“Markets are wild“: Banks and Stock Markets Teeter on the Brink

Some notes on the nature of the crisis and its political and economic consequences

By Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 15 March 2023, www.thecommunists.net

 

Panic is spreading at the stock markets. Within a few days, two U.S. banks – the Silicon Valley Bank and the Signature Bank – have collapsed. Today, the share price of Credit Suisse, one of the nine largest global investment banks ("Bulge Bracket"), dropped nearly 25%. Add to this that Asian stock markets also stumbled in the last few days.

Clearly, this is a serious crisis of the global financial system and not a temporary wobble caused by a particularly incompetent bank. Reuters quotes an Italian banker saying: “Markets are wild. We move from the problems of American banks to those of European banks, first of all Credit Suisse”. [1]

The Biden Administration and the Fed intervened over the weekend in order to avoid a collapse of the stock markets a la “Black Friday” in 1929. Shortly before the opening of Wall Street, the U.S. President said in a televised statement from the White House: “Americans can rest assured that our banking system is safe. Your deposits are safe,” the president said. “Let me also assure you we will not stop at this; we’ll do whatever is needed.

While this intervention helped to avoid an immediate collapse, it can not remove the fundamental problems of the financial sector in the U.S. A highly interesting academic study published on Monday points to the highly fragile nature of America’s banking system. The authors of the study – to which the Financial Times drew attention – conclude that its real market value of assets is $2 trillion lower than its official book value.

The U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is $2 trillion lower than suggested by their book value of assets. We show that these losses, combined with a large share of uninsured deposits at some U.S. banks can impair their stability. Even if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to even insured depositors, with potentially $300 billion of insured deposits at risk. If uninsured deposit withdrawals cause even small fire sales, substantially more banks are at risk. Overall, these calculations suggest that recent declines in bank asset values significantly increased the fragility of the US banking system to uninsured depositors runs.[2]

The collapse of Credit Suisse – which was triggered by the announcement of its biggest shareholder (the Saudi National Bank) that it would not inject more money into the ailing bank – reflects that the rottenness of the financial system is not limited to the U.S.

We will see if other governments and central banks will also intervene decisively to avoid a 1929-like scenario and how far they are prepared (and able!) to go in their determination to bail out the bankrupt banks and shareholders.

What can be said already now is that this is a serious crisis which will not go away. If the capitalist governments and central banks manage to avoid an immediate collapse, they will only put off the evil day.

 

Another confirmation of the Marxist analysis of the current period of Great Depression

 

At this point, we have to limit ourselves to a few notes about the nature and the consequences of the crisis of the global financial sector. First, the latest financial crisis does not come out of the blue. It confirms the analysis of the RCIT that the capitalist world economy remains stuck in a period of Great Depression which began in autumn 2019. After a first phase of slump which lasted until the second half of 2020, the global economy saw a brief period of recovery which soon came to a close by another phase of slump at the end of 2021. This second slump has a more protracted character compared with the phase in spring 2020. We will see if the current stock market crunch opens a new stage of this crisis. In short, the capitalist world economy is not experiencing its usual cycle of booms and busts – it is in a long-term period of stagnation and decay. [3]

Given the serious nature of the current crisis, it inevitable that it will have massive political and economic consequences. Let us note only a few of these at this point. If the Biden Administration stays the course and tries to avoid a collapse of the financial sector by massive state-capitalist intervention, this will inevitable result in a dramatic increase of public debt. However, this is a risky policy since the U.S. did already use this instrument in the past 15 years. As a result, public debt in the U.S. doubled from 64.6% of GDP in 2007 to 128.1% in 2021. Such a policy can not last forever as it risks, at one point, to result in national bankruptcy.

As we show in Table 1 below, such massive indebtedness is not limited to the U.S. but a phenomenon of global capitalism. In average, global public debt increased by half from 2007 to 2021 – from 61.1% to 96%. The most dramatic increase took place in China where public debt increased from 29.2% to 71.5% in the same period.

 

Possible consequences for the global position of U.S. imperialism

 

There is a huge driving factor for Biden’s pro-interventionist policy, and this is the approaching period of Presidential elections. It is difficult to win an election in a period of economic collapse. No doubt, Biden is fully aware of the fate of Herbert Hoover, the U.S. President in 1929-33 who lost his re-election campaign against Franklin D. Roosevelt by 59-472, winning only 39.7% of the popular vote, a plunge of 26 percentage points from his result in the 1928 election.

However, a long and massive state-capitalist policy of bailing out the financial sector by dramatically increasing public debt will have huge consequences. It will undermine the status of the U.S. as the leading power and, in particular, of the U.S. Dollar as the key currency in global markets. This is even more the case as the position of the Dollar has already been undermined in the last period by the sanctions policy of the U.S. against Russia and China. [4] As result of this policy, a growing number of nations are turning to other currencies (like the Euro or the Yuan). If Biden sticks to such a pro-interventionist policy, it is not excluded that the next period could see a collapse of the Dollar’s hegemonic role.

It is also likely, that a state-capitalist interventionist approach of the Biden Administration in face of the economic turbulences will strongly influence Washington’s foreign policy. It is difficult to imagine how the White House could finance a continuation of its military aid for the Ukraine in such a situation. Hence, the financial crisis would massively increase the factors which, as we pointed out in a recently published document, have already pushed the U.S. to look for a pacification of the Ukraine War and a compromise with Russia. [5]

Could another slump force the U.S. to look for temporary accommodation with its main imperialist rivals – Russia and China? It is difficult to answer this question at the moment since, as we know from history, a period of domestic crisis can also push governments to look for a foreign adventure in order to deflect attention and to boost its prestige. [6]

As it is well-known, Vyacheslav Plehve, Minister of the Interior in Tsarist Russia, famously said that “we need a small victorious war” when the regime decided to go for a military confrontation with Japan in 1904. In less than a year, Russia had suffered humiliating defeats by the rising Asian power, the Tsarist autocracy was shaken to the very foundations by a workers and popular revolution and Plehve had been killed in a bomb attack by Igor Sazonov, a militant of the Social-Revolutionary Party. You see, foreign military adventures are a pretty risky thing!

We can not predict the future but, for sure, big things are coming!

 

Table 1. Global Public Debt, 2007-21 (Percent of GDP) [7]

                      2007                    2021

World                                                                         61.1                     96.0

Advanced Economies                                            71.7                     119.5

Euro Area                                                                  66.0                     97.8

Japan                                                                          172.8                   262.1

United Kingdom                                                      41.4                     102.8

United States                                                            64.6                     128.1

Emerging Market Economies                               35.0                     64.5

China                                                                           29.2                     71.5

Others                                                                         36.7                     58.5

Low-Income Developing Countries                      28.8                     48.5

 

 



[1] Noele Illien and Francesco Canepa and Rae Wee: 'Markets are wild': Credit Suisse leads Europe bank rout in fallout from SVB collapse, Reuters, Mar 15, 2023, https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/credit-suisse-svb-banking-market-rout

[2] Erica Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru: Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs? 13 March 2023, p.8; see also: Robin Wigglesworth: The US bank system is more fragile than you’d think, Financial Times, 2023-03-14, https://www-ft-com.ezp.lib.cam.ac.uk/content/84c4446a-d7aa-4f70-a286-adeb4fc4988c

[3] The RCIT has analysed the crisis of the capitalist world economy in much detail. The latest documents are compiled on a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-great-depression/. See e.g. Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: “The Next Decade Will Be Very Painful”. A revealing internal memorandum by China’s Huawei Founder Ren Zhengfei on the Great Depression, 26 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-the-next-decade-will-be-very-painful/; by the same author: World Economy: It’s Official – the Recession has Begun, 30 July 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-it-s-official-the-recession-has-begun/; World Economy: The Second Slump Has Begun, 28 November 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-the-second-slump-has-begun/; World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/; see Chapter I and II in RCIT: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; see Chapter I and II in Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/; by the same author: Another Great Recession of the Capitalist World Economy Has Begun. The economic crisis is an important factor in the current dramatic shift in the world situation, 19 October 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/another-great-recession-of-the-capitalist-world-economy-hasbegun/.

[4] See on this e.g. RCIT: Chip Sanctions: Another Step towards War between U.S. and China. Neither Washington nor Beijing! Revolutionary defeatism against all imperialist Great Powers! 25 October 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/chip-sanctions-another-step-towards-war-between-u-s-and-china/. For more documents on the Global Trade War see the compilation of our articles on our website, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/. See also e.g. Michael Pröbsting: Less Than 9%. Many Western corporations continue to make business with Russia despite the official sanction policy, 11 February 2023, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/western-corporations-continue-to-make-business-with-russia/

[5] RCIT: Towards a Turning Point in the Ukraine War? The tasks of socialists in the light of possible lines of development of the war of national defence in combination with the inter-imperialist Great Power rivalry, 11 March 2023, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/towards-a-turning-point-in-the-ukraine-war/; We refer readers to a special page on our website where more than 160 RCIT documents on the Ukraine War and the current NATO-Russia conflict are compiled: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/. In particular we refer to the RCIT Manifesto: Ukraine War: A Turning Point of World Historic Significance. Socialists must combine the revolutionary defense of the Ukraine against Putin’s invasion with the internationalist struggle against Russian as well as NATO and EU imperialism, 1 March 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/manifesto-ukraine-war-a-turning-point-of-world-historic-significance/; see also: Manifesto on the First Anniversary of the Ukraine War. Victory to the heroic Ukrainian people! Defeat Russian imperialism! No support whatsoever for NATO imperialism! 10 February 2023, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/manifesto-on-first-anniversary-of-ukraine-war/

[6] The RCIT has dealt on numerous occasions with the inter-imperialist rivalry of the Great Powers. See e.g. RCIT: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; see also our book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/; see also the following works by the same author: “A Really Good Quarrel”. US-China Alaska Meeting: The Inter-Imperialist Cold War Continues, 23 March 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/; for more works on this issue see these sub-pages: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

[7] International Monetary Fund: Global Debt Monitor 2022, December 2022, p. 6

"Los mercados están salvajes": los bancos y las bolsas de valores se tambalean al borde del abismo

Algunas notas sobre la naturaleza de la crisis y sus consecuencias políticas y económicas

Por Michael Pröbsting, Secretario Internacional de la Corriente Comunista Revolucionaria Internacional (CCRI), 15 de marzo de 2023, www.thecommunists.net

 

El pánico se está extendiendo en los mercados bursátiles. En unos pocos días, dos bancos estadounidenses, el Silicon Valley Bank y el Signature Bank, colapsaron. Hoy, el precio de las acciones de Credit Suisse, uno de los nueve bancos de inversión más grandes del mundo ("Bulge Bracket"), cayó casi un 25%. Añádase a esto que las bolsas asiáticas también tropezaron en los últimos días.

Claramente, esta es una crisis grave del sistema financiero global y no un tambaleo temporal causado por un banco particularmente incompetente. Reuters cita a un banquero italiano diciendo: “Los mercados están salvajes. Pasamos de los problemas de los bancos estadounidenses a los de los bancos europeos, en primer lugar, Credit Suisse”. [1]

La Administración Biden y la Fed intervinieron durante el fin de semana para evitar un colapso de los mercados bursátiles al estilo del “Viernes Negro” de 1929. Poco antes de la apertura de Wall Street, el presidente de EE. UU. dijo en un comunicado televisado desde la Casa Blanca: “Los estadounidenses pueden estar seguros de que nuestro sistema bancario es seguro. Sus depósitos están seguros”, dijo el presidente. “Permítanme también asegurarles que no nos detendremos en esto; haremos lo que sea necesario”.

Si bien esta intervención ayudó a evitar un colapso inmediato, no puede eliminar los problemas fundamentales del sector financiero de EE. UU. Un estudio académico muy interesante publicado el lunes señala la naturaleza sumamente frágil del sistema bancario estadounidense. Los autores del estudio, al que llamó la atención el Financial Times, concluyen que el valor real de mercado de sus activos es $2 billones inferior a su valor contable oficial.

El valor de mercado de los activos del sistema bancario de EE. UU. es $ 2 billones más bajo de lo sugerido por el valor contable de los activos. Mostramos que estas pérdidas, combinadas con una gran proporción de depósitos no asegurados en algunos bancos de EE. UU., pueden afectar su estabilidad. Incluso si solo la mitad de los depositantes no asegurados decidieran retirarse, casi 190 bancos corren un riesgo potencial de deterioro incluso para los depositantes asegurados, con potencialmente $300 mil millones de depósitos asegurados en riesgo. Si los retiros de depósitos no asegurados causan incluso pequeñas liquidaciones, muchos más bancos están en riesgo. En general, estos cálculos sugieren que las recientes caídas en los valores de los activos bancarios aumentaron significativamente la fragilidad del sistema bancario de EE. UU. frente a las corridas de los depositantes sin seguro”. [2]

El colapso de Credit Suisse, que fue provocado por el anuncio de su mayor accionista (el Banco Nacional Saudita) de que no inyectaría más dinero en el banco en crisis, refleja que la podredumbre del sistema financiero no se limita a los EE. UU.

Veremos si otros gobiernos y bancos centrales también intervendrán de forma decisiva para evitar un escenario como el de 1929 y hasta dónde están preparados (¡y capaces!) de llegar en su determinación de rescatar a los bancos y accionistas en quiebra.

Lo que se puede decir ya ahora es que esta es una crisis grave que no va a desaparecer. Si los gobiernos capitalistas y los bancos centrales logran evitar un colapso inmediato, solo pospondrán el mal día.

 

Otra confirmación del análisis marxista del período actual de la Gran Depresión

 

En este punto, tenemos que limitarnos a algunas notas sobre la naturaleza y las consecuencias de la crisis del sector financiero global. Primero, la última crisis financiera no surge de la nada. Confirma el análisis de la CCRI de que la economía mundial capitalista sigue estancada en un período de Gran Depresión que comenzó en el otoño de 2019. Después de una primera fase de recesión que duró hasta la segunda mitad de 2020, la economía mundial experimentó un breve período de recuperación que pronto llegó a su fin con otra fase de caída a finales de 2021. Esta segunda caída tiene un carácter más prolongado en comparación con la fase de la primavera de 2020. Veremos si la crisis bursátil actual abre una nueva etapa de esta crisis. En resumen, la economía mundial capitalista no está experimentando su ciclo habitual de auges y caídas: se encuentra en un período prolongado de estancamiento y decadencia. [3]

Dada la gravedad de la crisis actual, es inevitable que tenga enormes consecuencias políticas y económicas. Señalemos sólo algunos de ellos en este punto. Si la Administración Biden mantiene el rumbo y trata de evitar el colapso del sector financiero mediante una intervención masiva del capitalismo de Estado, esto inevitablemente dará como resultado un aumento dramático de la deuda pública. Sin embargo, esta es una política arriesgada ya que EE. UU. ya utilizó este instrumento en los últimos 15 años. Como resultado, la deuda pública en los EE. UU. se duplicó del 64,6 % del PIB en 2007 al 128,1 % en 2021. Tal política no puede durar para siempre, ya que corre el riesgo, en un momento dado, de provocar la bancarrota nacional.

Como mostramos en la Tabla 1 a continuación, tal endeudamiento masivo no se limita a los EE. UU., sino que es un fenómeno del capitalismo global. En promedio, la deuda pública mundial aumentó a la mitad entre 2007 y 2021, del 61,1 % al 96 %. El aumento más dramático tuvo lugar en China, donde la deuda pública aumentó del 29,2 % al 71,5 % en el mismo período.

 

Posibles consecuencias para la posición global del imperialismo estadounidense

 

Hay un gran factor impulsor de la política pro-intervencionista de Biden, y este es el próximo período de elecciones presidenciales. Es difícil ganar una elección en un período de colapso económico. Sin duda, Biden es plenamente consciente del destino de Herbert Hoover, el presidente de los EE. UU. en 1929-1933 que perdió su campaña de reelección contra Franklin D. Roosevelt por 59-472, ganando solo el 39,7% del voto popular, una caída de 26 puntos porcentuales de su resultado en las elecciones de 1928.

Sin embargo, una larga y masiva política de capitalismo de Estado de rescatar al sector financiero aumentando drásticamente la deuda pública tendrá enormes consecuencias. Socavará el estatus de EE. UU. como potencia líder y, en particular, del dólar estadounidense como moneda clave en los mercados globales. Este es aún más el caso dado que la posición del dólar ya se ha visto socavada en el último período por la política de sanciones de EE. UU. contra Rusia y China. [4] Como resultado de esta política, un número creciente de naciones están recurriendo a otras monedas (como el euro o el yuan). Si Biden se apega a una política tan pro-intervencionista, no se excluye que el próximo período pueda ver un colapso del papel hegemónico del dólar.

También es probable que un enfoque intervencionista de capitalismo de estado de la Administración Biden frente a las turbulencias económicas influya fuertemente en la política exterior de Washington. Es difícil imaginar cómo la Casa Blanca podría financiar la continuación de su ayuda militar para Ucrania en tal situación. Por lo tanto, la crisis financiera incrementaría masivamente los factores que, como señalamos en un documento publicado recientemente, ya han empujado a EE. UU. a buscar una pacificación de la Guerra de Ucrania y un compromiso con Rusia. [5]

¿Podría otra recesión obligar a Estados Unidos a buscar un acuerdo temporal con sus principales rivales imperialistas: Rusia y China? Es difícil responder a esta pregunta en este momento ya que, como sabemos por la historia, un período de crisis interna también puede empujar a los gobiernos a buscar una aventura exterior para desviar la atención y aumentar su prestigio.[6]

Como es bien sabido, Vyacheslav Plehve, ministro del Interior de la Rusia zarista, dijo que “necesitamos una pequeña guerra victoriosa” cuando el régimen decidió emprender una confrontación militar con Japón en 1904. En menos de un año, Rusia había sufrido derrotas humillantes por parte de la potencia asiática en ascenso, la autocracia zarista fue sacudida hasta los cimientos por una revolución obrera y popular y Plehve había muerto en un atentado con bomba perpetrado por Igor Sazonov, militante del Partido Social-Revolucionario. Verán, ¡las aventuras militares en el extranjero son algo bastante arriesgado!

No podemos predecir el futuro, pero, seguro, ¡se avecinan grandes cosas!

 

Tabla 1. Deuda pública mundial, 2007-2021 (Porcentaje del PIB)  [7]

                                                                                                      2007                    2021

Mundial                                                                                       61.1                     96.0

Economías Avanzadas                                                             71.7                     119.5

Zona del Euro                                                                             66.0                     97.8

Japón                                                                                           172.8                   262.1

Reino Unido                                                                                41.4                     102.8

Estados Unidos                                                                          64.6                     128.1

Economías Emergentes                                                           35.0                     64.5

China                                                                                             29.2                     71.5

Otros                                                                                              36.7                     58.5

Países en vías de desarrollo de bajos ingresos                   28.8                     48.5

 



[1] Noele Illien and Francesco Canepa and Rae Wee: 'Markets are wild': Credit Suisse leads Europe bank rout in fallout from SVB collapse, Reuters, Mar 15, 2023, https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/credit-suisse-svb-banking-market-rout

[2] Erica Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru: Monetary Tightening and U.S. Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs? 13 March 2023, p.8; see also: Robin Wigglesworth: The US bank system is more fragile than you’d think, Financial Times, 2023-03-14, https://www-ft-com.ezp.lib.cam.ac.uk/content/84c4446a-d7aa-4f70-a286-adeb4fc4988c

[3] La CCRI ha analizado con mucho detalle la crisis de la economía mundial capitalista. Los documentos más recientes se compilan en una subpágina especial en nuestro sitio web. https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-great-depression/. Ver, por ej., Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: “The Next Decade Will Be Very Painful”. A revealing internal memorandum by China’s Huawei Founder Ren Zhengfei on the Great Depression, 26 August 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-the-next-decade-will-be-very-painful/; por el mismo autor: Economía mundial: ¡Ya es oficial, comenzó la recesión mundial!, 30 de julio de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-it-s-official-the-recession-has-begun/#anker_1; Economía mundial: ha comenzado la segunda recesión. Las últimas cifras de un renombrado instituto económico burgués confirman el análisis de los marxistas, 29 de noviembre de 2021, Economía mundial: ¿Hacia una segunda recesión?, 2 de octubre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/#anker_1; ver los capítulos I y II en Perspectivas mundiales 2021-22: Entrando en una situación global prerrevolucionaria, 22 de agosto de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/#anker_1; ver el capítulo I y II en Michael Pröbsting: La Contrarrevolución del COVID-19: Qué es y Cómo Combatirla. Un análisis y una estrategia marxistas para la lucha revolucionaria, RCIT Books, abril de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/la-contrarrevoluci%C3%B3n-del-covid-19-qu%C3%A9-es-y-c%C3%B3mo-combatirla/; por el mismo autor: ha comenzado otra gran recesión de la economía mundial capitalista. La crisis económica es un factor importante en el dramático cambio actual de la situación mundial, 19 de octubre de 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/ha-comenzado-otra-gran-recesion-de-la-economia-mundial-capitalista/

[4] Ver sobre esto en, p. ej., Sanciones de chips: otro paso hacia la guerra entre EE. UU. y China. ¡Ni Washington ni Pekín! ¡Derrotismo revolucionario contra todas las Grandes Potencias imperialistas!, 25 de octubre de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/chip-sanctions-another-step-towards-war-between-u-s-and-china/#anker_1. Para obtener más documentos sobre la guerra comercial global, consulte la compilación de nuestros artículos en nuestro sitio web, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/. Ver también, p. ej., Michael Pröbsting: Less Than 9%. Many Western corporations continue to make business with Russia despite the official sanction policy, 11 February 2023, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/western-corporations-continue-to-make-business-with-russia/

[5] ¿Hacia un punto de inflexión en la guerra de Ucrania? Las tareas de los socialistas a la luz de las posibles líneas de desarrollo de la guerra de defensa nacional en combinación con la rivalidad interimperialista de las Grandes Potencias, 11 de marzo de 2023, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/towards-a-turning-point-in-the-ukraine-war/#anker_1; referimos a los lectores a una página especial en nuestro sitio donde se encuentran compilados más de 160 documentos de la CCRI sobre la Guerra de Ucrania y el actual conflicto entre la OTAN y Rusia: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/compilation-of-documents-on-nato-russia-conflict/. En particular referimos al manifiesto de la CCRI: Guerra de Ucrania: un punto de inflexión de importancia histórica mundial. Los socialistas deben combinar la defensa revolucionaria de Ucrania contra la invasión de Putin con la lucha internacionalista contra el imperialismo ruso, la OTAN y la UE., 1 de mayo de 2022, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/manifesto-ukraine-war-a-turning-point-of-world-historic-significance/#anker_3; Ver también: Manifiesto en el Primer Aniversario de la Guerra de Ucrania. ¡Victoria al heroico pueblo ucraniano! ¡Derrotar al imperialismo ruso! ¡Ningún apoyo al imperialismo de la OTAN!, 10 de febrero de 2023, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/manifesto-on-first-anniversary-of-ukraine-war/#anker_4

[6] La CCRI se ha ocupado en numerosas ocasiones de la rivalidad interimperialista de las Grandes Potencias. Véase, por ejemplo: Perspectivas mundiales 2021-22: Entrando en una situación global prerrevolucionaria, 22 de agosto de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/#anker_1; ver también nuestro libro por Michael Pröbsting: LIBRO: Anti-imperialismo en la Era de la Rivalidad de las Grandes Potencias. Los factores detrás de la Rivalidad acelerada entre los E.U, China, Rusia, la U.E y Japón. Una crítica del análisis de la izquierda y una semblanza de la Perspectiva Marxista, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/libro-anti-imperialismo-en-la-era-de-la-rivalidad-de-las-grandes-potencias/; ver también los siguientes trabajos del mismo autor: "Una pelea bastante buena". Encuentro EE.UU.-China en Alaska: Continúa la Guerra Fría Interimperialista, 23 de marzo de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/home/espa%C3%B1ol/encuentro-ee-uu-china-en-alaska-continua-la-guerra-fr%C3%ADa-interimperialista/; Siervos de dos amos. El estalinismo y la nueva guerra fría entre las grandes potencias imperialistas de Oriente y Occidente, 10 de julio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/#anker_9; pera más trabajos sobre este tema, ver estas sub-páginas: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ y https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

[7] International Monetary Fund: Global Debt Monitor 2022, December 2022, p. 6

“시장은 난폭하다”: 벼랑 끝에 선 은행과 주식시장

위기의 성격 정치적·경제적 결과에 대한 가지 노트

 

미하엘 프뢰브스팅, 혁명적 공산주의인터내셔널 동맹 (RCIT) 국제서기, 2023 3 15, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

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주식시장에 패닉이 퍼지고 있다. 며칠 사이에 미국 은행 개가 파산했다. 실리콘밸리은행(SVB) 시그니처은행이다. 오늘 거대 다국적 투자은행 크레디트스위스의 주가가 25% 가까이 폭락했다. 여기에 더해 아시아 주식시장도 지난 며칠 동안 휘청거렸다.

분명히 이것은 세계 금융시장 자체의 심각한 위기다. 특별히 무능한 은행에 의해 야기된 일시적인 흔들림이 아니다. 로이터통신이 은행자본가의 말을 빌려 이렇게 묘사한다. "시장은 난폭하다. 우리는 미국 은행의 문제에서 유럽 은행의 문제로 이동하고 있다. 타자가 크레디트스위스다."[1]

바이든 정부와 연준(FED) 1929 검은 금요일 식의 주식시장 붕괴를 피하기 위해 주말 동안 개입했다. 월스트리트 개장 직전, 미국 대통령은 백악관에서 TV 중계된 성명에서 다음과 같이 말했다. "미국인들은 우리의 은행 시스템이 안전하다는 것을 믿고 안심해도 됩니다. 예금은 안전합니다... 우리는 여기서 멈추지 않을 것이며, 필요한 모든 것을 것이라고 장담합니다."

이러한 개입이 즉각적인 붕괴를 피하는 도움이 되었지만, 그것은 미국 금융 부문의 근본적인 문제를 제거할 수는 없다. 월요일에 발표된 연구보고서는 미국 은행 시스템의 매우 취약한 특성을 지적한다. 파이낸셜 타임즈가 크게 보도한 연구보고서의 저자들은 미국 은행권 자산의 실제 시장 가치가 공식 장부 가치보다 2 달러 낮다고 결론내리고 있다.

"미국 은행 시스템의 자산 시장 가치는 장부 가치로 나타나는 것보다 2 달러 낮다. 이러한 손실액은 일부 미국 은행의 많은 무보험 예금액과 결합하여 은행들의 안정성을 해칠 있다. 보험에 가입하지 않은 예금자 가운데 절반의 예금자들만 인출을 결정하더라도 거의 190 은행이 보험 가입 예금자에게까지 손실을 미칠 위험이 있고 보험 가입 예금 3,000 달러가 위험에 처할 있다. 무보험 예금 인출이 소액의 부실채권 매도라도 유발할 경우 실질적으로 많은 은행들이 위험에 처하게 된다. 전반적으로 같은 조건을 놓고 최근 은행 자산 가치의 하락이 미국 은행 시스템의 취약성을 크게 증가시켜 무보험 예금자들의 뱅크런을 유발하고 있는 것으로 보인다."[2]

최대주주 (사우디 국립은행) 부실 은행에 이상의 자금을 투입하지 않겠다고 발표하면서 촉발된 크레디트스위스의 붕괴는 자본주의 금융시스템의 부패가 미국에 국한된 것이 아님을 말해준다.

우리는 다른 정부들과 중앙은행들도 1929 식의 시나리오를 피하기 위해 단호하게 개입할 것인지, 파산한 은행과 주주들을 구제하기 위한 결정에 그들이 얼마나 준비가 되어 있는지 (그리고 능력이 있는지) 보게 것이다.

적어도 지금으로서 분명한 것은 이것이 그냥 가버리지 않을 심각한 위기라는 것이다. 자본주의 정부들과 중앙은행들이 즉각적인 붕괴를 어떻게든 피한다 하더라도 그들은 불길한 날을 잠시 뒤로 미룬 것에 불과하다.

 

대공황기에 대한 맑스주의적 평가분석을 재차 확인해주다

글에서는 글로벌 금융부문 위기의 본질 결과에 대한 가지 언급으로 국한하겠다. 첫째, 이번 금융위기는 마른하늘의 날벼락이 아니다. 자본주의 세계경제가 2019 가을부터 시작한 대공황기에 여전히 갇혀 있다는 RCIT 분석을 확인시켜준다. 2020 하반기까지 지속된 1 침체 이후, 세계경제는 짧은 회복기를 보였다가 2021 말에 다른 침체 국면으로 들어갔다. 2 침체는 2020 국면과 비교할 보다 장기화된 성격을 가지고 있다. 우리는 주식시장 경색이 위기의 새로운 단계를 것인지 것이다. 간단히 말해서, 오늘 자본주의 세계경제는 (특히 2008 공황 이래로) 통상적인 호황·불황의 경기순환을 겪고 있지 않다. 장기적인 정체와 쇠퇴의 시기에 있다. 아직 우리가 숨통을 끊어놓지 못해서 지금 이어지고 있는 것일 , 이미 쇠퇴·사멸해가는 자본주의 오늘의 세계경제다.[3]

위기의 심각성을 고려할 , 사태는 거대한 정치적·경제적 결과를 초래할 수밖에 없다.