Capitalist Energy Crunch: Towards Dark Winter

On another important feature of the Great Depression of the capitalist world economy, its economic causes and its political consequences

An Essay (with 5 Figures and 1 Table) by Michael Pröbsting, International Secretary of the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 23 October 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

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In August, we warned against the official optimism of the bourgeois economists (shared by many left-wing commentators) who predicted a continuation of the cyclical upswing of the global economy. [1] Three weeks ago, we explained in more detail that the capitalist world economy is heading towards a second slump. [2] Meanwhile, many bourgeois economists have also become disillusioned. In fact, panic is spreading in these circles. A recent edition of The Economist – one of the smartest mouthpieces of the Western monopoly bourgeoisie – had a cover with the title “The shortage economy”, showing a picture with empty shelves in a supermarket. [3]

 

A key feature of the current shift towards a new slump is the energy crisis. Such crisis is evident in all parts of the world. In China, local authorities in at least 20 of the 31 provincial regions have been forced to resort to power rationing. According to the South China Morning Post, “two northeastern provinces, Liaoning and Jilin, have gone as far as cutting off power to traffic lights while also limiting the supply available to households, resulting in rolling blackouts in some places. And in Dongguan, an electronics manufacturing hub in Guangdong, some factories have been forced to limit production to just one or two days a week.[4] These problems are likely to continue. Board members of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China predict that electricity problems would last until March. [5]

 

A very similar situation exists in India. Coal makes up about 70% of the country’s electricity mix. 70 of its 135 power plants that are dependent on coal for electricity face a crisis. According to media reports, 20 have already shut and more might follow soon. Local authorities in “the national capital Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Kerala, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, to name a few – have already resorted to electricity cuts or are on the verge of announcing massive cuts in the electricity supply.[6]

 

Japan and South Korea are also facing energy problems. Korea Electric Power Corporation – South Korea’s largest electric utility – said it would raise prices for the first time in almost eight years. [7]

 

In Brazil, higher gas and oil prices – in combination with the worst drought in 91 years (resulting from the capitalist destruction of the climate) – has left hydropower plants unable to supply electricity. A massive rise of bills is the consequence in a profit-based economy. Hence, in the 12 months through September, electricity prices jumped 28.8% and cooking gas 34.7%, according to official data. [8]

 

The old imperialist countries in Europe and North America also face an energy crisis. Britain has been hit worst so far. Some of the country’s energy companies had to shut down operation due to high costs. Many petrol stations lack fuel and pictures with the sign “Sorry out of use” have made the headlines in recent weeks. The problem has been worsened by the lack of about 100,000 truck drivers, forcing the government to deploy soldiers in order to deliver fuel to petrol stations! [9]

 

But the crisis is also felt in other parts of the continent as European gas surged to a record 100 euros. Bloomberg reports: “Energy prices are rising from the U.S. to Europe and Asia as the economy recovers from the global pandemic and people return to the offices. Europe is struggling to secure enough gas and coal ahead of the winter, with rising prices forcing some of industrial giants from fertilizer producers CF Industries to Yara International ASA and chemicals giant BASF SE to shut plants or curtail output.[10]

 

As a consequence, European storage sites are just under 75% full, the lowest level for this time of year in more than a decade. “A cold winter in both Europe and Asia would risk European storage levels dropping to zero,” says Massimo Di Odoardo at research firm Wood Mackenzie. [11] Hence, experts warn that European countries may face power outages in the winter months. [12]

 

A report of Associated Press characterizes the situation in warning terms: “The world is gripped by an energy crunch — a fierce squeeze on some of the key markets for natural gas, oil and other fuels that keep the global economy running and the lights and heat on in homes. Heading into winter, that has meant higher utility bills, more expensive products and growing concern about how energy-consuming Europe and China will recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.[13]

 

The U.S. faces energy problems too. Puerto Rico, one of Washington’s colonies, has been hit worst. People face repeated power outages which have already provoked mass protests in San Juan, it’s capital city. [14]

 

 

 

What has triggered the Energy Crisis?

 

 

 

Many bourgeois commentators name specific local factors in order to explain the energy crisis. In Britain, it is often referred to the lack of lorry drivers who have been usually migrant workers from Eastern Europe and who have been kicked out after Brexit, when the UK left the EU. It is worth mentioning that truck drivers are also lacking in other European countries as many of them have also been kicked out last year under the cover of the pandemic.

 

In China, commentators refer to the fact that provincial authorities were permitted to raise the price of electricity by not more than 10%. (This has been changed to 20% a few days ago.) At the same time, the price of coal is not similarly regulated, and it recently hit record highs. As a result, power companies have been unwilling to produce adequate power, because it is simply less profitable. This creates a difficult situation since coal remains the dominant source, providing 68.5% of China’s power supply in 2020. [15]

 

All these local factors certainly play a role in causing the energy crunch. However, it is clear that if the same problem emerges at the same time in many different countries, there must be more fundamental, global causes for such a development.

 

Hence, other commentators point – with more justification – to global developments. As mentioned above, the shortage of (migrant) truck drivers in Europe – it is reported that about 500,000 are lacking – causes problems in transport. This is indeed a certain factor. It has been caused by the chauvinist response of the capitalist governments all over the world to the pandemic since spring 2020 which imposed a bonapartist policy against their own population and a chauvinist policy towards migrants and other countries. This is why, we note in passing, the RCIT characterizes the policy of the COVID Counterrevolution as chauvinist state bonapartism. [16]

 

Another factor which is often mentioned is the massive rise of energy prices. U.S. crude is over $83 per barrel, the highest in seven years, while international benchmark Brent is around $85. Prices for natural gas have dramatically increased which affects Europe particularly hard as it imports 90% of its supply (largely from Russia). Since the start of the year, prices have risen to five times – from about 19 euros per megawatt hour to nearly 100 euros.

 

All these factors certainly play a role in explaining the energy crisis. In fact, they demonstrate the anarchic nature of capitalism. This is a system driven by the profit interests of the capitalists and the power interest of the ruling political elite. If it helps to consolidate their political power in a period of deep crisis, these governments brutally wipe up chauvinism and kick out migrant workers. The same, we note in passing, was done by the Stalinist-capitalist regime in China and the right-wing Modi government in India. Both regimes expelled the “migrant” workers – coming from rural areas – from the cities within a few weeks.

 

Similarly, the authoritarian state-bonapartist response to the pandemic with its notorious Lockdown policy dramatically affects the transport sector. The Chinese regime, for example, repeatedly closes crucial ports because of a few cases. The has caused – and continues to cause – massive global supply-chain disruptions. “In June, Covid infections disrupted activity at the ports of Shenzhen and Guangzhou in China. Global container vessel congestion, including that stemming from the June stoppage in Shenzhen, has resulted in months-long overbooking of carriers and has driven up shipping rates. “It now costs nearly 10 times more to move a box from Asia to the U.S. West Coast than it did before the pandemic” reported global freight data provider Freight Waves.” The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates, rose to an 11-year high in August. [17] Figure 1 demonstrates the massive rise of commodity and shipping prices since the beginning of the recession.

 

 

 

Figure 1. Commodity and Shipping Prices, January 2018 to September 2021 [18]

 

 

 

 

Likewise, we see the anarchic nature of capitalism in the disruptions of global transport of goods. While empty containers pile up at the U.S. West Coast, Asian corporations are looking in vain for containers to export their goods. As a result, inventories in the manufacturing sector are declining, as Figure 2 shows.

 

 

 

Figure 2. Inventories in the Manufacturing Sector in the U.S., Germany and South Korea, January 2019 to September 2021 [19]

 

 

 

 

 

 

A socialist society would globally plan and coordinate the economy. Its decisions would be driven neither by profit interests of corporations nor by chauvinist interests of national states but by the global needs of the world population. Such a society would send containers where they are needed, would expand energy production capacities when they are needed, and would treat “foreign” workers not different from “domestic” workers.

 

 

 

What are the Deeper Causes of the Energy Crisis?

 

 

 

However, in order to fully understand its causes, we have to go deeper. Starting from the simple logic of the advocates of the “free market”, it is difficult to understand why there exists not enough power supply when energy is needed. Remember, we were all told that the market is based on supply and demand. So, obviously there is demand for energy but why is there not enough supply?!

 

The deeper reason for the energy crisis is the general and long-term decline of capitalism which has resulted in the tendency of the profit rate to fall. This basically means that, in the long run, the share of surplus value becomes smaller relative to the total capital invested in production (in machinery, raw materials, etc., as well as wages paid to workers). Therefore, the surplus value which can potentially be used for the reproduction of capital on an extended level becomes less and less. This inevitably leads to disruptions and crises and a historic tendency of decline as it becomes less and less profitable for the capitalists to invest in the expansion of production.

 

We have emphasized this point in various works so we will not go into detail at this point. [20] To give a brief empirical overview, we reproduce two figures published by the Marxist economist Michael Roberts. Figure 3 shows the development of the internal rate of return in the old imperialist states (U.S., Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Canada) from 1950 to 2017. Figure 4 reflects the development of global corporate profits from 1997 to 2019. Both figures confirm the Marxist thesis that the profit rate tends to fall in the long run.

 

 

 

Figure 3. Internal Rate of Return in the G7 States, 1950-2017 [21]

 

 

 

 

Figure 4. Global Corporate Profits, Annual Growth 1997-2019 [22]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Such a decline of the profit rate has, in turn, resulted in a declining tendency of capital accumulation. This means that the growth dynamic of investment, i.e. the expansion of capital stock, declines. For example, in the U.S. net non-residential fixed investment as a share of GDP has fallen by almost half in the past decades – from 4.1% in the 1970s and 1980s to 2.5% in the 2010s. [23] Another measure which expresses the same dynamic is the historic development of net investment as a share of the capital stock. As we can see in Figure 5, this share has been falling in the U.S. for a long time – a process “which limits the economy’s productive capacity”, as the official Economic Report of the President of the White House noted worryingly in its 2018 edition.

 

 

 

Figure 5. Net Investment as a Share of the Capital Stock in the U.S., 1945-2016 [24]

 

 

 

 

 

 

This tendency is also confirmed by a recently published survey of The Economist, which shows the long-term decline of investment of the 500 largest corporations in Europe und the U.S. While the annual growth of their capital expenditures was about 8,7% in 2001-10, this figure declined to 4.5% in 2010-19, i.e. nearly the half. [25]

 

This tendency of decline in growth of investment has been particularly relevant in the energy sector. An analyst of Goldman Sachs put it straight: “Gas, coal, oil, metals, mining – you pick – the old economy is significantly underinvested. We call it the revenge of the old economy. Poor returns saw capital redirected away from the old economy to the new economy.[26]

 

In other words, the capitalists think they can not make enough profit in these sectors if they would significantly increase their investment. Hence, they prefer to use their money in other sectors or speculate with it.

 

True, various governments have supported the creation of so-called “green energy” sector with financial aid, tax cuts, etc. But investment in such sectors has been limited since, again, capitalists invest only to that degree that they can expect sufficient profit. And since capitalist governments – particularly in the imperialist states – are suffering from a historically high and rising level of debts, their space for such state-capitalist interventions to boost the “green energy” sector is limited. (See Table 1)

 

 

 

Table 1. General Government Debt, 2016 to 2021 (Percent of GDP) [27]

 

Country                                               2016        2017      2018      2019       2020

 

Canada                                                  91.7        88.8        88.8        86.8        117.5

 

France                                                    98.0        98.3        98.0        97.6        115.1

 

Germany                                               69.3        65.0        61.6        59.2        69.1

 

Italy                                                       134.8     134.1     134.4     134.6      155.8

 

Japan                                                    232.5     231.4     232.5     235.4      254.1

 

United Kingdom                                 86.8        86.3        85.8        85.2        104.5

 

United States                                     106.9     106.0     107.1     108.5      133.9

 

China                                                    48.2        51.7        53.8        57.1        66.3

 

India                                                     68.9        69.7        70.4        74.1        89.6

 

Russian Federation                          14.8        14.3        13.6        13.8        19.3

 

Latin America                                     56.4        61.1        67.4        68.3        78.1

 

Saudi Arabia                                       13.1        17.2        19.0        22.8        32.5

 

South Africa                                        47.1        48.6        51.6        56.3        69.4

 

World                                                    83.2        82.0        82.3        83.6        98.6

 

 

 

As it is well known, we note in passing, this has also disastrous consequences for the climate which, in turn, also affects massively the economy (e.g. heating waves as well as harsh winter increase the energy costs; floods, hurricanes etc. also cause massive social and economic damage).

 

 

 

Economic and Political Consequences of the “Dark Winter”

 

 

 

We shall conclude this essay by briefly pointing to the most important economic and political consequences and the resultant tasks for revolutionaries.

 

1.            First, it is clear that the energy crisis will have massive consequences for the capitalist world economy. One does not need to be an Einstein to understand that repeated power cuts and rising prices will reduce production. This is even more the case since, as we have pointed out in our past articles, the energy crisis is not an isolated phenomenon but develops in combination with other symptoms of the capitalist crisis (increasing debts, transportation disruption, etc.). In short, we repeat our warning that the capitalist world economy remains stuck in the Great Depression which started in autumn 2019. After the first slump in spring 2020, it is now heading for a second one.

 

2.            A second slump will have also dramatic political consequences. It is quite likely that such an energy crisis will provoke a “Dark Winter”. True, it is winter only for the northern half of the planet. However, a heating wave in the southern half will equally have massive negative effects for the energy crisis, i.e. it will also result in power outages and price increases. People will be forced to live in cold (or very hot) houses, TV, internet and radio will be disrupted, … in short, this crisis will have immediate and drastic effects not only for corporations but also for the popular masses. In our recently published RCIT Manifesto, we characterized the present state of decay of bourgeois class society as “catastrophic capitalism”. [28] The current events are a powerful confirmation of our assessment!

 

3.            This will inevitable provoke massive political crisis in many countries. It will undermine the credibility of governments. It will drive people on the streets protesting. Hence, it is likely that such a “Dark Winter” will provoke pre-revolutionary and revolutionary crisis in various countries.

 

4.            Faced with such dangerous developments, capitalist governments will do whatever possible in order to suppress such unrest and to deflect public attention. There are several realistic possibilities how they could do this. First, they could declare another COVID emergency and claim that new Lockdown or other restrictions have to be imposed. Of course, the real purpose of such actions would not be to overcome the pandemic but rather to control the population in a situation which is very dangerous for governments. This was, as we have pointed out repeatedly, also the real purpose of the Lockdown policy in spring 2020 as many regimes – from China to France and Chile – were faced with popular uprisings since summer 2019. [29]

 

5.            Furthermore, in addition to the pandemic, governments will also try to deflect public attention by provoking tensions with other states. As the RCIT has pointed out in various documents, several regions in the world are already riven with tensions between capitalist states. In the past years, we have seen a massive acceleration of rivalry between the imperialist Great Powers. [30] The most important of these conflicts is the Cold War between the imperialist Great Powers U.S. and China. [31] Likewise, the tensions between the Western powers and Russia have escalated recently. [32] Add to this – to name just a few – the tensions in the Middle East (e.g. Israel-Iran; Algeria-Morocco, Turkey-Syria), in Eastern Africa (e.g. Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia), in the Southern Caucasus where just recently a war took place between Armenia and Azerbaijan, or in South Asia (e.g. China-India, India-Pakistan, Tajikistan-Afghanistan). Finally, such an environment of acute crisis and chaos reinforces the conditions for coup d'états and civil wars (e.g. Tunisia, Ethiopia, Sudan, Mali, Guinea).

 

 

 

Revolutionary Strategy

 

 

 

6.            In short, “Dark Winter” creates the condition for a new phase of war and revolution. The RCIT calls all authentic revolutionaries to prepare for such a period! This means, on one hand, advocating an unwavering line of revolutionary struggle. Revolutionaries must oppose all economic and authoritarian attacks which the ruling class will launch under the cover of “Dark Winter” and advocate the methods of mass struggles and the self-organization of the workers and oppressed. In the face of the COVID Counterrevolution, Marxists have to oppose it and all related attacks (attack on democratic rights, Lockdowns, surveillance, enforced vaccination, etc.). They have to support strikes and demonstrations against such attacks (e.g. in Italy and France). [33] They need to oppose all forms of militarism and chauvinism. In the face of inter-imperialist conflicts, they have to take the position of revolutionary defeatism, i.e. opposing both sides and trying to utilize such conflicts in order to weaken and overthrow the imperialist rulers of both camps. The same applies to reactionary conflicts between semi-colonial capitalist states. In wars between an oppressor and an oppressed people or in the case of a reactionary coup d'état or civil war, revolutionaries have to take the side of the oppressed (without lending political support for their non-revolutionary leadership). On the other hand, revolutionaries need to intervene practically – or play an initiating role wherever possible – in popular protests against the attacks of the ruling class resulting from the “Dark Winter”. In short, the current crisis of capitalism poses the task to transform the “Dark Winter” for the popular masses into a “Dark Winter” for the capitalist ruling class!

 

7.            Revolutionaries need to combine the political and practical intervention in such mass struggles with a bold program for socialist revolution. Such a program needs to advocate forms of mass struggles – mass demonstrations, strikes, general strike, etc. – as well as forms of mass self-organization – councils of action, popular assemblies, armed self-defense units, etc. Marxists have to explain that it is crucial to combine the struggles of today with the strategic task to break up the power of the ruling class (workers control in enterprises, popular councils and militias, workers and popular governments). Catastrophic capitalism must be overthrown – not only in one country but globally. The current events are a powerful demonstration that the burning problems of humanity can not be solved in a single country alone. They can only be tackled on a global scale, by a world federation of workers and peasants’ republics which elaborate a joint international plan for production, transport, limiting and overcoming the climate change and so on.

 

8.            Trotsky once noted: The great historical strength of the (Left) Opposition, despite its apparent weakness, lies in the fact that it keeps its fingers on the pulse of world historical processes, that it clearly perceives the dynamics of class forces, that it foresees the future and consciously prepares for it.” [34] This is indeed the task of revolutionaries today and the RCIT – as well as other authentic revolutionaries – have operated with such a perspective for some time. The task now is to utilize our programmatic strength to advance the creation of a Revolutionary World Party! We repeat the conclusions of our RCIT Manifesto: If you agree with our goals, join us! Forward in the struggle for socialist world revolution! Let the fire of revolution burn down catastrophic capitalism!

 



[1] See Chapter II in RCIT: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/

[2] Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/; by the same author: The Real Estate Bubble in Capitalist China. Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic make global investors tremble and for good reasons, 6 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/the-real-estate-bubble-in-capitalist-china/

[3] The Economist, October 9th – 15th 2021

[4] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis: why is it happening, how bad is it, and what if it continues into the freezing winter months? 10 October 2021, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3151710/chinas-power-crisis-why-it-happening-how-bad-it-and-what-if?utm_source=rss_feed

[5] Keith Bradsher: China’s Power Problems Expose a Strategic Weakness, 13 October 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/13/business/china-electricity-shortage.html

[6] Anil Sharma: India faces a crisis as power shortage worsens, 13 October 2021, https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/india-faces-a-crisis-as-power-shortage-worsens/

[7] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4 Oct, 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

[8] David Biller and Diane Jeantet: Brazil’s inflation hits double digits, punishing the poor, Associated Press, October 8, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/business-caribbean-brazil-rio-de-janeiro-prices-2b300ff78c5ae0003903a036b155a319

[9] James Ludden: UK government clears army to begin petrol deliveries from Monday, Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/uk-government-clears-army-to-begin-petrol-deliveries-from-monday

[10] Anna Shiryaevskaya, Vanessa Dezem and Elena Mazneva: Energy crunch: Natural gas prices in Europe hit record 100 euros, Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/energy-crunch-natural-gas-prices-in-europe-hit-record-100-euro

[11] David Mchugh, Colleen Barry, Joe Mcdonald and Tatiana Pollastri: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches, 2021-10-19, https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-business-russia-health-70b97e36da53f62eba588b44f2b394bc

[12] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4 Oct, 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

[13] David Mchugh et al: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches

[14] Sam Carliner: Protests Erupt in Puerto Rico to Fight a Worsening Energy Crisis, Left Voice, October 17, 2021, https://www.leftvoice.org/protests-erupt-in-puerto-rico-to-fight-a-worsening-energy-crisis/

[15] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis

[16] The RCIT has analysed the COVID-19 counterrevolution extensively since its beginning. Starting from 2 February 2020 we have published nearly 100 pamphlets, essays, articles and statements plus a book which are all compiled at a special sub-page on our website: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. In particular we refer readers to the RCIT Manifesto: COVID-19: A Cover for a Major Global Counterrevolutionary Offensive. We are at a turning point in the world situation as the ruling classes provoke a war-like atmosphere in order to legitimize the build-up of chauvinist state-bonapartist regimes, 21 March 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-a-cover-for-a-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/. See also a new RCIT Manifesto: “Green Pass” & Compulsory Vaccinations: A New Stage in the COVID Counterrevolution. Down with the chauvinist-bonapartist police & surveillance state – defend democratic rights! No to health policy in the service of the capitalist monopolies – expand the public health sector under workers and popular control! 29 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/; In addition, we draw attention to our book by Michael Pröbsting: The COVID-19 Global Counterrevolution: What It Is and How to Fight It. A Marxist analysis and strategy for the revolutionary struggle, RCIT Books, April 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/. See also our very first article on this issue by Almedina Gunić: Coronavirus: "I am not a Virus"... but WE will be the Cure! The chauvinist campaign behind the “Wuhan Coronavirus” hysteria and the revolutionary answer, 2 February 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/wuhan-virus/; Michael Pröbsting: The Second Wave of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution. On the ruling class strategy in the current conjuncture, its inner contradictions and the perspectives of the workers and popular resistance, 20 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-second-wave-of-the-covid-19-counterrevolution/; by the same author: The Police and Surveillance State in the Post-Lockdown Phase. A global review of the ruling class’s plans of expanding the bonapartist state machinery amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 21 May 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/police-and-surveillance-state-in-post-lockdown-phase/; COVID-19: The Great Barrington Declaration is indeed Great! Numerous medical scientists protest against the reactionary lockdown policy, 11 October 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-the-great-barrington-declaration-is-indeed-great/; Michael Pröbsting: COVID-19: The Current and Historical Roots of Bourgeois Lockdown “Socialism”. Police State and Universal Basic Income are key elements of the new version of reformist “War Socialism” of 1914, 19 December 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/covid-19-the-current-and-historical-roots-of-bourgeois-lockdown-socialism/. See also a number of Spanish-language articles of our Argentinean comrades: Juan Giglio: La izquierda de la "Big Pharma", dejó de defender las libertades, 1.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/la-izquierda-de-la-big-pharma-dejo-de.html; Juan Giglio: ¿Por qué la izquierda no cuestiona las políticas de la OMS? 8.9.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/por-que-la-izquierda-no-cuestiona-las.html

[17] Pierre Briançon: A Chinese Port Partially Closed Because of a Covid Infection. What to Know, 13 August 2021, https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-ningbo-zhoushan-meishan-port-closure-51628879754

[18] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21 September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), p. 11

[19] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21 September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), p. 10

[20] See on this e.g. See on this e.g. Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, Chapter I, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/; by the same author: The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, RCIT Pamphlet, May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; World Perspectives 2018: A World Pregnant with Wars and Popular Uprisings. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, RCIT Books, Vienna 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2018/; The Great Robbery of the South. Continuity and Changes in the Super-Exploitation of the Semi-Colonial World by Monopoly Capital. Consequences for the Marxist Theory of Imperialism, RCIT Books, Vienna 2013, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/great-robbery-of-the-south/; World economy – heading to a new upswing? (2009), in: Fifth International, Volume 3, No. 3, Autumn 2009, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-economy-crisis-2009/; Imperialism, Globalization and the Decline of Capitalism (2008), in: Richard Brenner, Michael Pröbsting, Keith Spencer: The Credit Crunch - A Marxist Analysis, London 2008, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-and-globalization/; RCIT: Advancing Counterrevolution and Acceleration of Class Contradictions Mark the Opening of a New Political Phase. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries (January 2016), Chapter II and III, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 46, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2016/.

[21] Michael Roberts: Profitability, investment and the pandemic, 17 May 2020, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2020/05/17/profitability-investment-and-the-pandemic/

[22] Ibid

[23] See e.g. Thomas J. Duesterberg, Donald A. Norman: Why Is Capital Investment Consistently Weak in the 21st Century U.S. Economy, The Aspen Institute, April 2014, pp. 4-7; Oren Cass: We’re Just Speculating Here… The Rise of Wall Street and the Fall of American Investment, 25 March 2021, https://americancompass.org/essays/speculating-wall-street-investment/

[24] Economic Report of the President, February 2018, Washington, p. 399

[25] The Economist: Fossil fuels. Can’t live without them. Yet, 9 October 2021, p. 71

[26] Quoted in Kaelyn Forde: China power cuts, UK petrol woes: Why is there an energy crunch? 29 September 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/29/china-power-cuts-uk-petrol-woes-why-is-there-an-energy-crunch

[27] IMF: Fiscal Monitor. Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, October 2021, Washington, p. 5

[28] RCIT: The Fire of Revolution Will Burn Down Catastrophic Capitalism! Manifesto for the Liberation Struggle of the Workers and Oppressed Document adopted by the III. Congress of the RCIT, April 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit-fire-manifesto-2021/

[29] For an overview and a characterization of these events see, in addition the relevant statements on the individual countries, Michael Pröbsting: Are We Nearing a New “68 Moment”? A massive upsurge of global class struggle in the midst of a dramatic shift in the world situation 22 October 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/are-we-nearing-a-new-68-moment/

[30] The RCIT has dealt on numerous occasions with the inter-imperialist rivalry of the Great Powers. See e.g. the RCIT document: World Perspectives 2021-22: Entering a Pre-Revolutionary Global Situation, 22 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; see also: RCIT: The Meaning of the AUKUS Pact. The U.S. escalates the inter-imperialist Cold War against China and provokes the EU, 18 September 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/; Russia Fires Warning Shots against UK Warship in the Black Sea. Down with Cold Warmongering! No support for any imperialist Great Power – neither UK, US nor Russia! 24 June 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/; see also the following two pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: “A Really Good Quarrel”. US-China Alaska Meeting: The Inter-Imperialist Cold War Continues, 23 March 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/; Servants of Two Masters. Stalinism and the New Cold War between Imperialist Great Powers in East and West, 10 July 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/; for more works on this issue see these sub-pages: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

[31] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in China and its transformation into a Great Power. See on this e.g. our book by Michael Pröbsting: Anti-Imperialism in the Age of Great Power Rivalry. The Factors behind the Accelerating Rivalry between the U.S., China, Russia, EU and Japan. A Critique of the Left’s Analysis and an Outline of the Marxist Perspective, RCIT Books, Vienna 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/. See also by the same author an essay published in the second edition of The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (edited by Immanuel Ness and Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; How is it possible that some Marxists still Doubt that China has Become Capitalist? (A Critique of the PTS/FT), An analysis of the capitalist character of China’s State-Owned Enterprises and its political consequences, 18 September 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Unable to See the Wood for the Trees (PTS/FT and China). Eclectic empiricism and the failure of the PTS/FT to recognize the imperialist character of China, 13 August 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/. See many more RCIT documents at a special sub-page on the RCIT’s website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.

[32] The RCIT has published numerous documents about capitalism in Russia and its rise to an imperialist power. See on this e.g. several pamphlets by Michael Pröbsting: The Peculiar Features of Russian Imperialism. A Study of Russia’s Monopolies, Capital Export and Super-Exploitation in the Light of Marxist Theory, 10 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/; Russia and China: Neither Capitalist nor Great Powers? A Reply to the PO/CRFI and their Revisionist Whitewashing of Chinese and Russian imperialism, 28 November 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/russia-and-china-neither-capitalist-nor-great-powers-reply-to-po-crfi/; The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, 27 May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism. Another Reply to Our Critics Who Deny Russia’s Imperialist Character, August 2014, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-theory-and-russia/; Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18 March 2014, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 21, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialist-russia/. See various other RCIT documents on this issue at a special sub-page on the RCIT’s website: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/

[33] See on this e.g. RCIT: Italy: Dockers Prepare for Strike against the Green Pass! Solidarity with this important struggle against the COVID Counterrevolution! 13 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/italian-dockers-strike-against-green-pass/; General Strike in Italy on 11 October: An Important Step Forward! Militant unions of the workers vanguard initiate successful mass protests, 12 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/general-strike-in-italy-on-11-october-an-important-step-forward/; Green Pass in Italy: International Dockworkers Council Supports the Struggle of the Port Workers! 20 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/idc-supports-struggle-of-italian-port-workers-against-green-pass/; see also Michael Pröbsting: Why Do Some Socialists Refuse to Support the Mass Struggle against the “Green Pass”? PTS/FT, PSTU/LIT, IMT and PCL in the face of the latest stage of the COVID Counterrevolution, 15 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/why-do-some-socialists-refuse-to-support-the-mass-struggle-against-the-green-pass

[34] Leon Trotsky: Reply to an Ultimatum (December 1928), in: Leon Trotsky: The Challenge of the Left Opposition (1928-29), Pathfinder Press, New York 1981, p. 364

 

Crisis energética capitalista: hacia un invierno oscuro

Sobre otra característica importante de la Gran Depresión de la economía mundial capitalista, sus causas económicas y sus consecuencias políticas

 

Un ensayo (con 5 figuras y 1 tabla) de Michael Pröbsting, secretario internacional de la Corriente Comunista Revolucionaria Internacional (CCRI), 23 de octubre de 2021, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

Nota del Comité Editorial: El siguiente documento contiene 5 figuras. Estas cifras solo se pueden ver en la versión pdf del documento siguiente por razones técnicas.

 

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Capitalist Energy Crunch_SPA.pdf
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En agosto advertimos contra el optimismo oficial de los economistas burgueses (compartido por muchos comentaristas de izquierda) que predijeron una continuación del repunte cíclico de la economía global. [1] Hace tres semanas, explicamos con más detalle que la economía mundial capitalista se encamina hacia una segunda recesión. [2] Mientras tanto, muchos economistas burgueses también se han desilusionado. De hecho, el pánico se está extendiendo en estos círculos. Una edición reciente de The Economist, uno de los portavoces más inteligentes de la burguesía monopolista occidental, tenía una portada con el título “La economía de la escasez”, que mostraba una imagen con estantes vacíos en un supermercado. [3]

 

Una característica clave del cambio actual hacia una nueva recesión es la crisis energética. Esta crisis es evidente en todas partes del mundo. En China, las autoridades locales de al menos 20 de las 31 regiones provinciales se han visto obligadas a recurrir al racionamiento eléctrico. Según el South China Morning Post, “dos provincias del noreste, Liaoning y Jilin, han llegado a cortar el suministro eléctrico a los semáforos y limitar el suministro disponible para los hogares, lo que ha provocado apagones continuos en algunos lugares. Y en Dongguan, un centro de fabricación de productos electrónicos en Guangdong, algunas fábricas se han visto obligadas a limitar la producción a solo uno o dos días a la semana.” [4] Es probable que estos problemas continúen. Los miembros de la junta de laLa Cámara de Comercio de la Unión Europea en China predice que los problemas de electricidad durarán hasta marzo. [5]

 

En la India existe una situación muy similar. El carbón constituye alrededor del 70% del mix eléctrico del país. 70 de sus 135 centrales eléctricas que dependen del carbón para la electricidad se enfrentan a una crisis. Según informes de los medios, 20 ya han cerrado y podrían seguir más pronto. Las autoridades locales en “la capital nacional, Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Kerala, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh y Tamil Nadu, por nombrar algunos, ya han recurrido a cortes de electricidad o están a punto de anunciar cortes en el suministro eléctrico.” [6]

 

Japón y Corea del Sur también se enfrentan a problemas energéticos. Korea Electric Power Corporation, la empresa eléctrica más grande de Corea del Sur, dijo que aumentaría los precios por primera vez en casi ocho años. [7]

 

En Brasil, el aumento de los precios del gas y el petróleo, en combinación con la peor sequía en 91 años (resultante de la destrucción capitalista del clima), ha dejado a las centrales hidroeléctricas sin poder suministrar electricidad. Un aumento masivo de las facturas es la consecuencia de una economía basada en las ganancias. Así, en los 12 meses hasta septiembre, los precios de la electricidad subieron un 28,8% y el gas de cocina un 34,7%, según datos oficiales. [8]

 

Los viejos países imperialistas de Europa y América del Norte también enfrentan una crisis energética. Gran Bretaña ha sido la más afectada hasta ahora. Algunas de las empresas energéticas del país tuvieron que cerrar sus operaciones debido a los altos costos. Muchas gasolineras carecen de combustible y las imágenes con el letrero “Lo sentimos, fuera de uso” han aparecido en los titulares en las últimas semanas. El problema se ha agravado por la falta de unos 100.000 camioneros, lo que ha obligado al gobierno a desplegar soldados para llevar combustible a las gasolineras. [9]

 

Pero la crisis también se siente en otras partes del continente, ya que el gas europeo subió a un récord de 100 euros. Bloomberg informa: “Los precios de la energía están aumentando desde los EE. UU. Hacia Europa y Asia a medida que la economía se recupera de la pandemia global y la gente regresa a las oficinas. Europa está luchando para asegurar suficiente gas y carbón antes del invierno, con el aumento de los precios que obliga a algunos de los gigantes industriales, desde los productores de fertilizantes CF Industries hasta Yara International ASA y el gigante químico BASF SE, a cerrar plantas o reducir la producción.” [10]

 

Como consecuencia, los sitios de almacenamiento europeos están poco menos del 75% de su capacidad, el nivel más bajo para esta época del año en más de una década. “Un invierno frío tanto en Europa como en Asia correría el riesgo de que los niveles de almacenamiento europeos cayeran a cero”, dice Massimo Di Odoardo, de la firma de investigación Wood Mackenzie. [11] Por lo tanto, los expertos advierten que los países europeos pueden enfrentar cortes de energía en los meses de invierno. [12]

 

Un informe de Associated Press caracteriza la situación en términos de advertencia: “El mundo está preso de una crisis energética: una fuerte presión sobre algunos de los mercados clave de gas natural, petróleo y otros combustibles que mantienen la economía mundial en funcionamiento y las luces y el calor en los hogares. De cara al invierno, eso ha significado facturas de servicios públicos más altas, productos más caros y una creciente preocupación sobre cómo Europa y China, consumidoras de energía, se recuperarán de la pandemia de COVID-19.” [13]

 

Estados Unidos también enfrenta problemas energéticos. Puerto Rico, una de las colonias de Washington, ha sido la más afectada. La gente enfrenta repetidos cortes de energía que ya han provocado protestas masivas en San Juan, su capital. [14]

 

 

 

¿Qué ha desencadenado la crisis energética?

 

 

 

Muchos comentaristas burgueses nombran factores locales específicos para explicar la crisis energética. En Gran Bretaña, a menudo se hace referencia a la falta de conductores de camiones que suelen ser trabajadores migrantes de Europa del Este y que han sido expulsados después del Brexit, cuando el Reino Unido abandonó la UE. Vale la pena mencionar que los conductores de camiones también faltan en otros países europeos, ya que muchos de ellos también fueron expulsados el año pasado al amparo de la pandemia.

 

En China, los comentaristas se refieren al hecho de que se permitió a las autoridades provinciales aumentar el precio de la electricidad en no más del 10%. (Esto se cambió al 20% hace unos días). Al mismo tiempo, el precio del carbón no está regulado de manera similar y recientemente alcanzó niveles récord. Como resultado, las compañías eléctricas no han estado dispuestas a producir la energía adecuada, simplemente porque es menos rentable. Esto crea una situación difícil, ya que el carbón sigue siendo la fuente dominante, proporcionando el 68,5% del suministro eléctrico de China en 2020. [15]

 

Todos estos factores locales ciertamente juegan un papel en la causa de la crisis energética. Sin embargo, está claro que si el mismo problema surge al mismo tiempo en muchos países diferentes, debe haber causas globales más fundamentales para tal desarrollo.

 

Por lo tanto, otros comentaristas apuntan, con más justificación, a desarrollos globales. Como se mencionó anteriormente, la escasez de conductores de camiones (migrantes) en Europa (se informa que faltan alrededor de 500.000) causa problemas en el transporte. De hecho, este es un factor determinado. Ha sido provocado por la respuesta chovinista de los gobiernos capitalistas de todo el mundo a la pandemia desde la primavera de 2020 que impuso una política bonapartista contra su propia población y una política chovinista hacia los migrantes y otros países. Por eso, notamos de pasada, la CCRI caracteriza la política de la Contrarrevolución del COVID como bonapartismo chovinista de Estado. [16]

 

Otro factor que se menciona a menudo es el aumento masivo de los precios de la energía. El crudo estadounidense supera los 83 dólares por barril, el nivel más alto en siete años, mientras que el Brent de referencia internacional ronda los 85 dólares. Los precios del gas natural han aumentado drásticamente, lo que afecta especialmente a Europa, ya que importa el 90% de su suministro (principalmente de Rusia). Desde principios de año, los precios se han multiplicado por cinco: de unos 19 euros por megavatio hora a casi 100 euros.

 

Sin duda, todos estos factores influyen en la explicación de la crisis energética. De hecho, demuestran la naturaleza anárquica del capitalismo. Este es un sistema impulsado por los intereses de lucro de los capitalistas y los intereses de poder de la élite política gobernante. Si les ayuda a consolidar su poder político en un período de profunda crisis, estos gobiernos arrasan brutalmente con el chovinismo y expulsan a los trabajadores migrantes. Lo mismo, notamos de pasada, fue hecho por el régimen capitalista estalinista en China y el gobierno de derecha Modi en India. Ambos regímenes expulsaron a los trabajadores “migrantes”, provenientes de áreas rurales, de las ciudades en unas pocas semanas.

 

De manera similar, la respuesta estatal autoritaria y bonapartista a la pandemia con su notoria política de bloqueo afecta dramáticamente al sector del transporte. El régimen chino, por ejemplo, cierra repetidamente puertos cruciales debido a algunos casos. Ha causado, y continúa causando, interrupciones masivas de la cadena de suministro global. “En junio, las infecciones por Covid interrumpieron la actividad en los puertos de Shenzhen y Guangzhou en China. La congestión global de los buques portacontenedores, incluida la derivada de la paralización de junio en Shenzhen, ha provocado un overbooking de los transportistas durante meses y ha elevado las tarifas de envío.” Ahora cuesta casi 10 veces más mover una caja de Asia a la costa oeste de Estados Unidos que antes de la pandemia”, informó el proveedor global de datos de carga Freight Waves” El Baltic Dry Index, una medida de las tarifas de envío, subió a un máximo de 11 años en agosto. [17] La Figura 1 demuestra el aumento masivo de los precios de los productos básicos y del envío desde el comienzo de la recesión.

 

 

 

Figura 1. Precios de productos básicos y envío, enero de 2018 a septiembre de 2021 [18]

 

 

 

 

 

Asimismo, vemos la naturaleza anárquica del capitalismo en las interrupciones del transporte global de mercancías. Mientras los contenedores vacíos se acumulan en la costa oeste de Estados Unidos, las corporaciones asiáticas buscan en vano contenedores para exportar sus mercancías. Como resultado, los inventarios en el sector manufacturero están disminuyendo, como muestra la Figura 2.

 

 

 

Figura 2. Inventarios en el sector manufacturero en los EE. UU., Alemania y Corea del Sur, de enero de 2019 a septiembre de 2021 [19]

 

 

 

Una sociedad socialista planificaría y coordinaría globalmente la economía. Sus decisiones no serían impulsadas ni por los intereses de lucro de las corporaciones ni por los intereses chovinistas de los estados nacionales, sino por las necesidades globales de la población mundial. Una sociedad así enviaría contenedores donde se necesiten, ampliaría las capacidades de producción de energía cuando se necesiten y trataría a los trabajadores "extranjeros" de manera no diferente a los trabajadores "domésticos".

 

 

 

¿Cuáles son las causas más profundas de la crisis energética?

 

 

 

Sin embargo, para comprender plenamente sus causas, tenemos que profundizar más. Partiendo de la simple lógica de los defensores del “mercado libre”, es difícil entender por qué no existe suficiente suministro eléctrico cuando se necesita energía. Recuerde, a todos nos dijeron que el mercado se basa en la oferta y la demanda. Entonces, obviamente hay demanda de energía, pero ¿por qué no hay suficiente oferta?

 

La razón más profunda de la crisis energética es el declive general y a largo plazo del capitalismo, que ha dado lugar a una tendencia a la baja de la tasa de beneficio. Esto básicamente significa que, a largo plazo, la participación de la plusvalía se reduce en relación con el capital total invertido en la producción (en maquinaria, materias primas, etc., así como los salarios pagados a los trabajadores). Por lo tanto, la plusvalía que potencialmente puede usarse para la reproducción de capital en un nivel extendido se vuelve cada vez menor. Esto conduce inevitablemente a interrupciones y crisis y a una tendencia histórica de declive a medida que se vuelve cada vez menos rentable para los capitalistas invertir en la expansión de la producción.

 

Hemos enfatizado este punto en varios trabajos por lo que no entraremos en detalles en este punto. [20] Para dar una breve descripción empírica, reproducimos dos cifras publicadas por el economista marxista Michael Roberts. La Figura 3 muestra la evolución de la tasa interna de rendimiento en los viejos estados imperialistas (EE.UU., Japón, Alemania, Francia, Reino Unido, Italia y Canadá) desde 1950 hasta 2017. La Figura 4 refleja la evolución de las ganancias corporativas globales de 1997 a 2019. Ambas cifras confirman la tesis marxista de que la tasa de ganancia tiende a caer a largo plazo.

 

 

 

Figura 3. Tasa interna de rendimiento en los estados del G7, 1950-2017 [21]

 

 

 

 

 

Figura 4. Beneficios corporativos mundiales, crecimiento anual 1997-2019 [22]

 

 

 

Tal declive de la tasa de ganancia, a su vez, ha resultado en una tendencia a la baja de la acumulación de capital. Esto significa que la dinámica de crecimiento de la inversión, es decir, la expansión del stock de capital, disminuye. Por ejemplo, en los EE. UU., La inversión fija no residencial neta como porcentaje del PIB se ha reducido casi a la mitad en las últimas décadas: del 4,1% en las décadas de 1970 y 1980 al 2,5% en la de 2010. [23] Otra medida que expresa la misma dinámica es la evolución histórica de la inversión neta como participación del capital social. Como podemos ver en la Figura 5, esta participación ha estado cayendo en los EE. UU. Durante mucho tiempo, un proceso " que limita la capacidad productiva de la economía ", como el Informe Económico Oficial del Presidente de la Casa Blanca señaló de manera preocupante en su edición de 2018.

 

 

 

Figura 5. Inversión neta como participación del capital social en EE. UU., 1945-2016 [24]

 


 

 

 

Esta tendencia también se ve confirmada por una encuesta publicada recientemente por The Economist, que muestra la disminución a largo plazo de la inversión de las 500 corporaciones más grandes de Europa y los EE. UU. Mientras que el crecimiento anual de sus gastos de capital fue de aproximadamente el 8,7% en 2001- 10, esta cifra se redujo al 4,5% en 2010-19, es decir, casi la mitad. [25]

 

Esta tendencia a la baja en el crecimiento de la inversión ha sido particularmente relevante en el sector energético. Un analista de Goldman Sachs lo expresó claramente: “Gas, carbón, petróleo, metales, minería - usted elige - la vieja economía está significativamente subinvertida. Lo llamamos la venganza de la vieja economía. Los bajos rendimientos hicieron que el capital se redirigiera de la vieja economía a la nueva economía.” [26]

 

En otras palabras, los capitalistas piensan que no pueden obtener suficientes ganancias en estos sectores si aumentan significativamente su inversión. De ahí que prefieran utilizar su dinero en otros sectores o especular con él.

 

Es cierto que varios gobiernos han apoyado la creación del llamado sector de "energía verde" con ayuda financiera, recortes de impuestos, etc. Pero la inversión en tales sectores ha sido limitada ya que, nuevamente, los capitalistas invierten solo en la medida en que pueden esperar ganancias suficientes. Y dado que los gobiernos capitalistas -particularmente en los estados imperialistas- están sufriendo de un nivel históricamente alto y creciente de deudas, su espacio para tales intervenciones capitalistas de estado para impulsar el sector de la “energía verde” es limitado. (Ver tabla 1)

 

 

 

Tabla 1. Deuda de las administraciones públicas, 2016 a 2021 (porcentaje del PIB) [27]

 

País                                                       2016      2017      2018      2019       2020

 

Canadá                                                 91,7        88,8        88,8        86,8        117,5

 

Francia                                                 98,0        98,3        98,0        97,6        115,1

 

Alemania                                             69,3        65,0        61,6        59,2        69,1

 

Italia                                                    134,8     134,1     134,4     134,6      155,8

 

Japón                                                   232,5     231,4     232,5     235,4      254,1

 

Reino Unido                                       86,8        86,3        85,8        85,2     104,5

 

Estados Unidos                                106,9     106,0     107,1     108,5      133,9

 

China                                                   48,2        51,7        53,8        57,1        66,3

 

India                                                     68,9        69,7        70,4        74,1        89,6

 

Federación de Rusia                        14,8        14,3        13,6        13,8        19,3

 

América Latina                                  56,4        61,1        67,4        68,3        78,1

 

Arabia Saudita                                  13,1        17,2        19,0        22,8        32,5

 

Sudáfrica                                             47,1        48,6        51,6        56,3        69,4

 

Mundo                                                 83,2        82,0        82,3        83,6        98,6

 

 

 

Como es bien sabido, notamos de pasada, esto también tiene consecuencias desastrosas para el clima que, a su vez, también afecta masivamente la economía (por ejemplo, las olas de calor y el duro invierno aumentan los costos de energía; las inundaciones, los huracanes, etc. también causan daños sociales y económicos masivos).

 

 

 

Consecuencias económicas y políticas del "invierno oscuro

 

 

 

Concluimos este ensayo señalando brevemente las consecuencias económicas y políticas más importantes y las tareas resultantes para los revolucionarios.

 

1.            Primero, está claro que la crisis energética tendrá consecuencias masivas para la economía mundial capitalista. No es necesario ser un Einstein para comprender que los repetidos cortes de energía y el aumento de los precios reducirán la producción. Esto es aún más cierto ya que, como hemos señalado en nuestros artículos anteriores, la crisis energética no es un fenómeno aislado, sino que se desarrolla en combinación con otros síntomas de la crisis capitalista (aumento de la deuda, interrupción del transporte, etc.). En resumen, repetimos nuestra advertencia de que la economía mundial capitalista sigue estancada en la Gran Depresión que comenzó en el otoño de 2019. Después de la primera recesión en la primavera de 2020, ahora se dirige a una segunda.

 

2.            Una segunda recesión también tendrá consecuencias políticas dramáticas. Es muy probable que una crisis energética de este tipo provoque un "invierno oscuro". Es cierto que es invierno solo para la mitad norte del planeta. Sin embargo, una ola de calor en la mitad sur tendrá igualmente efectos negativos masivos para la crisis energética, es decir, también resultará en cortes de energía y aumentos de precios. La gente se verá obligada a vivir en casas frías (o muy calientes), la televisión, internet y la radio se verán interrumpidas, en fin, esta crisis tendrá efectos inmediatos y drásticos no solo para las corporaciones sino también para las masas populares. En nuestro Manifiesto de la CCRI publicado recientemente, caracterizamos el actual estado de decadencia de la sociedad de clases burguesa como “capitalismo catastrófico”. [28] ¡Los eventos actuales son una poderosa confirmación de nuestra evaluación!

 

3.            Esto provocará inevitablemente una crisis política masiva en muchos países. Socavará la credibilidad de los gobiernos. Llevará a la gente a las calles a protestar. Por lo tanto, es probable que un "invierno oscuro" provoque una crisis prerrevolucionaria y revolucionaria en varios países.

 

4.            Frente a desarrollos tan peligrosos, los gobiernos capitalistas harán todo lo posible para reprimir tales disturbios y desviar la atención del público. Hay varias posibilidades realistas de cómo podrían hacer esto. Primero, podrían declarar otra emergencia COVID y reclamar que se deben imponer nuevas restricciones u otras restricciones. Por supuesto, el verdadero propósito de tales acciones no sería superar la pandemia sino controlar a la población en una situación muy peligrosa para los gobiernos. Este fue, como hemos señalado repetidamente, también el propósito real de la política de cierre en la primavera de 2020, ya que muchos regímenes, desde China hasta Francia y Chile, se enfrentaron a levantamientos populares desde el verano de 2019 [29].

 

5.            Además, además de la pandemia, los gobiernos también intentarán desviar la atención pública provocando tensiones con otros estados. Como ha señalado la CCRI en varios documentos, varias regiones del mundo ya están desgarradas por las tensiones entre estados capitalistas. En los últimos años, hemos visto una aceleración masiva de la rivalidad entre las grandes potencias imperialistas. [30] El más importante de estos conflictos es la Guerra Fría entre las grandes potencias imperialistas de Estados Unidos y China. [31] Asimismo, las tensiones entre las potencias occidentales y Rusia se han intensificado recientemente. [32]Añádase a esto, por nombrar solo algunas, las tensiones en el Medio Oriente (por ejemplo, Israel-Irán; Argelia-Marruecos, Turquía-Siria), en África Oriental (por ejemplo, Egipto-Sudán-Etiopía), en el sur del Cáucaso donde recientemente se produjo una guerra entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán, o en el sur de Asia (por ejemplo, China-India, India-Pakistán, Tayikistán-Afganistán). Por último, este entorno de crisis aguda y caos refuerza las condiciones para golpes de Estado y guerras civiles (por ejemplo, Túnez, Etiopía, Sudán, Malí, Guinea).

 

 

 

Estrategia revolucionaria

 

 

 

6.            En resumen, el "invierno oscuro" crea las condiciones para una nueva fase de guerra y revolución. ¡La CCRI llama a todos los auténticos revolucionarios a prepararse para tal período! Esto significa, por un lado, defender una línea inquebrantable de lucha revolucionaria. Los revolucionarios deben oponerse a todos los ataques económicos y autoritarios que la clase dominante lanzará bajo el manto del “Invierno Oscuro” y defender los métodos de las luchas de masas y la autoorganización de los obreros y oprimidos. Frente a la Contrarrevolución COVID, los marxistas tienen que oponerse a ella y a todos los ataques relacionados (ataque a los derechos democráticos, Cierres, vigilancia, vacunación forzada, etc.). Tienen que apoyar huelgas y manifestaciones contra tales ataques (por ejemplo, en Italia y Francia). [33] Necesitan oponerse a todas las formas de militarismo y chovinismo. Ante los conflictos interimperialistas, tienen que asumir la posición del derrotismo revolucionario, es decir, oponerse a ambos lados y tratar de utilizar tales conflictos para debilitar y derrocar a los gobernantes imperialistas de ambos campos. Lo mismo se aplica a los conflictos reaccionarios entre estados capitalistas semicoloniales. En las guerras entre un opresor y un pueblo oprimido o en el caso de un golpe de Estado reaccionario o una guerra civil, los revolucionarios deben ponerse del lado de los oprimidos (sin prestar apoyo político a su dirección no revolucionaria). Por otro lado, los revolucionarios deben intervenir prácticamente - o jugar un papel iniciador siempre que sea posible - en las protestas populares contra los ataques de la clase dominante resultantes del “Invierno Oscuro”. En resumen, ¡la actual crisis del capitalismo plantea la tarea de transformar el "Invierno Oscuro" para las masas populares en un "Invierno Oscuro" para la clase dominante capitalista!

 

7. Los    revolucionarios deben combinar la intervención política y práctica en tales luchas de masas con un programa audaz para la revolución socialista. Un programa de este tipo debe defender formas de luchas de masas (manifestaciones de masas, huelgas, huelgas generales, etc.), así como formas de autoorganización de las masas, consejos de acción, asambleas populares, unidades armadas de autodefensa, etc. Los marxistas deben Explicar que es fundamental combinar las luchas de hoy con la tarea estratégica de quebrar el poder de la clase dominante (control obrero en empresas, consejos y milicias populares, gobiernos obreros y populares). El capitalismo catastrófico debe ser derrocado, no solo en un país sino a nivel mundial. Los acontecimientos actuales son una demostración contundente de que los problemas candentes de la humanidad no pueden resolverse en un solo país. Solo pueden ser abordados a escala global, por una federación mundial de repúblicas obreras y campesinas que elabore un plan internacional conjunto de producción, transporte, limitación y superación del cambio climático, etc.

 

8.            Trotsky señaló una vez: “La gran fuerza histórica de la Oposición (de izquierda), a pesar de su aparente debilidad, radica en el hecho de que mantiene sus dedos en el pulso de los procesos históricos mundiales, que percibe claramente la dinámica de las fuerzas de clase, que prevé el futuro y se prepara conscientemente para él". [34] Esta es de hecho la tarea de los revolucionarios de hoy y la CCRI, así como otros auténticos revolucionarios, han operado con esa perspectiva durante algún tiempo. ¡La tarea ahora es utilizar nuestra fuerza programática para promover la creación de un Partido Mundial Revolucionario! Repetimos las conclusiones de nuestro Manifiesto CCRI: Si está de acuerdo con nuestros objetivos, ¡únase a nosotros! ¡Adelante en la lucha por la revolución socialista mundial! ¡Que el fuego de la revolución queme al capitalismo catastrófico!

 

 

 

[1] Ver Capítulo II de CCRI: Perspectivas Mundiales 2021-22: Entrando en una situación global pre-revolucionaria, 22 de agosto 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/

 

[2] Michael Pröbsting: World Economy: Heading towards a Second Slump? 2 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/world-economy-heading-towards-a-second-slump/; by the same author: The Real Estate Bubble in Capitalist China. Evergrande, Fantasia, and Sinic make global investors tremble and for good reasons, 6 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/asia/the-real-estate-bubble-in-capitalist-china/

 

[3] The Economist, October 9th – 15th 2021

 

[4] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis: why is it happening, how bad is it, and what if it continues into the freezing winter months? 10 October 2021, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3151710/chinas-power-crisis-why-it-happening-how-bad-it-and-what-if?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[5] Keith Bradsher: China’s Power Problems Expose a Strategic Weakness, 13 October 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/13/business/china-electricity-shortage.html

 

[6] Anil Sharma: India faces a crisis as power shortage worsens, 13 October 2021, https://asiatimes.com/2021/10/india-faces-a-crisis-as-power-shortage-worsens/

 

[7] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4 Oct, 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[8] David Biller and Diane Jeantet: Brazil’s inflation hits double digits, punishing the poor, Associated Press, October 8, 2021, https://apnews.com/article/business-caribbean-brazil-rio-de-janeiro-prices-2b300ff78c5ae0003903a036b155a319

 

[9] James Ludden: UK government clears army to begin petrol deliveries from Monday, Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/uk-government-clears-army-to-begin-petrol-deliveries-from-monday

 

[10] Anna Shiryaevskaya, Vanessa Dezem and Elena Mazneva: Energy crunch: Natural gas prices in Europe hit record 100 euros, Bloomberg, 1 Oct 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/energy-crunch-natural-gas-prices-in-europe-hit-record-100-euro

 

[11] David Mchugh, Colleen Barry, Joe Mcdonald and Tatiana Pollastri: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches, 2021-10-19, https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-business-russia-health-70b97e36da53f62eba588b44f2b394bc

 

[12] Dewey Sim: Asia braces for fallout as China and Europe face energy crunch, 4 Oct, 2021, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3151021/asia-braces-fallout-china-and-europe-face-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed

 

[13] David Mchugh et al: Energy crunch hits global recovery as winter approaches

 

[14] Sam Carliner: Protests Erupt in Puerto Rico to Fight a Worsening Energy Crisis, Left Voice, October 17, 2021, https://www.leftvoice.org/protests-erupt-in-puerto-rico-to-fight-a-worsening-energy-crisis/

 

[15] Amanda Lee: China’s power crisis

 

[16] La CCRI ha analizado ampliamente la contrarrevolución del COVID-19 desde sus inicios. A partir del 2 de febrero de 2020, hemos publicado cerca de 100 folletos, ensayos, artículos y declaraciones más un libro: https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-2019-corona-virus/. En particular, remitimos a los lectores al Manifiesto de la CCRI: COVID-19: Una cubierta para una gran ofensiva contrarrevolucionaria global. Estamos en un punto de inflexión en la situación mundial a medida que las clases dominantes provocan. Estamos en un punto de inflexión en la situación mundial, ya que las clases dominantes provocan una atmósfera de guerra para legitimar la acumulación de regímenes bonapartistas de Estado chovinistas, 21 de marzo de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-a-cover-for-a-major-global-counterrevolutionary-offensive/. Véase también un nuevo Manifiesto de la CCRI: "Pase verde" y vacunas obligatorias: una nueva etapa en la contrarrevolución de COVID. Abajo la policía chovinista-bonapartista y el estado de vigilancia: ¡defiendan los derechos democráticos! No a la política de salud al servicio de los monopolios capitalistas: ¡expandir el sector de la salud pública bajo el control obrero y popular! 29 de julio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/green-pass-compulsory-vaccinations-a-new-stage-in-the-covid-counterrevolution/; Además, llamamos la atención sobre nuestro libro por Michael Pröbsting: La contrarrevolución global COVID-19: qué es y cómo combatirla. Un análisis y una estrategia marxistas para la lucha revolucionaria, RCIT Books, abril de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-covid-19-global-counterrevolution/. Vea también nuestro primer artículo sobre este tema por Almedina Gunić: Coronavirus: "No soy un virus" ... ¡pero NOSOTROS seremos la cura! La campaña chovinista detrás de la histeria del "coronavirus de Wuhan" y la respuesta revolucionaria, 2 de febrero de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/wuhan-virus/; Michael Pröbsting: The Second Wave of the COVID-19 Counterrevolution. On the ruling class strategy in the current conjuncture, its inner contradictions and the perspectives of the workers and popular resistance, 20 July 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-second-wave-of-the-covid-19-counterrevolution/; by the same author: The Police and Surveillance State in the Post-Lockdown Phase. A global review of the ruling class’s plans of expanding the bonapartist state machinery amidst the COVID-19 crisis, 21 May 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/police-and-surveillance-state-in-post-lockdown-phase/ ; COVID-19: The Great Barrington Declaration is indeed Great! Numerous medical scientists protest against the reactionary lockdown policy, 11 October 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/covid-19-the-great-barrington-declaration-is-indeed-great/; Michael Pröbsting: COVID-19: The Current and Historical Roots of Bourgeois Lockdown “Socialism”. Police State and Universal Basic Income are key elements of the new version of reformist “War Socialism” of 1914, 19 December 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/covid-19-the-current-and-historical-roots-of-bourgeois-lockdown-socialism/. Vea también varios artículos en español de nuestros compañeros argentinos: Juan Giglio: La izquierda de la "Big Pharma", dejó de defender las libertades, 1.10.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/10/la-izquierda-de-la-big-pharma-dejo-de.html; Juan Giglio: ¿Por qué la izquierda no cuestiona las políticas de la OMS? 8.9.2021, https://convergenciadecombate.blogspot.com/2021/09/por-que-la-izquierda-no-cuestiona-las.html

 

[17] Pierre Briançon: A Chinese Port Partially Closed Because of a Covid Infection. What to Know, 13 August 2021, https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-ningbo-zhoushan-meishan-port-closure-51628879754

 

[18] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21 September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), p. 11

 

[19] Mathias Cormannand Laurence Boone: OECD Interim Economic Outlook, 21 September 2021, Keeping The Recovery On Track (Presentation), p. 10

 

[20] Vea en esto, p. Ej. Vea en esto, p. Ej. Michael Pröbsting: Antiimperialismo en la era de la rivalidad de las Grandes Potencias. Los factores detrás de la creciente rivalidad entre los EE. UU., China, Rusia, la UE y Japón. Una crítica del análisis de la izquierda y un esbozo de la perspectiva marxista, RCIT Books, Viena 2019, Capítulo I, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/; por el mismo autor: The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, CCRI Pamphlet, May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; World Perspectives 2018: A World Pregnant with Wars and Popular Uprisings. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries, RCIT Books, Vienna 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2018/; The Great Robbery of the South. Continuity and Changes in the Super-Exploitation of the Semi-Colonial World by Monopoly Capital. Consequences for the Marxist Theory of Imperialism, RCIT Books, Vienna 2013, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/great-robbery-of-the-south/; World economy – heading to a new upswing? (2009), in: Fifth International, Volume 3, No. 3, Autumn 2009, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-economy-crisis-2009/; Imperialism, Globalization and the Decline of Capitalism (2008), in: Richard Brenner, Michael Pröbsting, Keith Spencer: The Credit Crunch - A Marxist Analysis, London 2008, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-and-globalization/; RCIT: Advancing Counterrevolution and Acceleration of Class Contradictions Mark the Opening of a New Political Phase. Theses on the World Situation, the Perspectives for Class Struggle and the Tasks of Revolutionaries (January 2016), Chapter II and III, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 46, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2016/.

 

[21] Michael Roberts: Profitability, investment and the pandemic, 17 May 2020, https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2020/05/17/profitability-investment-and-the-pandemic/

 

[22] Ibid

 

[23] See e.g. Thomas J. Duesterberg, Donald A. Norman: Why Is Capital Investment Consistently Weak in the 21st Century U.S. Economy, The Aspen Institute, April 2014, pp. 4-7; Oren Cass: We’re Just Speculating Here… The Rise of Wall Street and the Fall of American Investment, 25 March 2021, https://americancompass.org/essays/speculating-wall-street-investment/

 

[24] Economic Report of the President, February 2018, Washington, p. 399

 

[25] The Economist: Fossil fuels. Can’t live without them. Yet, 9 October 2021, p. 71

 

[26] Quoted in Kaelyn Forde: China power cuts, UK petrol woes: Why is there an energy crunch? 29 September 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/29/china-power-cuts-uk-petrol-woes-why-is-there-an-energy-crunch

 

[27] IMF: Fiscal Monitor. Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, October 2021, Washington, p. 5

 

[28] CCRI: ¡El fuego de la revolución consumirá el capitalismo catastrófico! Manifiesto por la lucha por la liberación de los trabajadores y oprimidos Documento adoptado por el III. Congreso de la CCRI, abril de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/rcit-fire-manifesto-2021/

 

[29] For an overview and a characterization of these events see, in addition the relevant statements on the individual countries, Michael Pröbsting: Are We Nearing a New “68 Moment”? A massive upsurge of global class struggle in the midst of a dramatic shift in the world situation 22 October 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/are-we-nearing-a-new-68-moment/

 

[30] La CCRI se ha ocupado en numerosas ocasiones de la rivalidad interimperialista de las grandes potencias. Ver p. Ej. el documento CCRI: Perspectivas Mundiales 2021-22: Entrar en una situación global prerrevolucionaria, 22 de agosto de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/world-perspectives-2021-22/; ver también: CCRI: El significado del Pacto AUKUS. Estados Unidos intensifica la Guerra Fría interimperialista contra China y provoca a la UE, 18 de septiembre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/the-meaning-of-the-aukus-pact/; Rusia dispara tiros de advertencia contra un buque de guerra del Reino Unido en el Mar Negro. ¡Abajo el belicismo frío! No hay apoyo para ninguna Gran Potencia imperialista, ¡ni Reino Unido, Estados Unidos ni Rusia! 24 de junio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/russia-fires-warning-shots-against-uk-warship-in-black-sea/; véanse también los dos folletos siguientes de Michael Pröbsting: “Una pelea realmente buena”. Reunión EE.UU.-China en Alaska: Continúa la Guerra Fría Interimperialista, 23 de marzo de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/us-china-alaska-meeting-shows-continuation-of-inter-imperialist-cold-war/; Siervos de dos amos. El estalinismo y la nueva guerra fría entre las grandes potencias imperialistas de Oriente y Occidente, 10 de julio de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/servants-of-two-masters-stalinism-and-new-cold-war/; para obtener más trabajos sobre este tema, consulte estas subpáginas: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/ and https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/collection-of-articles-on-the-global-trade-war/.

 

[31] La CCRI ha publicado numerosos documentos sobre el capitalismo en China y su transformación en una Gran Potencia. Vea en esto, p. Ej. nuestro libro de Michael Pröbsting: Antiimperialismo en la era de la rivalidad entre grandes potencias. Los factores detrás de la creciente rivalidad entre los EE. UU., China, Rusia, la UE y Japón. Crítica del análisis de la izquierda y esbozo de la perspectiva marxista, CCRI Books, Viena 2019, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/anti-imperialism-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry/. Véase también del mismo autor un ensayo publicado en la segunda edición de The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Imperialism and Anti-Imperialism (editado por Immanuel Ness y Zak Cope), Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 2020, https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007%2F978-3-319-91206-6_179-1; China‘s transformation into an imperialist power. A study of the economic, political and military aspects of China as a Great Power (2012), in: Revolutionary Communism No. 4, http://www.thecommunists.net/publications/revcom-number-4; ¿Cómo es posible que algunos marxistas sigan dudando de que China se ha vuelto capitalista? (Una crítica del PTS / FT), Un análisis del carácter capitalista de las empresas estatales de China y sus consecuencias políticas, 18 de septiembre de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism-2/; Incapaz de ver la madera de los árboles (PTS / FT y China). El empirismo ecléctico y el fracaso del PTS / FT en reconocer el carácter imperialista de China, 13 de agosto de 2020, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/pts-ft-and-chinese-imperialism/. Vea muchos más documentos de la CCRI en una subpágina especial en el sitio web de la CCRI: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/.

 

[32] La CCRI ha publicado numerosos documentos sobre el capitalismo en Rusia y su ascenso a una potencia imperialista. Vea en esto, p. Ej. varios folletos de Michael Pröbsting: The Peculiar Features of Russian Imperialism. A Study of Russia’s Monopolies, Capital Export and Super-Exploitation in the Light of Marxist Theory, 10 August 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-peculiar-features-of-russian-imperialism/; Russia and China: Neither Capitalist nor Great Powers? A Reply to the PO/CRFI and their Revisionist Whitewashing of Chinese and Russian imperialism, 28 November 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/russia-and-china-neither-capitalist-nor-great-powers-reply-to-po-crfi/; The Catastrophic Failure of the Theory of “Catastrophism”. On the Marxist Theory of Capitalist Breakdown and its Misinterpretation by the Partido Obrero (Argentina) and its “Coordinating Committee for the Refoundation of the Fourth International”, 27 May 2018, https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/the-catastrophic-failure-of-the-theory-of-catastrophism/; Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism and the Rise of Russia as a Great Power. On the Understanding and Misunderstanding of Today’s Inter-Imperialist Rivalry in the Light of Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism. Another Reply to Our Critics Who Deny Russia’s Imperialist Character, August 2014, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialism-theory-and-russia/; Russia as a Great Imperialist Power. The formation of Russian Monopoly Capital and its Empire – A Reply to our Critics, 18 March 2014, in: Revolutionary Communism No. 21, http://www.thecommunists.net/theory/imperialist-russia/. Vea varios otros documentos de la CCRI sobre este tema en una subpágina especial en el sitio web de la CCRI.: https://www.thecommunists.net/theory/china-russia-as-imperialist-powers/

 

[33] Vea en esto, p. Ej. CCRI: Italia: ¡Los estibadores se preparan para la huelga contra el Green Pass! ¡Solidaridad con esta importante lucha contra la Contrarrevolución del COVID! 13 de octubre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/italian-dockers-strike-against-green-pass/; Huelga general en Italia el 11 de octubre: ¡un importante paso adelante! Los sindicatos militantes de la vanguardia obrera inician con éxito protestas masivas, 12 de octubre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/general-strike-in-italy-on-11-october-an-important-step-forward/; Green Pass in Italy: International Dockworkers Council Supports the Struggle of the Port Workers! 20 October 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/europe/idc-supports-struggle-of-italian-port-workers-against-green-pass/; ver también Michael Pröbsting: ¿Por qué algunos socialistas se niegan a apoyar la lucha de masas contra el "Pase Verde"? PTS / FT, PSTU / LIT, IMT y PCL de cara a la última etapa de la Contrarrevolución COVID, 15 de octubre de 2021, https://www.thecommunists.net/worldwide/global/why-do-some-socialists-refuse-to-support-the-mass-struggle-against-the-green-pass

 

[34] Leon Trotsky: Reply to an Ultimatum (December 1928), in: Leon Trotsky: The Challenge of the Left Opposition (1928-29), Pathfinder Press, New York 1981, p. 364

 

 

 

대공황의 하나 중요한 특징, 그리고 경제적 원인과 정치적 결과

 

미하엘 프뢰브스팅, 혁명적 공산주의인터내셔널 (RCIT) 국제서기, 2021 10 23, www.thecommunists.net

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  편집자 : 다음 문서에는 그림 5개가 포함되어 있다. 그림들은 기술적인 이유로 첨부된 PDF 파일을 통해서만 있다.

 

8월에 우리는 세계경제의 경기상승 지속을 예견한 부르주아 경제학자들의 공식 낙관론 (많은 좌파 논평가들도 공유한) 믿지 말라고 경계를 촉구한 있다.[1] 3 전에 우리는 보다 상세하게 자본주의 세계경제가 대공황 번째 침체로 치닫고 있다고 설명했다.[2] 사이에 많은 부르주아 경제학자들도 미몽에서 깨어나 완전히 풀이 죽어 있다. 실제로 이들 진영에서는 패닉이 확산되고 있다. 서방 독점 부르주아지의 가장 명민한 대변인을 자처하는 이코노미스트 최신호에는 표지에 마트 진열대 사진과 함께 부족의 경제 (The shortage economy)”라는 헤드라인을 달았다.[3]

 

현재 새로운 침체로 넘어가는 과정에서 핵심 특징은 에너지 위기다. 세계 각지에서 에너지 대란이 일어나고 있다. 중국에서는 31 () 최소 20 당국이 전력 배급에 의존할 수밖에 없는 사정이다.