두에 대해 혁명적 패전주의를 취해야 한다!>, 2022 8 1, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/08/blog-post_2.html/; <[대만 테제] 강대국 패권쟁투와 민족 문제>, 2022 8 20, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/08/blog-post_72.html/

[12] 이에 대해서는 다음을 보라. RCIT: Threats of Nuclear War between Great Powers. On some consequences for the world situation and for socialist tactics in the defence of the Ukraine, 5 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/threats-of-nuclear-war-between-great-powers/

[13] RCIT 아랍 혁명에 대한 수많은 문서를 발표했다. 다음 링크에서 있다. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/

[14] RCIT 미국 민중항쟁에 대한 여러 문서를 발표했다. 다음 링크에서 있다. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/north-america/articles-on-uprising-after-murder-of-george-floyd/.

[15] 다음을 보라. RSV: Nigeria: End SARS Memorial 2021: Keep The Movement Alive By Expanding Her Demands! 21st October, 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/nigeria-end-sars-memorial-2021/

[16] RCIT 코로나19 반혁명을 시작 이래 광범위에 걸쳐 분석해왔다. 2020 2월부터 시작하여 100건의 문서를 발표했다. 다음 링크에서 이것을 있다. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. 우리의 다음 책도 보라. 미하엘 프뢰브스팅, <<코로나19 글로벌 반혁명: 그것은 무엇이고, 그것에 맞서 어떻게 싸울 것인가 - 맑스주의적 분석과 혁명적 투쟁 전략>>, 2020 4, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/06/19.html/.

[17] 미얀마 민중봉기에 대한 RCIT 문서들이 다음 우리 웹사이트 특별 하위 페이지에 수록되어 있다. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/collection-of-articles-on-the-military-coup-in-myanmar/

[18] 이에 대한 RCIT 문서들이 다음 링크에 정리 수록되어 있다. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/africa-and-middle-east/mass-protests-against-reactionary-regime-in-iran/

[19] 우크라이나 전쟁 최근 동향에 관한 다음 RCIT 문서들을 보라. <러시아 제국주의가 우크라이나 영토에 대한 식민 병합을 선포하다>, 2022 9 30, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/10/blog-post_2.html/; <푸틴의 동원령 점령지 주민투표 실시: 우크라이나에 대한 식민전쟁의 확전>, 2022 9 21, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/09/blog-post_25.html/; <푸틴의 동원령에 반대하는 투쟁에서 혁명가들의 전술>, 2022 9 28, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/10/blog-post_50.html/

[20] 이에 대해서는 다음 RCIT 문서를 보라. <식량·에너지 위기/ 물가폭등에 맞서 어떻게 싸울 것인가>, 2022 9 14, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/10/blog-post_4.html

[21] 제국주의 상호 충돌에 대한 우리의 강령적 접근태도로는, 다음을 보라. <제국주의 국가에서의 혁명적 패전주의에 관한 테제>, 2018 9 8, https://blog.wrpkorea.org/2022/05/blog-post_9.html/

[22] V. I. Lenin: Arguments of the Social-Patriots, in: LCW Vol. 39, p. 275, https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1916/ni-eps/argsopat.htm