By Michael Pröbsting, Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 18 June 2026, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

The Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran has now been officially signed by the Presidents of both countries and published by various media. The official text is mostly identical with the versions which circulated already since last Sunday and which we reported in the RCIT statement from 15 June. ^[1] It fully confirms our assessment that the Iran War has resulted in a humiliating defeat of U.S. imperialism and the Zionist entity. ^[2]

 

The U.S. had to end its war against Iran without accomplishing any of its objectives – starting from regime change, “unconditional surrender”, weakening of the “Axis of Resistance” to the destruction of Teheran’s nuclear and missiles program. Not only this, but Iran also came out of the war significantly strengthened. The Memorandum accepts its control (together with Oman with which Teheran has close relations) of the Strait of Hormuz. Likewise, the U.S. will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like (all of this had been sanctioned for years). Furthermore, the Memorandum calls for an end of fighting also in Lebanon and confirms the territorial integrity of Lebanon – a formula which obligates Israel to stop its war against Hezbollah and to withdraw its troops from the country.

 

It is not merely anti-imperialist and pro-Iranian writers who speak about a defeat of the U.S. and Israel. There exists nearly a consensus among mainstream political observers that this war ended as a failure for the Trump Administration. Bloomberg’s Marc Champion speaks about “the hallmarks of defeat”, [3] and The Atlantic writes about “defeat” and “capitulation”. [4] The hardline Zionist Iran hawks in the Republican Party and the MAGA movement are in disbelief about Trump’s U-turn and public opinion in Israel is united in outrage about the Memorandum.

 

While the Zionists were triumphant in the past two years, despair is spreading now. Israeli channel i24News quotes a senior Israeli official saying: "If we had known that these would be the final results of the operation in terms of political habit, it is highly doubtful that we would have embarked on this event." Military affairs experts are warning that Iran is becoming a regional power. Alon Ben David, a veteran military correspondent of Channel 13 News, said that the emerging deal could be a blow to Israel's standing in the Middle East with far-reaching implications. "This is a dramatic day for Israel and for generations to come," adding that the agreement "marks a turning point in the Middle East". [5]

 

Sometimes there is a grain of truth in Trump’s weird statements. Yesterday, at the G7 summit in France, the American President tried to justify his U-turn from demanding Iran’s “total surrender” to accepting defeat. He said that without the deal with Iran, the world would have faced "bedlam" if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would have continued. “I didn’t want to see an economic catastrophe,” adding that "the one president I did not want to be was the late, great, Herbert Hoover,” the notorious U.S. President in 1929-33 during the worst depression years of modern history. Trump also said global oil reserves were set to run out if the commercial ships would not be allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz. "We run out of reserves at about four weeks”, adding that “if we keep bombing, those ships won't be going." [6] Such statements demonstrate that Iran was putting up effective resistance against the American-Zionist monster.

 

 

 

The decline of the U.S. as the global hegemon

 

 

 

So, what are the lessons of the Iran War in spring 2026, or the “Ramadan War” as it is often called in the Muslim world? First, it is a full confirmation of the Marxist analysis of the world situation which is characterised by the decline of the U.S. as the global hegemon, the rise of China (and Russia) as new imperialist powers and the crisis of the transatlantic alliance between America and Europe. [7] The emergence of new imperialist rivals goes hand in hand with the acceleration of the political and economic crisis of the U.S. The galloping rise of public debt pushes the Administration to use an increasing share of its income to serve its debt. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, interest costs consumed a record 3.25% of GDP and roughly 19% of all federal revenue in fiscal year 2025. [8]

 

At the same time, political polarisation in the U.S. deepens, resulting in mass protests of millions of people against the Trump Administration and its racist, authoritarian and militarist policy. This process goes hand in hand with an ideological crisis as citizens are less proud, less religiously unified and losing faith that the American Dream still works. Only 51% of Americans say they are extremely or very proud of being American, down sharply from 82% in 2013. [9]

 

Faced with such decline, as we did show in several documents, the U.S. states in its new National Security Strategy that in the next period it will not be able to dominate the whole world but rather focus on controlling the Western Hemisphere. [10]

 

The outcome of the war with a defeat for the U.S. confirms our thesis about its decline as a global power. It shows that those who still claim that the “American Empire” would dominate the world fail to understand the dynamics of global development, the depth of the crisis of the U.S. and its loosening control over parts of the world. [11]

 

 

 

Dysfunctional war and the existential crisis of Israel

 

 

 

This brings us to the next point. Given such decline, the RCIT has explained from the beginning of the war that this conflict is, from the side of the U.S., a dysfunctional war. We did show with a number of facts that this war was not a result of Washington’s strategy but rather of short-term political calculations given the extreme unpopularity of Trump and due to Zionist manipulations. Consequently, the Pentagon was badly prepared for such a war and when Iran did put up strong resistance, the U.S. was forced to retreat. [12]

 

Based on such an analysis we quickly understood that American imperialism had overreached and that Iran and its allies had good prospects to resist the brutal onslaught. ^[13]

 

In contrast, the war was in full accordance with the strategic interests of Israel. However, the Zionist entity is only a junior imperialist power and without the U.S. it could hardly survive (as Trump reminded the insubordinate Netanyahu recently). It is exactly for this reason why the outcome of the Iran War is so catastrophic for Israel. It is not only because the war failed to achieve their goals and not only because Iran came out much stronger. The result of the war is probably even more devastating because it provoked the most serious crisis in the alliance between the Washington and the Zionist state. And such a crisis takes place with the most right-wing and Zionist Administration in power in the U.S.! There is no other relevant political force in the U.S. which would be more pro-Israel.

 

In fact, what we have seen in recent months is not merely a personal fallout between the two “strong men” but rather a rupture in the strategic relationship between U.S. imperialism and the Zionist state. What is the cause of this development? First, as mentioned before, the U.S. is in decline, and this pushes it to deprioritise its engagement in the Middle East. America can no longer afford to have so many military bases, ships and troops in the region. This is why they did hope to stabilise the region with Israel as the strongest force and a network of Arab states allied with the Zionist entity on the basis of the so-called Abraham Accords. This has been Washington’s strategy for a number of years and the 7 October uprising of the Palestinian resistance was directed against this process.

 

The combination of the heroic struggle of the Palestinian resistance, the revival of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and now Iran’s victory have destroyed the U.S. plan for the Middle East. In fact, the Zionist state is facing its most serious crisis with an increasing number of settlers leaving the country. Our comrades of the Internationalist Socialist League in Occupied Palestine doubt if this state will survive for another decade. [14] In the end, despite the terrible situation in Gaza, the hopes of the initiators of the 7 October to sabotage the Zionist normalisation process uprising could finally be fulfilled.

 

In any case, there is no doubt that the political crisis in Israel will escalate. Likewise, the defeat of the American-Zionist monster has put the regional order in the Middle East in crisis. It is likely that as a result of its defeat, the U.S. will reduce its military presence on the region. The Arab regimes will have to think about new alliances or at least adding new allies (for example China, Russia, Pakistan, Türkiye, Iran) given the decline and unreliability of the U.S. Furthermore, the outcome of the war and the public demonstration that resistance against the imperialist aggressors is possible and can win will massively undermine the already eroded legitimacy of the tyrannic regimes. Look at Lebanon, where the coward army never fires a shot against the Zionists – but Hezbollah and Iran managed to stop them! It is clear that the Iranian victory will have inspiring effects throughout the whole region and encourage the oppressed masses to push for war against the American-Zionist monster.

 

 

 

Siding with Iran in this war was the only correct position

 

 

 

Finally, the outcome of the war confirmed the position of the RCIT and all authentic Marxists to take the side of Iran and its allies in their war against the imperialist aggression. From the very beginning of the war, we said “Defend Iran – Defeat the American-Zionist monster!” [15]

 

This means we supported their resistance on the basis of the anti-imperialist united front tactic without lending political support to the regime. We participated in numerous anti-war activities showing our solidarity with Iran’s resistance. [16]

 

Unfortunately, many leftists failed to take such a principled stance. They took a shameful position of equidistance between the U.S. and Iran, claiming these would both represent evil forces. Such leftists completely ignore the Marxist axiom that the character of a war is not determined by the nature of the governments but by the class character of these states. In this case, we had a war with the largest imperialist power and a smaller one on one side (the U.S. and Israel) and Iran as a capitalist semi-colony on the other side. For Marxists, taking a position of neutrality in such a conflict is treachery!

 

Other platonically sided with Iran, saying that it “has a right of self-defence” but refrained from advocating its military victory and participating in practical solidarity activities with Iran during the war. In reality, Iran had not only the right but the duty to fight against the imperialist aggressors and, equally, did socialists have the duty to support such resistance.

 

Socialists are tested in historic events. The Iran War is such a historic event as it will accelerate the decline of U.S. imperialism as well as of the Zionist settler state and it will reorder the Middle East. We are proud to have stood on the right side of history in this war!