On the causes, contradictions and perspectives for the new military escalation in the Middle East

 

By Michael Pröbsting, Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT), 15 July 2026, www.thecommunists.net

 

 

 

Do we witness the renewal of the Iran War which temporarily ended on 14 June with the so-called Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)? [1] Or is this rather a short-term escalation which will result in new rounds of negotiations? In order to answer this question, it is necessary to look at the results of the 40-days war (or the Ramadan War, as Iran often calls it) and the factors which resulted in the ceasefire. ^[2]

 

As we did explain in our documents on the war, this conflict was not so much the result of a strategic plan of U.S. imperialism as the Trump Administration wants to focus on the Western Hemisphere because of its decline as a hegemonic power. The attack of the American-Zionist monster on Iran was rather the result of conjunctural factors – most importantly Trump’s desperate desire to have a “small, victorious war” given his huge unpopularity as well as the manipulations of Netanyahu and the Zionist lobby. ^[3]

 

In the end, the imperialist warmongers completely failed to achieve their objectives. They could not topple the regime – it became rather more determined to resist the aggression. The massive turnout of up to 43 million people at the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader who was murdered by the American-Zionist aggressor, demonstrated that the regime could rather rebuild some popular support. Neither could they stop Teheran’s nuclear and missiles programs, nor could they not defeat the “Axis of Resistance”.

 

Worse for the Trump and Netanyahu, Iran effectively took control of the Strait of Hormuz and Hezbollah offered stubborn resistance against the Zionist invasion in Lebanon. The conditions of the MoU and the disappointment and outrage it provoked in the American as well as in the Israeli establishment reflected the humiliating outcome of the war. ^[4]

 

 

 

Background

 

 

 

Why has the conflict escalated again in the last days? Basically, the Trump Administration tries to reverse the advantageous results of the MoU for Iran by undermining the latter control of the Strait of Hormuz and by refusing to deliver the frozen assets to Iran. In addition, they also try to undermine the commitment to withdraw the Israeli troops from Lebanon.

 

However, as we did explain, Iran came out of the war in a strengthened position, and it is therefore not willing to accept such violations of the MoU conditions. Hence, Teheran has insisted that ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz must do so in coordination with the relevant Iranian authorities. When the U.S. encouraged ships to secretly cross the Strait close to the coast of Oman in violation of the MoU, Iranian forces shot at such ships. When the U.S. bombed targets in Iran, the later retaliated with launching waves of drones and missiles against American military bases in the region. As a result, the maritime traffic through the Strait has effectively come to a halt.

 

The latest declarations of the Trump Administration indicate, at least if one takes these literally (always a challenge on the era of the orange clown), an unprecedented escalation. Such said the U.S. President: "We are reinstating the THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving. All other countries will have fair and open use of the Strait." He added: “The U.S.A... will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped, for any and all costs necessary to do the job of providing safety and security to this very volatile section of the World." He said the process would begin immediately but did not elaborate. "We're going to keep the strait, and we'll probably run it. We'll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we'll call it the guardian angel of the strait. And we should be reimbursed for that. (…) We're going to be reimbursed, because the other nations are very wealthy. They're on our side, and we can't be expected to do that for nothing." [5]

 

Naturally, the renewal of the blockade has dramatic consequences for oil price and therefore the world economy. On Monday, the oil price had risen as much as 10%. But Trump’s threat to impose a toll of 20% on all cargo shipped is of course much more explosive. If put into reality, it would increase the oil price dramatically. Clearly, this provokes outrage amongst America’s allies in the Guld region and globally.

 

True, Trump – a man who personifies the negation of strategic thinking – dropped the idea of the tolls 24 hours later. Nevertheless, this threat destroys the longstanding position which the Trump Administration and its allies have touted that maritime trade in the Strait must be free und unrestricted and that Iran’s demand for tolls or fees would be unacceptable. Just last month, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iran’s attempts to collect tolls “illegal.” ^[6]

 

 

 

What does Trump want?

 

 

 

How can Trump’s recent turn to restart the war be explained and how serious is it? First, we do not believe that Trump’s threats to blockade the Strait and to impose tolls represent a new strategy. The Administration had to accept the 14-point MoU exactly because the political and financial costs for continuing the war had become too high. A new blockade of the Strait (and tolls even more) would produce again such unbearable costs or even worse for the U.S. and its allies.

 

Secondly, one factor why the Trump Administration had to agree to the MoU was that the high oil price worsened the prospects of the Republicans for the midterm elections in November. This is now even more the case as these elections are nearing.

 

Thirdly, there have been no visible efforts of the U.S. to expand its military presence in the region in the past weeks which would be a precondition for a long-term renewal of war. In addition, there are no signs that Iran would be now prepared to accept the demands of the U.S. Quite the opposite, Teheran is more confident than before the war.

 

For all these reasons it does not seem to us that the latest escalation of the American aggression against Iran reflect a strategic shift on behalf of the Trump Administration. Trump’s threats are probably rather a negotiation tactic in hope that Iran will become more bendable. One should also not exclude the possibility that Trump who claims that his allies would be happy to pay a 20% toll (of course, they were not asked before), uses this tactic in order to open for him an option to withdraw from the conflict. If the allies balk to pay the tolls, Trump could make another 180-degree turn and withdraw from the war saying that it is not his fault but that of his allies.

 

However, one must not forget that war has its own laws and unexpected developments – a regional expansion of the war, sudden cracks within the Iranian regime, a dramatic provocation of the Zionist state, etc. – could push the Trump Administration to fully engage in a long-term war.

 

 

 

Divisions within the Arab Gulf states

 

 

 

There are also other factors which need to be taken into account. In the past weeks, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has escalated. Bank transfers from Saudi Arabia to accounts in the United Arab Emirates had been delayed, blocked or returned without explanation. This has massive negative impact on the trade at the border between the two states.

 

In early May, the UAE had left the OPEC alliance and there have been military clashes between the respective allies of the two powers in Yemen in the months before the start of the Iran War. [7] During the war, the UAE initially turned closer to the U.S. and Israel albeit in more recent weeks it appears to have preferred a deescalation with Iran.

 

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia – the most important Arab Gulf state – has advocated a more conciliatory policy towards Iran in recent months. At some point, it did stop allowing the U.S. to use its military bases for their war against Iran and, in return, Teheran stopped bombing Saudi Arabia. In general, support for America’s war against Iran among the Gulf allies has substantially weakened and they have started to look for other powers as security guarantors. Saudi Arabia has deepened its military relations with Pakistan and Türkiye.

 

 

 

Renewal of the war in Yemen?

 

 

 

However, in the last days, a new conflict erupted in the Gulf region. Emboldened by their military successes in the war, Iran and the Houthis – their allies in Yemen – have restarted flights between Teheran and Sanaa. For more than a decade, Saudi Arabia had prohibited such flights. Now, fearing to lose its leverage in Yemen, Saudi forces bombed the airport in Sanaa to stop an Iranian airplane from landing. In retaliation, the Houthis – officially known as Ansar Allah – fired missiles against Saudi airports and called airlines to avoid the Saudi airspace. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, threatened to impose a siege on Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the Saudi siege against Yemeni airports. [8]

 

This is a potentially explosive and important development. It could result in the renewal of the war in Yemen which – after the Saudi-UAE invading forces and their local allies failed to defeat the Houthis – had resulted in a relatively stable ceasefire in 2022.

 

A new confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah would also have dramatic global consequences as it could provoke the Houthis to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the southern entry point to the Red Sea. This is – similar to the Strait of Hormuz – one of the most important maritime transport corridors linking East and South Asia with Europe via the Suez Channel (the alternative route around the African continent takes much more time and costs). The Houthis did already impose a de facto blockade in response to the Zionist genocide in Gaza after 7 October.

 

A simultaneously blockade of both Straits – Hormuz as well as Bab al-Mandeb – would have catastrophic consequences for the world economy. Roughly 7.9% of global maritime trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz, including one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas, and about 12% of global trade passes through Bab al-Mandeb Strait. [9] Such a double blockade would be particularly harmful for Saudi Arabia as it tries to continue its exports to Asia via the Red Sea (and consequently via the Bab al-Mandeb Strait) after Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz.

 

However, one must not ignore that such a renewal of the Yemeni war also offers an opportunity for the U.S. It could push Saudi Arabia to intensify its support for Trump’s war against Iran. Importantly, Axios reports that President Trump gave Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman his support for this aggression against the Houthis. ^[10] Does this reflect a new realignment of the two country’s strategy towards Iran? Until now, Saudi Arabia has been cautious in avoiding an escalation of its conflicts with Iran and the Houthis. A new confrontation is risky for Riyad as they will be left out in the rain if Trump decides to strike another deal with Theran next week. But it is also risky for Iran and the Houthis as it could reunite the Arab Gulf states and the U.S. around a strategy of aggression.

 

 

 

Revolutionary position

 

 

 

From the very beginning of this conflict, the Revolutionary Communist International Tendency (RCIT) has denounced the war of the American-Zionist monster against Iran. We take the side of Iran without lending political support to the bourgeois-capitalist regime in Teheran. The same approach applies to the just wars of national defence of Hezbollah against Israel as well as of the Houthis against the Saudi-UAE forces.

 

A military victory of Iran and its allies would be an important blow for imperialism as it would massively weaken America’s domination in the Middle East. Furthermore, it would be a devastating outcome for the Apartheid state Israel and, hence, aid the Palestinian people in their liberation struggle.

 

However, it would be an illusion to imagine that U.S. and Israeli imperialism could be expelled from the region by military force of Iran and its allies alone. In order to destroy the American-Zionist monster the conflict must be transformed into a popular war of the oppressed masses in the whole region. Anti-imperialist forces in all countries must work towards mobilising the workers and peasants in a struggle for the overthrow of the reactionary regimes, for the closure of all foreign military bases and for the rupture of any ties with Israel.

 

Such a revolutionary wave could aid the heroic Palestinian people and destroy the Zionist settler state – opening the road to build a free Palestine from the river to the sea. We call for the creation of workers and fellahin republics in Palestine, Lebanon, Iran and all other countries of the Middle East as part of a socialist federation.