The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”


On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”


A Pamphlet by Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 27 May 2018,


Note of the Editorial Board: The pamphlet contains 5 tables, 13 figures and 1 diagram. The figures and the diagram can only be viewed in the pdf version (download below).



Adobe Acrobat Document 2.1 MB


Part 1:


A Note on the PO’s term “Catatrophism

What did the Marxist Classics Say? A Brief Overview

Empirical Evidence for the Long-Term Decline of Capitalism



Part 2:

What will come after Capitalism?

Epoch and Periods



Part 3:

The Current Historical Period which Opened in 2008/09

Empirical Evidence for the Decay of Capitalism in the Present Historic Period

The Dialectical and the Mechanistic Interpretation of Cycles on Capitalism



Part 4:

Permanent Collapse? No, there is Collapse and Collapse

Consequences of “Catastrophism” (I): Confusion on Capitalist Restoration

Consequences of “Catastrophism” (II): Confusion on China and Russia as Capitalist Powers



Part 5:

Excurse: The Theory of “Long Waves” and Dialectical Materialism

From Economic Crisis to Revolutionary Situation?



Part 6:

Can the Crisis of Leadership be Solved without an International Democratic-Centralist Organization?