By Medina Gunić, Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 23 August 2022, www.thecommunists.net
For now, and since some months already, the world situation had an interim character – while we live in the revolutionary period that started with 2007/2008, the current dynamic of class struggle worldwide seemed to stand at a sort of equilibrium. This is an unusual and rare situation, short-lived by its very own nature. A situation that inevitable will change soon enough.
Rumors are that China and Russia will utilize the upcoming G20 summit in November to show unity against Western imperialism. Putin has already condemned the visit of Pelosi in Taiwan. Furthermore, China has increased its import on oil from Russia by 7,6 % in comparison with July last year. 7.42 million tons of coal, an increase by 14% (!) have been imported from Russia the same month.
At the 6th China Soybean Industry International Summit Forum agreements for building infrastructure on planting, processing, and warehousing of Chinese soybeans in Russia have been decided. Yet, another step in the wider China-Russian agricultural collaboration. Obviously, the Chinese imperialist has quite strengthened its economic ties with the Russian imperialist within the last three months. The reasons for this move are very clear.
First, contrary to the Western imperialist sanctions, neither the Chinese capitalists nor the Chinese imperialist state, having its firm crip on the former, obey to the Western imposed sanction policy against Russia. The main concern for the Chinese imperialist stays its own economic advantage and not any pseudo-defense of “democratic values”.
Second, the accelerating tensions of the Taiwan conflict have proven to the Chinese imperialist ones again that their current main enemy is the United States. It is by no means an accident that Moscow and Beijing have strengthened their respective support for each other in the beginning of February 2022 via the meeting of Xi and Putin, only to have the invasion of Ukraine started shortly after. While the Chinese government might have hesitated to fully support the Russian invasion, the recent quarrel about Taiwan has reduced those hesitations quite a bit.
An ongoing trend is also the strengthening of a Western block (see the AUKUS pact in September 2021). However, in the accelerating rivalry between Eastern and Western imperialism, the European Union remains the confused and indecisive weakling oscillating between illusions in bourgeois diplomacy and lukewarm attempts to transform into a stronger imperialist entity.
While the Eastern imperialists seem fit to truly form stronger relations with each other, their Western counterparts still struggle with each other. On the ground of the imperialist war against Ukraine by Russia, the just defense of the Ukrainian people has not been forced under Western imperialist control (at least yet). The hesitations for such a step (especially from the imperialist European Union) are still big enough as it obviously could turn the invasion into an inter-imperialist war. But the crisis ridden Western imperialists are running out of time and a stronger bond between China and Russia lets the clock tick at an even faster pace.
Indeed, the upcoming G20 summit might turn into one of historic significance. Not only because it offers the opportunity for imperialists of all sides to harden the lines of the inter-imperialist conflict. But also, because facing the deep recession, the explosion of prices on food and basic goods and the looming scenario of a very cold winter (respectively very hot summer in the Southern part of the planet) with multiple power cuts due to the energy crisis, the ruling classes of the world have tough decisions to make. Either they start a counterrevolution comparable of the dimension we have seen with the COVID Counterrevolution of 2020 (and maybe even bigger) or they might face a never-before-seen wave of (pre-)revolutionary events around multiple regions worldwide – or both. All signs are there that the interim situation will change soon enough.
Reformists and centrists might shake facing those perspectives, but for us as authentic revolutionaries, the phrase “what a time to be alive” comes to mind!
True internationalists oppose all imperialist camps, be it Western or Eastern imperialism. While the imperialists prepare their G20 summit, authentic revolutionaries must prepare for the revolutionary and counterrevolutionary events to come. Sooner or later a new Zimmerwald becomes more than just an idea, it becomes a historic necessity.
The RCIT calls all authentic socialists to join forces with us and to start the collaboration and preparations for the stormy times ahead of all of us!
Xi and Putin tipped to stage joint show of defiance against West at G20 summit in Bali, By Cyril Ip, South China Morning Post, 19 August 2022, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3189560/xi-jinping-and-vladimir-putin-tipped-stage-joint-show-defiance
U.S. aims to provoke regional instability with Pelosi's Taiwan visit: Putin, By Xinhuanet.com, https://english.news.cn/20220817/8a18913da1ad462e9d3294f462f2d0ae/c.html
China-Russia soybean trade takes centre stage at annual industry gathering near border, By Orange Wang, South China Morning Post, 18 August 2022, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3189377/china-russia-soybean-trade-takes-centre-stage-annual-industry
China's July Russian coal imports hit 5-year high as West shuns Moscow, By Reuters, 20 August 2022, https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/chinas-july-russian-coal-imports-hit-5-yr-high-west-shuns-moscow-2022-08-20/
Taiwan: Great Power Rivalry and National Question. On the conflict between U.S. and Chinese imperialism, its consequences for the crisis of the capitalist world order, on Taiwan’s national question and the program of revolutionary defeatism, 20 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/taiwan-great-power-rivalry-and-national-question/
World Situation: In the Midst of a Global Political Tornado. Notes on global developments characterized by the Ukraine War, inter-imperialist rivalry, global energy and food crisis as well as spontaneous mass protests, 13 April 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-situation-april-2022/